Agricultural Prices Increase In March

The latest national statistics produced by Defra on agricultural price indices in the UK were released recently and show that prices on the whole incrased between February and March 2012 and between 2010 and 2011. The monthly index of producer prices of agricultural products for March 2012 was 169 compared with 166.2 for February, an increase of 1.02%. The annual index for 2011 was 163.7 compared with 2010 when it was 144.9,a 1.13% increase. The monthly index of purchase prices of the means of agricultural production for March 2012 was 152 compared to February's 150.3, giving an increase of 1.01%. The annual index for 2011 was 151.2 up from 135.6 in 2010 or 1.12% increase.

An Increase In Agricultural Price Indices In September

The index of prices received by producers for the total of all agricultural products for September 2011 was 165.7, up from 159.2 in August.

The index of prices paid by producers for the total of all means of agricultural production for September 2011 was 153.1, up from 153.0 in August. The slight increase in purchase prices being covered by the larger increase in production prices. There was an increase in the price of fuel. Confidence is returning to cereals markets after fears of bad harvest weather subsided and prices retruned to normal after increasing earlier in the year. Potato prices started well this year as bad weather reduced availability. News of adequate harvests reduced fears and prices came down again.

Milk prices have increased steadily over the last 18 months with good demand and supply ensuring a good market. Good market conditions also apply to the beef market. Sheep and lamb prices have been sustained but prime prices are beginning to tail off.

Services Growth 0.8%

The index of services rose by 0.8% in April 2011 compared with April 2010. Transport, storage and communication services made the largest contribution with an increase of 3.7% within which air transport increased by 23.3%.

Production Continues To Grow

The index of production for September was 3.8% higher than September 2009. The index for October 2010 rose by 3.3% compared with 2009. The index of manufacturing was 4.8% higher in September and 5.8% higher in October. Output increased in 10 of the 13 sub-sectors in both September and October and fell in 2 in September and 3 in October with the largest increases in machinery and equipment and basic metals and metal products in both months with increases of 21% and 12.6% respectively in September and 16.8% and 13.7% respectively in October.

In the euro area industrial production increased by 5.2% in September 2010 compared with September 2009 and 5.8% in the EU27. Capital goods grew by 7.5% in euro area and 8.7% in EU27, intermediates by 6.8% and 7.5% respectively, energy by 1.8% and 0.8%, non-durables by 1.6% and 2.5% respectively and durables by 0.2% in euro area and 2.2% in EU27.

Services Index Up by 1.4%

The ONS Index of Services increased by 1.4% in June 2010 compared with June 2009. Four of the five components increased over the year. Distribution increased by 4.2%, business services and finance by 1.7%, hotels and restaurants by 0.9% and government and other services by 0.7%. The only component to show a decrease was transport, storage and communication with -1.7%. It was a very similar picture over the quarter the only difference being hotels and restaurants which remained unchanged.

Retail Sales Up 2.5%

The value of retail sales in June 2010 went up by 2.5% compared with June 2009 according to the ONS Retail Sales Index. The index stood at 116.3 compared with 116.2 in May 2010 an increase of 0.1% and 113.5 in June 2009. The volume rose by 1.3%. The index was 113.1 compared with 111.7 in June 2009 and 112.3 in May 2010 an increase of 0.7%.

In food stores the value of sales was up by 1.7% on a year ago while the volume was 0.2% lower. The value of sales rose by 3.7% in non-food stores along with an increase of 4.4% in the volume of sales. Household goods rose by 4.4% in value and 6.1% in volume, textiles, clothing and footwear increased in sales value by 3.3% and in volume by 4.2%. The non-specialised store category sales increased in value by 9.1% and volume increased by 10.3%. Non-store retailing increased sales values by 14.1% and volume by 14.8%. The figures are seasonally-adjusted.

Non-seasonally adjusted prices were estimated to have risen by 1.3% compared with June 2009. The value of fuel sales was 3.6% lower than last year but the volume was 15.9% lower. The value of Internet retail sales in June was estimated to have been £437m which equates to 7.9% of total retail sales (excluding fuel). The total value of sales in June 2010 was estimated to have been £30.9bn (non-seasonally-adjusted) and the average weekly value was £6.2bn.

