No Change In Economic Sentiment

Economic sentiment (ESI) in Europe in February 2014 was largely unchanged at +0.2 in both the euro area and the wider EU. Industry confidence improved slightly (+0.4) and the increase in services confidence (+0.8) was due to a more positive assessment of the past business situation but consumer confidence deteriorated due to expectations regarding savings, unemployment and the economic future. Retail trade confidence improved overall. An improved assessment of order books improved the confidence in the construction sector but in the financial services confidence decreased by 2.5 points.

Employment plans were revised upwards in services but remained unchanged in industry. Selling prices are expected to increase in services and construction but to fall in retail and industry. Consumer price expectations were rounded down.

In the wider EU, services and retail were positive but consumer confidence declined slightly especially in the UK. Employment plans were more negative in industry than in the euro area alone but were unchanged in retail.

e-Commerce Above Estimates But Down On Year

E-commerce accounted for 18% of turnover in 2012 down from 19% in 2011 but above the 2008 estimate of 14%. Business to business electronic data interchange (EDI) sales made up 67% of the total of e-commerce sales and the rest was accounted for by business to household website sales (33%). The website sales accounted for 6%, or £164bn, of business turnover in 2012 compared to 5%, or £134bn, in 2012. Broadband Internet had reached 95% of businesses and 82% had a website.

The largest companies still dominate e-commerce sales with businesses of 1000 or over employees accounting for 51% of all e-commerce sales. Total e-commerce sales amounted to £335bn in 2008, now sales have reached £492bn. Average annual growth between 2008 and 2012 was 10%. Total growth over the period 2008-2012 was 47%.

The highest levels of total e-commerce by industry sector were reported in wholesale and manufacturing with £172bn and £157bn respectively. The accommodation and food services sector reported low sales by comparison with £9.1bn but reported the highest proportional increase of 57% annually.

Website sales have reported steady growth in recent years. In 2008 13% of businesses sold over a website reporting sales valuing £92bn. In 2012 18% of businesses sold over a website with sales of £164bn. The total value of website sales increased to 6% of total business turnover. The largest companies accounted for half of all sales. The smallest businesses accounted for only 0.7% of the total 6% of turnover from website sales.

The wholesale sector reported the highest amount of website sales with £50bn. The retail sector reported the highest proportion of businesses making sales over a website with 34% and construction the lowest with 7%.

EDI sales decreased by £23bn in 2012 to £328bn from £351bn. EDI accounted for 12% of total business turnover in the UK in 2012 (the decrease may be accounted for by things like sampling variability). Only 6% of businesses sold by EDI while three times as many businesses used websites compared to EDI but sales values over EDI were double at £328bn compared to £168bn.

The manufacturing sector made to highest amount of sales in 2012 with £145bn. The wholesale sector followed with £122bn but also saw the biggest decrease in EDI sales value down 14% or £20bn from £142bn in 2011.

Social media or websites and applications that enable users to share content and participate in social networking has enabled businesses to change the way they interact with customers. In 2012, 44% of businesses reported they had used social media such as Facebook and LinkedIn. Nearly a quarter had used a blog or a microblog such as Twitter. Multimedia content sharing websites like YouTube or Flickr were used by 15% of businesses. Half of large businesses have content sharing websites. The ICT sector had the highest rate of use with 53% and transport and storage the lowest with 5%.

In 2012, 68 of businesses provided NIC details online and 89% of businesses completed their VAT returns over the Internet.

Retailers Reporting Strong Growth

The CBI distributive trades survey reports that retailers have seen improvements in sales and increases in staffing numbers. Year on year growth in sales volumes increased for the third consecutive month but retailers considered sales to be below normal for the time of year.

Fall Of 0.2% In GDP

The preliminary estimates of GDP published by the ONS show that GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012. Output fell in the production and construction indistries by 0.4% and 3% respectively but services grew by 0.1% following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter. A closer analysis shows that the decreases in the production industries were driven by mining and quarrying and manufacturing. An increase in retail and food and beverage services contributed to the 0.1% increase in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector and computer programming, consultancy and related services and motion picture, video and television production also made a significant contribution to the increase of 0.4% in transport, storage and communication. Financial services made the biggest contribution to the 0.1% decrease in business services and finance and health and sports activities, amusement and recreation made the biggest contribution to the 0.2% increase in government and other services. Agriculture, forestry and fishing fell by 1.9%.

