China And Hong Kong Help UK Trade

The UK trade deficit grew from £1.8bn in August 2014 to £2.8bn in September 2014 according to estimates from the ONS. The deficit is made up of a deficit of £9.8bn on goods and a surplus of £7bn on services.

Over the month the trade in goods deficit increased by £0.9bn as exports increased but imports particularly from countries outside the EU increased even more.

The quarterly comparison shows that between Q2 and Q3 2014 the trade in goods deficit increased also by £0.9bn to £29bn. Exports fell by £0.3bn and imports increased by £0.6bn.

The UKs largest trading partner in terms of the value of goods exported and imported remains Germany but Q3 2014 recorded the largest ever deficit with Germany due to falling exports and rising imports. The UK surplus with the US hit an 8 year low but it was partially offset by better trade figures with China and Hong Kong.

Trade Deficit In Goods Now £27.4bn

The deficit on UK trade in goods widened by £0.9bn to £27.4bn in Q2 2014 compared with a deficit of £26.5bn in Q1 2014. There was a change in value of -£0.5bn or 0.7% in total exports to £71.3bn and a change of -£0.4bn or 0.4% to £98.7bn in total imports in Q2 2014.

At the level of the change in value by industry, exports in agriculture, forestry and fishing products fell by £45m and imports fell by £9m. Information and communications services exports increased by £25m and imports also increased by £2m. In professional, scientific and technical services exports fell by £3m and imports fell by £1m. Arts, entertainment and recreation imports increased by £91m and imports fell by £198m.

GDP Up 0.8% For Second Quarter

The increase in GDP for the second quarter remained at 0.8% unrevised from the preliminary estimate of July and is the second consecutive quarterly increase of 0.8% according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

Agricultural output decreased by 0.2% and construction remained flat but output in two of the four main industrial groupings increased in Q2 compared with Q1. Production increased by 0.3% and services by 1%.

On the annual comparison GDP for the second quarter of this year was 3.2% higher than Q2 2013. The figure is revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 3.1%.

EA Inflation Expected To Fall To 0.5%

Euro area inflation (MUICP) is expected to fall to 0.5% in May 2014 from 0.7% in April according to the latest flash estimate from Eurostat. The services sector is expected to have the highest rate in May with 1.1%, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco with 0.1%, non-energy industrial goods and energy bot with 0.0%.

Trade Deficit Down To £1.3bn In March

Trade activity in March 2014 reported a deficit of £ 1.3bn compared with February's deficit of £1.7bn. The figure of £1.3bn is a result of a deficit of £8.5bn in trade in goods and a surplus of £7.2bn in trade in services.

Exports increased by 4.9% and imports by 2.8% between February and March 2014. The increase in exports to £24.6bn was due to increases in the export of finished manufactures, jewellery and cars. The increase in imports to £33.1bn was mainly due to an increase in the import of aircraft.

The quarterly comparison for Q1 2014 shows a decrease of 3.7% to £72bn in the export of goods and of 2.8% to £98.7bn in imports.

Trade Deficit Narrows To £2.1bn

The deficit in the UK trade figures narrowed by £0.1bn from £2.2bn in January to £2.1bn in February. The deficit of £9.1bn in trade in goods was partially offset by the trade surplus in trade in services of £7bn. The trade balance reflects the exports minus imports position. The statistical bulletin from the ONS also advises data users to refer to the three monthly figures because of imports of erratic commodities such as ships, aircraft, precious stones and silver skewing the trade statistics and because trade statistics for a month can be misleading.

The impact can be seen in the three months to February which saw exports of goods decrease to £72.7bn (2.5%) due to falls across a range of commodities. Imports fell by 4.7% to £99bn over the same period due to a decrease in semi-manufactures and fuel. The estimated trade in services was £7bn with exports of £17bn and imports of £10bn. The three months to February saw an estimated surplus of £21.4bn in trade in services.

Business Services Leading Growth In Sector

The ONS index of services grew by 3.2% (IOS=106.6) over the year to January with all of the main service sectors showing growth. Business services and finance contributed the most with an increase of 3.5% and 1.4% to total growth in the service sector with administrative and support services contributing 11.3 %, distribution, hotels and restaurants also contributed growth of 1%, government and other services grew 1.7% and 0.5% to total growth and transport, storage and communication grew by 2.5% and 0.3% to total growth.

