Confidence Growing In Service Sector

Confidence is growing in the service sector and firms are more optimistic than three months ago according to the latest services survey by the CBI. It is because business has generally been better and things are expected to continue improve in the coming months. Business are also employing more staff and spending more time on training. The business situation is better than it was three months ago according to consumer service providers. Volumes fell at a similar rate but values fell more slowly due to slower price deflation. Selling prices fell slightly but are expected to rise. Professional and business services firms were much more optimistic than the last quarter. There was an unexpected improvement in both business volumes and values and volumes are expected to continue to grow and growth in values is expected to strengthen. Profitability stabilised when it was expected to fall and is expected to grow in the next quarter.

An Increase In Agricultural Price Indices In September

The index of prices received by producers for the total of all agricultural products for September 2011 was 165.7, up from 159.2 in August.

The index of prices paid by producers for the total of all means of agricultural production for September 2011 was 153.1, up from 153.0 in August. The slight increase in purchase prices being covered by the larger increase in production prices. There was an increase in the price of fuel. Confidence is returning to cereals markets after fears of bad harvest weather subsided and prices retruned to normal after increasing earlier in the year. Potato prices started well this year as bad weather reduced availability. News of adequate harvests reduced fears and prices came down again.

Milk prices have increased steadily over the last 18 months with good demand and supply ensuring a good market. Good market conditions also apply to the beef market. Sheep and lamb prices have been sustained but prime prices are beginning to tail off.

Business Confidence Unchanged In June

The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) remained unchanged after 14 months of improvement. The indicator suggests that the trend will continue though some momentum may be lost. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) was also broadly unchanged at 100.1 in the EU and 98.7 in the euro area. The BCI and the ESI data is from the European Commission Director General of Economic and Financial Affairs.

Shop Price Inflation Down To 1.8%

Shop price inflation fell to 1.8% in May from 2% in April according to the Shop Price Index (SPI) from the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Food inflation rose to 2.2% from 2% but non-food inflation fell to 1.6% from 2% in April.

A BRC spokesman said that the fall in the SPI happened despite big rises in some costs. Clothes and electricals are cheaper than last year but the rises in the price of oil are putting pressure on transport costs. Prices are being held down as customers still lack the confidence to spend. Tinned and packet food were the main causes in the rises in food inflation as falls in commodity prices, for products like coffee and wheat, still in the system are being awaited.

Manufacturing Returning To Growth

The CBI quarterly Industrial Trends survey results were released yesterday. They report that the decline in manufacturing output has slowed in the last three months and the prospects are brighter. Confidence is returning to the sector and growth is expected in the next quarter. The comparative weakness of the pound is also helping British companies to compete in export markets.

The volume of output from manufacturing fell again over the quarter according to a majority of companies responding to the survey though at a much slower rate of decline than in the last quarterly survey in July. A small majority of respondents also expect to see growth in the next quarter. Marginal growth is also expected in the domestic market even though demand has continued to slow. The contraction in demand for exports was less than expected and companies expect export orders to increase over the next three months. More businesses are optimistic about exports for the coming year than they have been since 1995. More and more businesses are also becoming more confident in the general business situation.

Destocking is continuing as stocks of finished goods fell at a record rate for a second time. Levels are more than adequate. Firms are planning to spend more on innovation over the next year. Expenditure on staff and training, plant and machinery is expected to remain unchanged.

Fresh Foods Help Keep Price Inflation Down

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) Shop Price Index (SPI) produced in collaboration with Nielsen reported annual inflation of 0.7% in June. It is down from 1.3% in May. The slowdown has continued since March. Food was the main driver with annual inflation of 5.6% from 6.4% in May. Fresh foods and particularly dairy products and some meats were largely responsible. Consumers will be seeing savings on their supermarket bills. Non-foods were up from 1.3% to 1.9%.

The month-on-month basis reported a prices increase of 0.2% in June compared with 0.5% in May. The increase in unemployment is affecting consumer confidence. Discounts and promotions are being offered at the expense of margins. Shopping conditions such as good weather help shoppers take advantage of promotional offers. The BRC maintain that the SPI is a more reliable indicator of shop price inflation than the RPI produced by the ONS.