China And Hong Kong Help UK Trade

The UK trade deficit grew from £1.8bn in August 2014 to £2.8bn in September 2014 according to estimates from the ONS. The deficit is made up of a deficit of £9.8bn on goods and a surplus of £7bn on services.

Over the month the trade in goods deficit increased by £0.9bn as exports increased but imports particularly from countries outside the EU increased even more.

The quarterly comparison shows that between Q2 and Q3 2014 the trade in goods deficit increased also by £0.9bn to £29bn. Exports fell by £0.3bn and imports increased by £0.6bn.

The UKs largest trading partner in terms of the value of goods exported and imported remains Germany but Q3 2014 recorded the largest ever deficit with Germany due to falling exports and rising imports. The UK surplus with the US hit an 8 year low but it was partially offset by better trade figures with China and Hong Kong.

Composite Leading Indicators Suggest Stable Growth In The OECD

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) continue to suggest stable growth momentum in the OECD. CLIs are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.

The US, Canada and the UK CLIs show stable growth momentum and in the UK growth is stabilising at rates above the trend. The CLI for Japan shows an interruption in the growth momentum although it is probably only a temporary effect. The CLIs for the euro area as a whole and for Italy in particular indicate a positive change in momentum. Germany may be losing some of its momentum but it is at a high level.

In the BRICS emerging economies, Brazil's CLI points to below trend growth, China and Russia are growing around the trend and India may be returning to faster growth with a CLI suggesting a positive turning point.

Retail Trade Volumes Up 0.3% Across Europe

March 2014 saw retail trade increase across Europe by 0.3%. In February the increase in trade had been 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU28. The annual comparison shows that in March 2014 compared with March 2013 the increase was 0.9% in the euro area and 1.6% in the EU28.

The 0.3% increase in the volume of retail trade on the monthly comparison in the euro area is due to a rise of 1.3% in the food, drinks and tobacco sector while the volume fell by 0.3% in the non-food sector and 0.1% in automotive fuel. In the EU28 the rise was due t rises of 1% for automotive fuel and 0.7% for food, drinks and tobacco.

The biggest increases were seen in Estonia and Latvia with 2.8%, France 2.3% and Romania with 2.2%. The decreases were in Portugal with a decrease of 1.7%, Austria with 0.9%, Germany, Ireland and Slovenia all with 0.7%.

The increase of 0.9% in volume over the year was due to rises of 1.9% in the non-food sector, 0.3% in automotive fuel and 0.3% in food, drinks and tobacco in the euro sector. The increase of 1.6% in the volume of retail trade in the EU28 was due to rises of 3.3% in the non-food sector and 1.8% for automotive fuel. Food, drinks and tobacco fell by 0.1%.

Romania saw the biggest increase with a rise of 13.4% in volume, Luxembourg was next with 12.1% and Hungary with 8.4%. Malta with -2%, Finland with -1.3%, Slovenia -1.1% and Spain with -0.6% saw the biggest decreases in volume of retail trade.

New Pocketbook Of Agricultural Statistics

There are some interesting statistics in the new Pocketbook on agriculture, forestry and fisheries statistics.

France is the main producer of cereals in the EU28 with 285m tonnes or 24% of the total, Germany produced 16% (45.4m tonnes) and the UK contributed 19.5m tonnes or 7%. France was also the biggest producer of common wheat with 28% of total EU28 production, grain maize (26%) and barley (21%). Germany was the main rye and maslin producer with 43%.

The largest quantity of cow's milk was produced by Germany with 29.7m tonnes or 21% of total EU28 production then France with 24.4m tonnes or 17% and the UK with 13.6m tonnes or 10%. The UK was the biggest producer of drinking milk with 6.9m tonnes or 22% of EU28 production. Germany was the biggest producer of cheese (23%), cream (21%) and butter (23% in the EU28 with France following with 21%, 16% and 20% respectively.

Unemployment Up In Euro Area

Unemployment in the euro area rose to 12.2% in April 2013 a small increase on the 12.1% in March. The EU27 unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11%. The annual comparison shows a marked increase in unemployment in Europe since last year. In the euro area the unemployment rate was 11.2% and the EU27 had an unemployment rate of 10.3%.

The numbers of unemployed people in Europe were estimated to have been 26.588m. The euro area accounted for 19.375m of them. The lowest rates of unemployment were reported in Austria and Germany with 4.9% and 5.4% respectively. The highest rates were reported in Greece and Spain with 27% and 26.8% respectively.