EU Retail Better In April

The volume of retail trade in the euro area increased by 0.9% in April 2011 compared wiith March. In the EU27 the increase was 1.1%. The retail sales index increased by 1.1% and 1.9% respectivley. The volume of trade in the UK over the previous month was 1.1% and over the year 4.3%.

Over the month, food, drink and tobacco rose by 0.7% in the euro area and 1.6% in the EU27. In the non-food sector the increases were 0.8% and 1.3% respectivly. The highest increases were in Denmark at 4.3% and the largest decreases were in Malta at 2.8%.

Over the year the increases in the food sector were 1.2% in the euro area and 1.8% in the EU27 and in the non-food sector 1.8% and 2.7% respectively. The highest increases were in Luxembourg at 9.4% and the largest decreases were in Malta at 8%.

An Increase In The Number Of UK Businesses

The estimated number of private sector business in the UK at the start of 2010 increased by 48,000 to 4.5m according to statistics from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. They employed an estimated 22.5m people and had a combined annual turnover of £3,200bn. SMEs accounted for 99.9% of all enterprises, 59.1% of private sector employment and 48.6% of turnover. Two thirds, 64.2%, of private sector businesses were sole proprietorships, 27.6% were companies and 8.2% were partnerships.

The largest sector in terms of numbers of enterprises was construction with 899,000 businesses, professional, scientific and technical came next with 602,000. There were 146,000 enterprises in agriculture, forestry and fishing, 498,000 in wholesale, retail trade, repair and 291,000 in human health and social work activities.

The South East had the most private sector enterprises with 732,000, followed by London with 706,000. The East of England came third with 474,000. The North East had the least number of enterprises with 122,000. Next bottom was the East Midlands with 306,000. Scotland had 288,000, Wales 192,000 and N. Ireland 121,000.

Animal Feed Production And Prices

Retail production of animal feed was 5% down in March 2011 compared with last year. Raw material usage in the retail production of animal feed was also down 4.7%. Integrated feed production was up 0.1% compared with March 2010.

The average price of cattle and calf for the October to December 2010 period was £199 per tonne from £180 per tonne July to September 2010, pig feed was £236 per tonne from £213 and sheep feed was £197 per tonne from £183.

Annual Business Survey 2009

Provisional results for the annual business inquiry now called the annual business survey show decreases in all four main industry groups: production, construction, distribution and services in turnover, purchases and gross value added (GVA) at basic prices. Agriculture also reported decreases in turnover, purchases and GVA at basic prices.

Production decreased 8.1% in turnover, 8.9% in purchases and 10.2% in GVA. Within the production group mining and quarrying fell by 24.6% in turnover and 37.5% in GVA. Production did report some increases most notably in electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning with 8.4% in turnover and 32.1% in GVA. Manufacturing reported decreases of 9.1% in turnover, 10.9% in purchases and 11.2% in GVA. The construction industries reported the largest percentage falls with -13.7% in turnover, -15.1% in purchases and -20.3% in GVA.

Distribution reported the largest decreases in money terms with a decrease of £60bn in turnover (-4.9%), £58bn (-5.5%) in purchases and £17bn (-4.6%) in GVA. While the financial differences were the largest the percentage changes were not. Only services had a smaller percentage change. The only increases in the distribution industries was in retail (except motor vehicles and motorcycles) increasing turnover by 0.3% and GVA by 1.8%.

Distribution Drives The Increase In Services

The ONS index of services rose 1.2% in July 2010 compared with July 2009. The main contributor to the change was the distribution sector which increased by 4.7% with wholesale increasing by 6.5% and retail by 3.9%.

Services Output 2.1% Up On Year

The Index of Services, published by the ONS, rose 2.1% over the year from May 2009 to 102.5 in May 2010 (seasonally-adjusted). All five components increased in the most recent month on a year earlier. The biggest rise was in business services and finance which rose 2.5%. It rose 1% over the month.