Different sized retailers have a mix of experiences in terms of growth of sales value and volume. The biggest retailers with over 100 employees reported an average 3.3% increase in sales between June 2009 and June 2010. The smallest retailers, with 0-9 employees, sales fell by 0.9% over the same period. Those employing 40-69 employees experienced 51.3% growth over the year but businesses with 70-99 employees saw their sales decrease by 45.7%.

Retail Volumes Fall By 1.2% In Europe

The volume of retail trade in both the euro area and the EU27 decreased by 1.2% in April 2010 compared with March 2010. The retail sales index for April 2010 compared with April 2009 was 1.5% in the euro area and 1.6% in the EU27.

The food sector in the euro area fell by 1.1% and 1.4% in the EU27 over the month to April 2010 and the non-food sector by 1.1% and 1.2% respectively. Total retail trade fell in 14 countries and rose in 5 given the data available. The biggest falls were in Poland -8.7%, Denmark -8.6%, Slovakia -3.6% and Spain -2.1%. The highest risers were Belgium with 1.8% and Germany with 1%.

Over the last year from April 2009 to April 2010 the food sector fell by 1.8% in the euro area and 2.7% in the EU27 and non-food fell by 1.1% in the euro area but rose slightly by 0.1% in the EU27. Given the national data available, among the member states, the index fell in 15 countries and rose in 4. Bulgaria and Lithuania both fell 11.7%, Denmark -8.3% and Latvia fell 7.7%. Malta's index rose by 8.7% and Belgium's by 0.7%. Statistics from Eurostat.

Increase In European Industrial PPI In March

The monthly industrial producer price index for the euro area went up 0.6% and the EU27 0.7% in March 2010 compared with February 2010. Price rises in the energy sector increased by 1.7% i the euro area and 1.6% in the EU27. Durable consumer goods also rose by 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27. Capital goods were unchanged in the euro area but increased by 0.2% in the EU27. Non-durables fell by 0.1% and remained stable respectively.

The index went up by 0.9% in the euro area and 1.7% in the EU27 in March 2010 compared with March 2009. The total industry index excluding energy 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27. The prices index in the energy sector rose by 2.8% and 5.12% respectively. Intermediate goods rose by 0.8% in both zones. Durables increased by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU27. Non-durables fell by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Capital goods fell by 0.5% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU27.

House Prices Up 7.4%

UK house prices up 7.4% on February 2009 compared to 6.2% last year and 0.1% lower than January. The index (HPI) stood at 171.4. The mix-adjusted average house price in UK was £204,359 in February 2010 compared to £207,825 last year. UK house prices up 2.9% in the quarter ending February and 3.4% higher than last quarter. First time buyers annual average price in February 2010 was 9.3% higher than last year. Former owner occupiers annual average price was 6.6% higher than last year. Average annual house price for new houses was 3.9% higher. Average house price for pre-owned houses was 8.2% higher.

There was an increase in house prices in all countries of the UK except N.Ireland in the year to February. In England the increase was 7.9%, in Scotland 4.2% and in Wales 4.7%. In N.Ireland house prices fell by an average of 8.3% on February last year.

In the regions the mix-adjusted average fell in all regions except the North-East. The annual house price changes in England were lowest in the North-East at 3.5%, 3.9% in the West Midlans, 5.1% in Yorks and Humber and the East Midlands, 5.3% in the North-West, in the South-West it was 7.5%, 8.5% in the East, 10% in the South-East and highest in London at 10.6%. House prices in London averaged £321,289 and the North-East averaged £137,523. The average mix-adjusted house price for England was £211,299, Scotland £167,865, N.Ireland £167,832 and Wales £159,865. The South-West, East, South-East and London were above the UK national average of £204,359.

The average price paid by first time buyers was £149,490 and by former owner occupiers £238,185. Tne average price paid for pre-owned properties was £206,142 and new properties £181,783.