These countries also reported the lowest and the highest rates for youth unemployment. Austria had 8% and Germany 7.5% youth unemployment and Greece had 62.5% and Spain 56.4% youth unemployment.

More Waste Being Recycled

The EU27 generated 503kg of municipal waste per person in 2011 and 486kg of waste per person was treated in one way or another. Municipal waste means the large quantities of waste generated by households, but may also include the waste generated by small businesses and public institutions collected by the municipal authority. Waste is treated in different ways: landfill (into or onto land), incineration ( at incinerations plants), recycling (reprocessing into other products except fuel) and composting (biological treatment of biodegradable matter into another product). In 2011 37% was landfilled, 23% was incinerated, 25% was recycled and 15% was composted. This compares with 2001 figures of 56% landfilled, 17% incinerated, 17% recycled and 10% composted.

The amount of municipal waste generated varies significantly across European countries. The average for the EU27 was 503kg per person. Denmark generated the highest amount of waste with 718kg per person in 2911. Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland generated between 600 and 700kg per peron. Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia generated less than 400kg per person.

Romania was the country with the highest percentage of landfill treatment with 99%. The highest percentage for incineration was in Denmark with 54% of municipal waste being treated in that way. Germany came top for recycling with 45%. Austria with 34% had the highest rate for composting.

The UK sends 49% of its municipal waste to landfill, 12% is incinerated, 25% is recycled and 14% is composted. The EU27 averages are 37%, 23%, 25% and 15% respectively.

G7 Productivity Gap Widest Since 1993

The latest comparison of productivity across the G7 countries shows that output per hour in the UK was 16 points below the average for the rest of the major industrialised economies in 2011. It was also 21 points lower than the rest of the G7 in terms of output per worker. It is the widest productivity gap since 1993. Growth in GDP per hour grew in line with the rest of the G7 and faster than the US and Germany. Output per worker was unchanged between 2010 and 2011.

International Merchandise Trade Slow Again

Most of the major economies experienced a continuation of the slowdown in merchandise trade seen in the second quarter in the third quarter of 2012 according to data from the OECD. Imports and exports fell in Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, S.Africa and the US. Imports also decreased in France and the UK. Moderate export growth occurred in France and the UK. Exports fell in Canada, China and India. Imports grew moderately in Canada and China but there was stronger growth in India.

OECD Growth Of 0.2% In Q3

The OECD's provisional estimates for growth in member's GDP suggest an increase of 0.2% for the third quarter of 2012. The rate is the same for the previous quarter but there was divergent change across countries. GDP growth in the UK accelerated to 1% due to the Olympics. In the US growth increased to 0.5% from 0.3%. Growth in Framnce was also up to 0.2% from 0.1%. Growth slowed down in Germany and Italy saw the fifth consecutive month of contraction. In the G7, the seven major economies, on the annual comparison the US had the highest growth rate with 2.3% and Italy the largest contraction, -2.4%.

Signs Of Weak Growth Prospects In OECD CLI's

The composite leading indicators of the OECD suggest there may be weak growth prospects in major economies. The CLIs for Japan, Germany, France and the Euro Area pont to weak growth but there are signs of stabilisation in other economies such as Canada, China and the US and possibly Italy as well. Weak growth signs also appear in India and Russia.

OECD Inflation Up To 2.2%

Annual inflation in the OECD area increased to 2.2% in September 2012 from 2.1% in August according to data from the OECD. Higher energy prices, at 5.1% increase, were the main cause of the slight increase. Food prices slowed to 2.1% in September after an increase of 2.2% in August.If food and energy atre excluded OECD inflation was 1.6% compared with 1.7% in August. Euro area inflation in September was 2.6%. In the UK it fell from 2.5% in August to 2.2% and in the US it increased to 2% from 1.7% and remained stable in Canada and Italy. Inflation also fell in France and Germany.

OECD Leading Index Down 0.1%

The composite leading indicator index from the OECD shows a decline of 0.1% between July and August 2012 and a comparable fall with December 2011. The group of seven major economies also fell by 0.1% between July and August but the fall between August and December 2011 was 0.2%. The euro area, France, Italy and the US also fell 0.1%. Germany fell 0.2%. The UK index increased by 0.1%.

Decline In Economic Sentiment In Euro Area

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) produced by the Economic and Financial Affairs department of the European Commission remained unchanged in the EU27 but declined by 0.6% in the euro area to 89.9. There was falling confidence in industry, services and among consumers but increasing confidence in retail trade and construction.

Sentiment improved in the UK by 1.9 points, Spain (+1) and Italy (+0.9) but got worse in France and Germany by -1.5 and -1.4 points respectively. Germany is the only country which is above its long-term average.