Distribution output increased by 4.5% notably motor trades which rose by 12.5% and retail which rose by 4.1%. Government and other services increased by 1% within which the greatest contribution was from health and social work which contributed 2.6% in output and 0.9 to the overall 1%.

Retail Sales Up 2.5%

The value of retail sales in June 2010 went up by 2.5% compared with June 2009 according to the ONS Retail Sales Index. The index stood at 116.3 compared with 116.2 in May 2010 an increase of 0.1% and 113.5 in June 2009. The volume rose by 1.3%. The index was 113.1 compared with 111.7 in June 2009 and 112.3 in May 2010 an increase of 0.7%.

In food stores the value of sales was up by 1.7% on a year ago while the volume was 0.2% lower. The value of sales rose by 3.7% in non-food stores along with an increase of 4.4% in the volume of sales. Household goods rose by 4.4% in value and 6.1% in volume, textiles, clothing and footwear increased in sales value by 3.3% and in volume by 4.2%. The non-specialised store category sales increased in value by 9.1% and volume increased by 10.3%. Non-store retailing increased sales values by 14.1% and volume by 14.8%. The figures are seasonally-adjusted.

Non-seasonally adjusted prices were estimated to have risen by 1.3% compared with June 2009. The value of fuel sales was 3.6% lower than last year but the volume was 15.9% lower. The value of Internet retail sales in June was estimated to have been £437m which equates to 7.9% of total retail sales (excluding fuel). The total value of sales in June 2010 was estimated to have been £30.9bn (non-seasonally-adjusted) and the average weekly value was £6.2bn.

Different sized retailers have a mix of experiences in terms of growth of sales value and volume. The biggest retailers with over 100 employees reported an average 3.3% increase in sales between June 2009 and June 2010. The smallest retailers, with 0-9 employees, sales fell by 0.9% over the same period. Those employing 40-69 employees experienced 51.3% growth over the year but businesses with 70-99 employees saw their sales decrease by 45.7%.

High Street Sales Up In June

Retail sales increased 1.2% on a like-for-like basis on June 2009 according to the British Retail Consortium's (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor (RSM) for June 2010 and 3.4% on a total basis.

The World Cup and the hot weather helped food sales growth but clothing and footwear sales growth slowed as many people had done their shopping in May. Non-food non-store sales were 17.3%, higher than this time last year, but lower than the 21.9% in May.

Retail Sales Increase Again

The latest retail sales indicators from the ONS say that the value of retail sales in May 2010 was up by 4.4% on May 2009 and volume of retail sales in May 2010 increased by 2.2% on May 2009.

Looking at the value of retail sales in more detail, predominantly food stores were 1.4% up on last year and predominantly non-food stores 5.4% up on last year, especially non-specialised stores 8.5%. Textile, clothing and footwear increased by 6.6%, household goods by 2.7% and 'other stores' by 4.5%. In non-store retailing the increase was 12.2% and fuel went up 9.2%.

Volumes in greater detail show that food stores were 0.5% lower in volume, non-food stores were up 5.4% within which non-specialised increased 9.4%, textile, clothing and footwear increased 7.1%, household goods 2.7% and 'other stores' 3.6%. Non-store retailing increased 11.8% but fuel volumes were 9.6% lower

Estimated sales prices were 2.3% higher than last year. The value of Internet retail sales in May 2010 was £409m. It equates to 7.9% of total retail sales totalling an estimated £24.8bn. The average weekly value of sales was estimated at £6.2bn.

The retailer group that experienced the most growth based on number of employees was the group with between 40-69 employees which grew by 21.1%. Retailers with 0-9 employees grew on average by 5.4% and retailers with over 100 employees grew by 4.9%. In contrast, the group with 70-99 employees experienced a decrease of 35.1%.

Sales Monitor 3% More Than Last Year

UK retail sales were 3% up on May last year according to the BRC Retail Sales Monitor. Sales were also up 0.8% on a like-for-like basis. Over the quarter food was up 3.3% on the total basis and 1% like-for-like and non-food 3.5% and 1.3% respectively. All categories indicators for the quarter were 1.2% like-for-like and 3.4% in total.