UK Officially Out Of Recession

The latest GDP preliminary estimates show that Britain is officially out of recession. According to the ONS, GDP increased by 0.1% in the fourth qaurter of 2009. The index increased from 100.6 to 100.7 (100=2005). It means the recession is over, recovery has begun and if it can be maintained we can look towards growth. The increase is mainly due to the distribution, hotels and restaurants category with an increase of 0.4% and govermnent services with an increase of 0.2%. Output in both the production and the service industries increased by 0.1%. Between Q4 2008 and Q4 2009 GDP decreased by 3.2%.

These preliminary GDP estimates may be revised upward or downward during the next few weeks until the end of February when the Output, Input and Expenditure (OIE) estimates are published. The full set will be published in the Quarterly National Accounts in April.

Fall In Production In November

Production was 6% lower year-on-year in November 2009. Mining and quarrying was 6.5% down on last year and oil and gas down 4.1%. Energy supplies fell 10.6% over the same period. These decreases were slightly offset by an increase in water supply output.

Production increased 0.4% between October and November 2009. Mining and quarrying output increased by 5.9%, oil and gas 7.2%. Energy output went up 3.5% on the month. The gas supply output helped offset decreases in electricity and water supply output.

Manufacturing output showed an annual decline of 5.4% in November. Machinery and equipment at 17.4% showed the biggest declines while basic metals and metal products decreased by 12.1%. The transport equipment industries showed the largest annual increases with output going up by 2.8% which also reported an increase of 3.5% month on month.

Manufacturing Output Unchanged

Manufacturing output was 'flat' in the quarter to August 2009 compared to the previous quarter according to Office for National Statistics latest Index of Production bulletin. The manufacturing index stood at 87.8. Between July and August the index had fallen by 1.9%. The overall production index was at 87.4 for the second quarter and 85.9 for August.

Over the quarter the 'flat' output resulted from increases of 7.8% in transport equipment, 9.3% in wood and wood products and 3.1% in the rubber and plastic products industries. Between July and August, the most significant decreases were 2.4% in the paper, printing and publishing services, 2.4% in the electrical and optical equipment services and 1.7% in food, drink and tobacco industries. Electricity, water and gas supply output increased by 0.1% over the quarter but between July and August it fell by 0.5%.

Consumer durables output fell by 1.4% on the quarter and 15.1% on last year. Between July and August it fell by 1%. Consumer non-durables output, including fmcgs, fell by 1.6% in the quarter and 3.2% on the year and between July and August fell by 1.9%. Capital items increased by 1.4% over the quarter but is 13.7% lower than last year. Between July and August capital items fell by 1.6%. Intermediate goods and energy was unchanged but 12.5% lower than last year. Out put decreased 3.3% between July and August.

Manufacturing Increases Again This Month

Manufacturing output has increased by 0.2 per cent in the last three months compared to the previous three months. The increase in output between June and July was by 0.9 per cent. The ONS index for manufacturing in July was 89.6.

The most significant rises were in wood and wood products at 8.4%, transport equipment at 6.9% and rubber and plastic products at 3.9%. There were also increases in food and drink and non-metallic mineral products. The biggest fallers were machinery and equipment at -2.7%, electrical and optical equipment at -1.9%, basic metals and metal products at -1.5% and pulp, paper, printing and publishing at -1.1%.

Output of consumer durables rose by 1.9% but consumer non-durables fell by 0.6% over the quarter. Output of capital goods rose by 0.5% and intermediate goods and energy industries were unchanged. Figures are from ONS Index for Production.

Computers Lead Decline In Business Services Output

The ONS Index of Services for the quarter to June shows that the index for output (seasonally-adjusted chained volume of gross value added or GVA) fell by 0.6% compared with the previous quarter. Taking the index back to April it increased by 0.2%. The index comprises five components: distribution, hotels and restaurants, transport and communication, business services and finance and government and other services.

In the quarter to June the only increase was in hotels and restaurants at 0.8%. In the latest month the greatest increase was in distribution. There was a decrease of 0.8% in business services and finance. The most significant decreases were in computer services and other business services.

Services accounted for over 76% of gross domestic GDP in 2005. The data for the index are consistent with the quarterly OIE data from earlier releases on GDP in August 2009.