Consumer confidence declined slightly by 0.3 points in the EU27 and 0.5 points in the euro area. The decline is based on falling confidence and expectations about the future general economic situation and increased fears of unemployment. Consumers' expectations about their own financial situation and savings have improved.

GDP Per Capita Ranged From 45% To 274% In EU In 2011

GDP per capita estimates expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) in the EU in 2011 ranged from 45% in Bulgaria to 274% in Luxembourg, more than two and a half times the EU27 average according to Eurostat. The euro area GDP per capita was 108% of the EU27 average as was the UK. Germany was 120%, France 107% and Italy 101%.

OECD GDP Growth Slows But Stays Positive

Real GDP growth in the OECD countries slowed down to 0.2% in Q4 2011 compared to 0.6% growth in Q3. The major components were all included except for changes in inventories. There was slower growth in private consumption, investment and net exports but they remained positive. Government consumption was the main contributor to the slowdown decreasing growth by 0.1%.

The broad based slowdown in demand differed at national level reflecting amongst other things differences in rates of economic growth. GDP growth was strongest in the US at 0.7% largely due to private consumption. Private consumption was also the main driver in Canada which showed growth on 0.4%. France remained positive at 0.2%. Japan and Germany both reported negative growth of 0.2%. Other countries with negative GDP growth in Q4 2011 included Italy -0.7% and the UK with 0.3%

Inflation In The OECD Continues To Rise In September

Consumer prices in the OECD countries continued to rise in September by 3.3% after a 3.2% increase in August. It is the highest rate since October 2008. The 5.2% rise in inflation in the UK in September was mainly due to the 18.1% rise in energy prices in September after a 12.3% rise in August. It is back to the peak of September 2008, the highest since records began in January 1997. Consumer price inflation also increased in Italy (3%), Germany (2.6%), the US (3.9%) and Canada (3.2%). In France prices remained stable but in Japan prices fell by 0.2% to 0%. In Europe, the HICP increased to 3%.

Falls In UK Productivity Levels

Productivity per worker in the UK fell relative to all G7 countries except Italy and Germany in 2010, but it was above that of Japan and similar to Canada. The productivity gap between the UK and the US is the biggest since 1994. All G7 countries have seen an increase in GDP per worker and GDP per hour between 2009 and 2010. UK productivity was lower than the G7 average on both measures. GDP per worker was lower than in France, Italy and the US (the highest in G7).

All G7 countries experienced productivity growth in GDP per hour worked in 2010. In the UK growth was the result of a combination of a fall in actual hours worked and an increase in GDP. While the UK experienced a fall in hours worked per worker between 2009 and 2010 other countries saw a reduction in total hours as a result of lower employment.

The US saw the largest growth in GDP per worker of the G7 countries. The UK previously a fast growth country saw falls similar to those in Canada, France and Germany due to employment falling more slowly than GDP.

OECD Inflation Continues to Increase

Consumer prices indices for the OECD countries continue to increase. The OECD CPI went up by 2.9% in April 2011 compared with 2.7% in March. Energy prices accounted for much of the increase with a 13.8% rise compared with 12.4% in March.

Inflation accelerated most in the UK with an increase to 4.5% and the US to 3.2%. Germany also experienced an acceleration of inflation to 2.4%. France's inflation rose to 2.1% and Italy's to 2.6%. Canada remained stable at 3.3%. The euro area inflation (HICP) was at 2.8% in May from 2.7% in April.

The latest figures from Eurostat suggest that euro area inflation was back to 2.7% again in May with EU inflation at 3.2%.

OECD CLI Suggest Slow Down In Recovery

The Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) published by the OECD for April 2011 suggest a slight loss of momentum in most major economies with the US the exception. Stability in the pace of expansion was suggested in Germany and the UK but France, Italy and Canada show signs of a slowdown. Signs of a slowdown also appear in China, Brazil, India and Russia.

OECD CLIs Show Signs Of Expansion

The composite leading indicators of the OECD countries for February 2011 signify continued expansion in the economies of most member countries. The OECD area annual growth rate was 1.8% compared with the Euro area 1%. The trend of expansion is continuing in Germany and the United States. The rate of expansion seems to be slower but stable in the UK. France and Canada are possibly regaining momentum but Italy may be losing momentum.

Russia seems to be continuing its current economic expansion phase while China shows signs of more moderate economic activity. India is pointing towards a slowdown but Brazil should remain near its long-term potential. The Major 5 Asian economies grew by 0.2% over the last year and the Major 7 by 2.1%.