In the non-food sector, the sunny weather helped outdoor, DIY and leisure as well as footwear and clothing. Consumer uncertainty about job and income prospects meant many items struggled even with discounts and promotions. Internet, mail order and telephone sales were 21.9% higher than a year ago after 15.9% in April. Food sales were improving after April.

The Director General of BRC said the World Cup has helped to increase the sales of televisions and that should continue as it gets closer and football merchandise sales should increase. Despite the uncertainty consumer confidence has gone up since last year.

Sales Continue To Grow On The High Street

Growth in High Street sales has continued into the third consecutive month and it is expected to continue according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey for April.

The moving average of sales volumes remained positive and growth is expected again in May. Although there wasn't much change in the volume of orders placed on suppliers it is also expected to grow in May. Stock levels are more than adequate to cover demand.

Wholesalers saw sales volumes grow rapidly and expect the same in May. Industrial materials wholesalers also had strong sales growth except for agricultural machinery and electrical installation materials who reported a difficult April. Durables wholesalers sales stabilised after a difficult March. Motor trades sales fell for the fourth consecutive month and they expect another fall next month. Parts and accessories sales grew for the third month in a row.

Positive Indicators In Services

The index of services from the ONS reported a positive index number for the first time since October 2008. The total service industries indicator increased by 0.1% year-on-year in February 2010 after a fall of 1.2% in January. The monthly indicator also increased by 0.6% on January 2010.

Three of the five components that make up the index reported positive indicators. Distribution increased 3.7% mainly due to the increase retail of 5.4%, transport, storage and communication 0.6% partly due to transport services, and Government and other services 0.1% due to health and social work increasing 2.4% but being partly offset by a fall in recreation of 5.5%. The other two components, hotels and restaurants and business services and finance, both recorded decreases of 0.9% and 1% respectively. The main factor in the decrease in the indicator for hotels and restaurants was pubs and clubs. The business services and finance sector decrease was mainly down to banks with a decrease of 6.8%.

Food Inflation Lowest For Three Years

Shop price inflation slowed to the lowest level for three years. The British Retail Consortium's (BRC) Shop Price Index (SPI) fell to 1.2% in March from 1.7% in February. Food inflation fell to 1.2% from 1.3% and non-food inflation to 1.3% from 1.9%. Food inflation is at its lowest for over three years.

Sales Growth On The High Street Expected To Continue

Retailers have seen growth for the second month running according to the CBI Distributive Trades Survey for March. The trend is expected to continue through Easter. Sales volumes were reported to be higher than the same time last year as expected. The volume of orders also grew for the second month in a row. Stock levels are more than adequate to meet demand. Very strong sales were reported by grocers, durable household goods, clothing, furniture and carpet retailers. Hardware, china and DIY reported falling sales for the second month. The wholesale sector also saw a fall in sales against expectations. There was strong sales growth in the food and drink sector but agricultural machinery sales and builders merchants had a difficult month. Motor traders also had another bad month due to a drop in vehicle sales while parts and accessories sales grew for a second month.

Cold Weather Affected Sales In February

The value of retail sales in the UK on a like-for-like basis across all categories rose 2.2% in February compared with February 2009 when the sales were hit by the snow and cautious consumers. The total base for retail sales rose 4.5% compared with 0.1% last year.

Shoppers seemed to have stocked up with food becuase of the January snowy weather and the food index showed only a 2.4% change and non-food changed by 1.9% like-for-like in February. The overall like-for-like index was a 2.1% change. The total basis showed a 4.1% change in food sales, 4% in non-food and 4.1% over all categories.

The internet, mail order and phone sales index in February was 15.5% up on last year compared with 14.6% in January. The weather was cold and wet and that helped to increase non-food non-store sales.

Food Inflation Hits A New Low

Great news for shoopers from the British Retail Consortium's Shop Price Index tells us that inflation has fallen to 1.7% from 2.3% in January and food prices have hit a new low. Food inflation has plummeted from 2.9% to 1.3% the lowest for three years. Non-food inflation was unchanged at 1.9%. As reported on previous occasions the effects of VAT and shopper restraint may still be having an effect but the Director General of the BRC said that food prices should remain stable.