The month on month estimates show that there was growth of 0.4% in output between December 2013 and January 2014. Quarterly figures show growth of 0.8% between Q4 2013 and Q3 2013.

Output Up By 2.9%

Production output increased by 2.9% over the year to January 2014. Manufacturing, the largest component of production figures, increased by 3.3% and water supply, sewerage and waste management increased 12.6%.

Of the manufacturing components, the main contributors to the 3.3% increase were rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products manufacturing, the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified and the manufacture of transport equipment.

Production output increased by 0.1% over the month between December 2013 and January 2014. All sectors increased except mining and quarrying which decreased by 3.4%. The remaining sectors all of which reported an increase grew by 0.4%.

The main components contributing to the increase over the month were the manufacture of rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products, the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified and other manufacturing and repair.

The second estimate of GDP suggested the economy grew by 0.7%. Three of he four main groupings experienced growth with agriculture experiencing a decline of 0.1%. Services and construction grew by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Services continues to be the main contributor to growth.

No Change In Economic Sentiment

Economic sentiment (ESI) in Europe in February 2014 was largely unchanged at +0.2 in both the euro area and the wider EU. Industry confidence improved slightly (+0.4) and the increase in services confidence (+0.8) was due to a more positive assessment of the past business situation but consumer confidence deteriorated due to expectations regarding savings, unemployment and the economic future. Retail trade confidence improved overall. An improved assessment of order books improved the confidence in the construction sector but in the financial services confidence decreased by 2.5 points.

Employment plans were revised upwards in services but remained unchanged in industry. Selling prices are expected to increase in services and construction but to fall in retail and industry. Consumer price expectations were rounded down.

In the wider EU, services and retail were positive but consumer confidence declined slightly especially in the UK. Employment plans were more negative in industry than in the euro area alone but were unchanged in retail.

Services Index Increases By 3.2%

The Index of Services produced by the ONS increased by 3.2% on the annual comparison in December 2013. All four of the main components increased in the most recent month on the monthly comparison.

Business services and finance made the biggest contribution with an increase of 1.4%. Distribution, hotels and restaurants also made a significant contribution with an increase of 1%.

The index estimates that output increased by 0.2% between November and December of 2013 following an increase of 0.5% between October and November 2013.

Over the quarter Q4 2013 compared with Q3 the index reported an increase of 0.8%. The IOS is estimated to have increased by 1.9% in 2013 compared with 2012.

Steel Helps UK Production Increase 2.5%

Output rose by 2.5% over the year to November 2013 according to the ONS reflecting rises in manufacturing output and output in mining and quarrying and the water, sewerage and waste management sectors. The main contributors to the increase in manufacturing output were the manufacture of transport equipment, other manufacturing and repair and the manufacture of basic metals and metal products. Iron and steel made he largest contribution to the increase with growth of 34.3%, its highest since records began in January 1998.

Trade Deficit Narrows By £0.3bn

The UK deficit on trade in goods and services in November was estimated to have been £3.2bn compared with a £3.5bn deficit in October according to the latest ONS UK Trade statistics bulletin. There was a deficit of £9.4bn on goods which was offset by a surplus of £6.2bn on services.

UK Record Trade Deficit With EU

The latest UK trade figures were recently published by the ONS. The UK deficit on trade in goods and services in September 2013 was estimated to have been £3.3bn the same as it was in August. The figure is made up of a deficit of £9.8bn on goods and a surplus of £6.5bn on services.

Exports of goods to EU countries decreased by £0.3bn in September while imports increased by £0.4bn. Overall trade in goods with the EU has reached an record deficit of £6bn.

First Estimate Of GDP Shows Growth Of 0.8%

GDP growth is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Q3 2013 compared with Q2. Output increased in all four main industrial groups. Agriculture increased by 1.4%, production by 0.5%, construction by 2.5% and services by 0.7%. The yearly comparison shows that growth is 1.5% up on last year.

