GDP Up 0.9% In Volume Terms

GDP in volume terms was said to increased by 0.9% between Q1 and Q2 2014 according to the latest Quarterly National Accounts figures from the ONS. It is an upward revision of 0.1% on the second estimate of GDP in August 2014. Annual GDP to August in volume terms is said to have increased by 1.7%.

The household saving ratio, which estimates the amount of money households have available to save and is a percentage of total disposable income was estimated to be 6.7%. Real household disposable income increased by 2.2% between Q1 and Q2 2014. Gross household disposable income is the estimate of the total amount of money from income that households have available from wages, self-employment, social benefits and net income (savings and bonds). Adjustments to gross disposable income gives 'real' household disposable income by removing the effects of inflation.

GDP in current prices is estimated to have increased by 1.9% between Q1 2014 and Q2 2014.

GDP Up 0.8% For Second Quarter

The increase in GDP for the second quarter remained at 0.8% unrevised from the preliminary estimate of July and is the second consecutive quarterly increase of 0.8% according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

Agricultural output decreased by 0.2% and construction remained flat but output in two of the four main industrial groupings increased in Q2 compared with Q1. Production increased by 0.3% and services by 1%.

On the annual comparison GDP for the second quarter of this year was 3.2% higher than Q2 2013. The figure is revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 3.1%.

Modest Growth In OECD GDP

Private consumption was the main contributor to the modest growth of 0.2% in real GDP in the OECD countries in Q1 of 2014 compared with 0.5% in the previous quarter. Government consumption and investment also added slightly to GDP growth but net exports (-0.1%) and destocking (-0.2%) contributed negatively. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.1% points to real GDP growth.

The OECD G7 countries contributions in percentage points: Japan contributed real GDP growth of 1.6%, Germany and the UK contributed 0.8%, Canada 0.3%, France contributed flat economic growth, Italy made a negative contribution, -0.1% and the US contributed -0.7%.

Total Farm Incomes Up 13%

Defra released the first estimates of total income from farming (TIFF) recently and it is reported to have risen by £708m or 13% in real terms between 2012 and 2013 to £5,464m. In terms of annual work units (AWU) of entrepreneurial labour the increase was 15% in real terms to £28,426 in 2013. The difference is due to a decline in the numbers of farmers and other unpaid workers.

Key contributors to the increase were milk by £505m, potatoes by £210m, and barley by £199m. The increases were offset by a decrease in value of oilseeds of £245m and an increase in the cost of animal feed of £740m.

Agriculture's contribution to GDP measures as gross value added at basic price increased by 7% or £604m to £9,222m. Intermediate consumption increased by £892m to £16,492m mainly due to an increase in the price of animal feed an additional increase in the value of seed. There was a reduction in the number of employees but a small increase in pay of £23m to compensate. The total compensation of employees in 2013 was £2,379m.

Compared to 1994 total income from farming per AWU of entrepreneurial labour has increased by 10% compared to a 15% fall in total income from farming.

GDP Unrevised At 0.7% Growth

GDP in terms of volume increased by 0.7% between Q3 2013 and Q4 2013 according to estimates from the ONS. The figure is therefore unrevised from the second estimate published in February.

In 2013 compared with 2012 GDP is estimated to have grown by 1.7%, down 0.1% on the earlier estimate. The estimates also show that between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013 GDP grew in volume by 2.7%.

GDP in current prices increased by 1.6% between Q3 and Q4 2013, revised downward by 0.3% from the earlier estimate of 1.9%.

The estimates for the household savings ratio were 5.1% in 2013 compared with 7.9% in 2012. The household savings ratio is the amount of money people have to save as a percentage of their disposable income.

R & D Spend Down 2%

Gross domestic expenditure on research and development (R&D) fell by 2% to £27m in 2012 compared with 2011. When adjusting this for inflation R&D expenditure fell by 3%. Since 1985 R&D expenditure has increased by 56% from £17.3bn in 1985 peaking at £27.9bn in 2011.

The business sector contributed 63% of all UK R&D expenditure in 2012. At current prices expenditure decreased by 2% to £17.1% in 2012 compared with 2011. Total expenditure on R&D in the UK in terms of GDP was 1.72%, down from 1.77% in 2011. When UK figures are compared internationally UK R&D is below the EU28 provisional estimate of 2.06% of GDP.

Output Up By 2.9%

Production output increased by 2.9% over the year to January 2014. Manufacturing, the largest component of production figures, increased by 3.3% and water supply, sewerage and waste management increased 12.6%.

Of the manufacturing components, the main contributors to the 3.3% increase were rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products manufacturing, the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified and the manufacture of transport equipment.

Production output increased by 0.1% over the month between December 2013 and January 2014. All sectors increased except mining and quarrying which decreased by 3.4%. The remaining sectors all of which reported an increase grew by 0.4%.

The main components contributing to the increase over the month were the manufacture of rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products, the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified and other manufacturing and repair.

The second estimate of GDP suggested the economy grew by 0.7%. Three of he four main groupings experienced growth with agriculture experiencing a decline of 0.1%. Services and construction grew by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Services continues to be the main contributor to growth.

Government Borrowing £0.2bn Lower Than Last Year

The latest figures from the ONS on public sector finance suggest that in October 2013, public sector net borrowing excluding the effects of financial intervention (PSNB ex) was £8.1bn. General Government borrowing totalled £8.2bn of which central government accounted for £7.7bn and local government £0.5bn. Non-financial public corporations reported -£0.1bn of borrowing. Public sector net debt (PSND) was £1207.2 or 75.4% of annual GDP. The public sector current budget was -£5.7bn and public sector net investment (PSNI) was £2.3bn.