Production Index Down This Quarter

Production was down to 1.8% to 87.0 compared with the previous three months and down 12.3% on the year. Manufacturing output decreased by 1.2% , mining and quarrying by 2.7% and electricity, gas and water supply industries by 5.5% on the previous quarter according to the Office for National Statistics. The most significant falls in manufacturing were in basic metals and metal products, machinery and equipment and transport equipment industries. There were rises in food and drink and chemicals. Consumer durables and consumer non-durables were up, durables by 1.2% and non-durables by 1.7% on the last three months, both still down on a year ago. Over the last month durables increased output by 6.6% non-durables decreased by 0.9%. Both capital goods and intermediate goods and energy fell on the month, the quarter and the year. The production index has continued on a downward trend, with some fluctuations, since March 2008 when figures were new or started to be revised by the ONS.

GDP Down 1.9%

Preliminary estimates of GDP for the first quarter of 2009 from the Office for National Statistics on GDP by gross value added (GVA) suggest a decline of 1.9% on the last quarter compared with 1.6% the previous quarter. They also suggest it was 4.1% lower than 2008. The index for GDP at market prices was 108.1 and has been in decline for 5 successive quarters.

Production which represents about 18% of the UK economy was down 5.5%, a negative acceleration on 4.5%, driven by manufacturing. Agriculture, which now represents only 1% of the economy, actually grew by 0.3% in Q1 2009. It may only reflect the early estimated output from agriculture from DEFRA. Services, representing 75% of the UK economy, reported a fall of 1.2% drove the decline along with production and construction. It compares with a decline of 0.8% in the previous quarter. Of the total, distribution, hotels and restaurants (15% of the economy) also increased by 1.2% thanks mostly to wholesale and motor trades. Business services and finance, which represents about 30% of the economy, declined by 1.8% in Q1 2009. Five of the eight components of the category declined with 'other business services' (10% of GDP) making the biggest contribution. Government services increased by 0.5% on the quarter and 1% on the year.

The Quarterly National Accounts for Q1 2009 show a fall of 2.4% on the previous quarter revised down from 1.9%. It is 4.9% lower than Q1 2008. The index was 110.9 for GDP at market prices and 101.9 for chained volume measures. The household saving ration was 3% compared with 4% in previous quarter. Real household disposable income fell by 2.4% following a 2.4% rise last year. Household final consumption fell by 1.3% compared to a 1.1% fall in the previous quarter. The volume of spending is 3.1% lower than at the same time in 2008. Both government and households were net borrowers. Financial corporations, private non-financial corporations and public corporations were among the net lenders.

Chemicals And Consumer Non-Durables Up

Production output decreased by 3.2% in 3 months to April and was 12.6% down on last year. Manufacturing was also down 2.8% and the mining and quarrying industries by 4.0% on the quarter and 9.3% on the year. The most significant rises in the manufacturing industry were 3.2% in the transport equipment industries, 2.3% in chemicals and 1.6% in paper, printing and publishing. The utilities were down 5.5%. It was similar for basic metals and metal products at 2.2%.

In the three main market sectors, output of consumer durable goods fell by 4.7%, non-durables were 1.9% up on the quarter and 0.8% up on the month. Capital goods were 5.6% down on the last quarter but 0.8% up on the month. Output of intermediate goods and energy were also lower. Food, drink and tobacco were up on the last quarter with a 1.6% increase.

The ONS's Index of Production is an important short-term indicator of industrial activity. It is a monthly time series covering 18.0% of the UK economy.

Low Production Figures But Non-Durables Up

The index of production for the first quarter saw a 5.3% decrease quarter on quarter and 12.1% decrease on the first quarter of 2008. Manufacturing was 5.5% lower and electricity, gas and water decreased 3.5% on the previous quarter. Manufacturing also showed the lowest rate of decline for 13 consecutive months with a 0.1% decrease between February and March. The March index was 88.0.

In the main industrial groups output of durable goods fell 8.0% on previous quarter, consumer non-durable goods went up 0.3% on February, capital itmes were 8.9% lower and intermediate goods and energy 6.6% lower than last quarter. Other significant falls included machinery and equipment.