UK Companies Are Maintaining Profitability

The profitability of UK non-financial corporations in Q2 2013 as measured by net rate of return (NNR) was estimated by 11.4% according to the ONS. It compares well with the last 18 months but is lower than 2011. The revised estimate for Q1 was 11.3%.

The manufacturing sector reported net rate of return of 7.2% in Q2 2013 one of the lowest levels since 2003. Services NRR was estimated to have been 15.1% in Q2 equal to Q1 but higher than the last two and a half years. UK continental shelf companies (oil & gas) NRR, which are not directly comparable with other industrial sectors and can be very volatile, grew by 37.4%. Non-UKCS companies grew by 10.7%.

Putting it into context, real GDP grew by 0.7% in Q2 2013 and the NRR of UK companies was 11.4%, an increase of 0.1%. The operating profits of UK non-financial corporations increased by 1.2% (according to Quarterly National Accounts) suggesting that profits are increasing at a faster rate than capital employed.

GDP Increase Not Recession Fears But Growth

GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2013 compared with Q1 2013. The four major industrial groupings in the economy increased in Q1 2013 compared with Q2 2013. The largest upward contribution to the increase in GDP came from services with an increase of 0.6% adding 0.48% to the total GDP increase. Agriculture increased by 1.1%, production 0.6% and construction 0.9% (ONS).

Trade Deficit Increases To £2.4bn

The UK trade deficit grew to £2.4bn in May from £2.1bn in April 2013 and £2.3bn in March. The deficit on goods was £8.5bn offset by a surplus of £6.1bn in services. Trade volumes have recovered since the lower levels at the beginning of the year. Trade prices have risen. Total exports increased by £0.4bn or 1.5% to £25.6bn and total imports increased by £0.4bn or 1.3% to £34.1bn. The annual comparison shows that there was a total trade deficit of £2.1bn in May 2012.

Fatalities In The Workplace

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) fatalities in the workplace provisional statistics for 2012-13 say that the number of workers fatally injured at work fell in the year 2012-13 to 148. The figure of 148 is 18% lower than the average for the last five years and gives a fatal injury ratio of 0.5 deaths per 100,000 workers, down from the 5-year average of 0.6 per 100,000. The summary also tells us that 113 members of the public were also fatally injured in accidents related to work. The figure excludes 310 related to railways (including suicide and trespass).

The main industry sectors in terms of fatalities breakdown as follows: agriculture 29; mining and quarrying 2; manufacturing 20; gas, electricity and water 12; construction 39 and services 46. When applying a ration of fatal injuries per 100,000 workers the statistics are as follows: agriculture 8.8; manufacturing 0.7; gas electricity and water 8.2; construction 1.9; and services 0.2, and all industries 0.5.

When fatal injuries suffered by members of the public are included the total figure for all industries rises to 571. There were 7 fatalities among members of the public in agriculture, 1 in manufacturing 4 in gas, electricity and water, 3 of which were in waste and recycling, 5 in construction and 406 in services.

Regional comparison of number and rate of fatal injuries of the 148 shows that the North East recorded 2 fatalities in 2012-13 and a 5 year average of 6. The South East reported 22 fatalities and a 5 year average of 16. Scotland also reported a total of 22 and a 5 year average of 22. It should be noted that there are strong regional differences in industry and occupation variables.

European Current Account 21.8bn Euro Surplus

The latest EU balance of payments figures published by Eurostat show that the EU27 recorded a current account surplus of 21.8bn euro in Q1 of 2013. In the first quarter of 2012 there was a deficit of 7.7bn.

The 32.8bn euro deficit on goods in Q1 2012 became a surplus of 0.8bn euro in Q1 2013. The surplus on services fell from 31.2bn euro to 29.8bn euro.

Reduction In UK Trade Deficit

The UK trade deficit in goods and services decreased to £3.1bn in March compared with the £3.4bn deficit in February. The deficit on trade in goods of £9.1bn was partially offset by a trade surplus in services of £5.9bn. The export of services was estimated at £15.6bn and imports £9.7bn. The estimated surplus on trade in services in Q1 2013 was £17.4bn with total exports £46.3bn and total imports £28.9bn.