NIESR Says GDP Is Up But Below Pre-Recession Level

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates of monthly GDP suggests that output in the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the three months ending in October after 0.8% growth in the three months to September 2013. The estimates suggest further that the current level of GDP is 5.6% above the trough of the 2008-9 recession but is still 2.3% below the levels before the recession in January 2008.

First Estimate Of GDP Shows Growth Of 0.8%

GDP growth is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Q3 2013 compared with Q2. Output increased in all four main industrial groups. Agriculture increased by 1.4%, production by 0.5%, construction by 2.5% and services by 0.7%. The yearly comparison shows that growth is 1.5% up on last year.

GDP Revised Upward To 0.7%

GDP increased by 0.7% in volume terms between Q1 and Q2 2013 according to the ONS. The latest figure is a revision upwards of 0.1% on the previously published estimate due to small revisions in the main industrial groupings. The annual comparison shows an increase of 1.5%.

At current prices GDP increased by 0.4% between Q1 and Q2. All expenditure components increased giving a 0.7% and compensation of employees increased by 2.4% in Q2, the highest since Q3 2000. The increase partly reflects increases in bonuses in April.

GDP Increase Not Recession Fears But Growth

GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2013 compared with Q1 2013. The four major industrial groupings in the economy increased in Q1 2013 compared with Q2 2013. The largest upward contribution to the increase in GDP came from services with an increase of 0.6% adding 0.48% to the total GDP increase. Agriculture increased by 1.1%, production 0.6% and construction 0.9% (ONS).

GDP Growth 0.6%

The monthly estimates of GDP calculated by the NIESR suggest that GDP output grew by 0.6% in the three months to June following three months of output growth at 0.6% to May. These figures also suggest that there was economic growth of 0.6% per quarter in Q2 2013 from 0.3% during Q1 2013.

Agricultural output has remained stable at 98.1 since March though there has been growth quarter-on-quarter by month, construction has grown slightly month-on-month since March to 91.4, private services has also growth in the same way to 105.3 and public services continues to grow as it has done since December to 103.7.

GDP Up And No Double Dip Recession After All

The earlier estimate of GDP from the ONS that raised fears of a double dip recession in 2011-12 seems to have been revised and a double dip recession has been avoided according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

The earlier estimate of a fall in GDP growth between Q4 2011 and Q1 2012 of 0.1% has been revised to 'flat' and the worries about two consecutive quarters of negative growth have now gone.

In volume terms UK GDP increased by 0.3% between Q4 2012 and Q1 2013. The figure remains unrevised from the earlier estimation. In terms of current prices GDP seems to have increased by 0.9% for that period.

The households savings ration was at its lowest since Q1 2009 with an estimate of 4.2% in Q1 2013. Household real disposable income increased by 1.4% between 2011 and 2012, the highest since 2009.

Estimates Say GDP Down In Europe

GDP in the euro area fell by 0.2% and the EU27 by 0.1% in Q1 2013 compared with the Q4 of 2012 according to a statistical release from Eurostat on the second estimates for GDP in member states. Compared to the same quarter in the previous year GDP fell by 1.1% in the euro area and 0.7% in the EU27.

Household Final Consumption Expenditure increased by 0.1% in both zones but still contributed negatively to GDP growth. Capital formation fell in both zones as did both exports and imports.

Mining Increases Production In March

Production output increased by 0.2% between Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 according to the ONS. Manufacturing fell by 0.3% over the same period.

The increase in overall production was mainly due to an increase of 4% from mining and quarrying. The increase from the mining and quarrying sector follows the reduced output of Q4 caused by maintenance work in the North Sea. The index covers 15.6% of GDP, services covers 77% and construction 6.8% with the other 0.6% being accounted for by agriculture.

The monthly comparison shows that between February and March 2013 production rose by 0.7%. Manufacturing output increased by 1.1% and the coldest March since 1962 helped to increase demand for the output of the electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning sub-sector by 2.4%.

GDP Up By 0.3%

GDP increased by 0.3% in the most recent quarter (Q1 2013) compared with the last quarter. It has been flat for over 18 months. The biggest upward contribution by far to the increase was from services growing by 0.6% and adding 0.47% to the increase of 0.3% in GDP.

Estimated Fall In EU GDP

The flash estimates of GDP for Europe for Q4 2012 suggest that GDP fell by 0.6% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU27 quarter on quarter (Eurostat). The annual comparison suggests seasonally adjusted GDP fell by 0.9% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU27 comaped with Q4 2011. GDP fell by 0.5% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27 over the whole of the year 2012.

G7 Productivity Gap Widest Since 1993

The latest comparison of productivity across the G7 countries shows that output per hour in the UK was 16 points below the average for the rest of the major industrialised economies in 2011. It was also 21 points lower than the rest of the G7 in terms of output per worker. It is the widest productivity gap since 1993. Growth in GDP per hour grew in line with the rest of the G7 and faster than the US and Germany. Output per worker was unchanged between 2010 and 2011.

Estimates Say GDP Down

GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 comapred with the previous quarter according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

The production industries output was said to have decreased by 1.8% over the quarter, construction increased its output by 0.3% but in services there was no change. GDP as a whole remained the same as compared with Q4 2011. Transport, storage and communications increased by 0.7% with the largest contributions coming from motion picture, video and TV and programming and broadcasting. Business services and finance also increased by 0.4% with the largest contribution coming from employment activities. The agriculture sector fell by 0.6% on the same period in the previous year. While agriculture did not contribute to the change in GDP quarter on quarter, on the year on year analysis agriculture decreased by 3%.

The growth rate of the level of GDP was affected by two factors worthy of note. The level of GDP in the third quarter was helped by the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and there are some signs of a 'fall back' from these events. The other factor that should be borne in mind was the longer than expected maintenance of the largest North Sea oil field which reduced the oil and gas extraction component for the quarter.