GDP Up 0.8% For Second Quarter

The increase in GDP for the second quarter remained at 0.8% unrevised from the preliminary estimate of July and is the second consecutive quarterly increase of 0.8% according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

Agricultural output decreased by 0.2% and construction remained flat but output in two of the four main industrial groupings increased in Q2 compared with Q1. Production increased by 0.3% and services by 1%.

On the annual comparison GDP for the second quarter of this year was 3.2% higher than Q2 2013. The figure is revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 3.1%.

Output Up By 2.9%

Production output increased by 2.9% over the year to January 2014. Manufacturing, the largest component of production figures, increased by 3.3% and water supply, sewerage and waste management increased 12.6%.

Of the manufacturing components, the main contributors to the 3.3% increase were rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products manufacturing, the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified and the manufacture of transport equipment.

Production output increased by 0.1% over the month between December 2013 and January 2014. All sectors increased except mining and quarrying which decreased by 3.4%. The remaining sectors all of which reported an increase grew by 0.4%.

The main components contributing to the increase over the month were the manufacture of rubber, plastic products and other non-metallic mineral products, the manufacture of machinery and equipment not elsewhere classified and other manufacturing and repair.

The second estimate of GDP suggested the economy grew by 0.7%. Three of he four main groupings experienced growth with agriculture experiencing a decline of 0.1%. Services and construction grew by 0.8% and 0.2% respectively. Services continues to be the main contributor to growth.

No Change In Economic Sentiment

Economic sentiment (ESI) in Europe in February 2014 was largely unchanged at +0.2 in both the euro area and the wider EU. Industry confidence improved slightly (+0.4) and the increase in services confidence (+0.8) was due to a more positive assessment of the past business situation but consumer confidence deteriorated due to expectations regarding savings, unemployment and the economic future. Retail trade confidence improved overall. An improved assessment of order books improved the confidence in the construction sector but in the financial services confidence decreased by 2.5 points.

Employment plans were revised upwards in services but remained unchanged in industry. Selling prices are expected to increase in services and construction but to fall in retail and industry. Consumer price expectations were rounded down.

In the wider EU, services and retail were positive but consumer confidence declined slightly especially in the UK. Employment plans were more negative in industry than in the euro area alone but were unchanged in retail.

e-Commerce Above Estimates But Down On Year

E-commerce accounted for 18% of turnover in 2012 down from 19% in 2011 but above the 2008 estimate of 14%. Business to business electronic data interchange (EDI) sales made up 67% of the total of e-commerce sales and the rest was accounted for by business to household website sales (33%). The website sales accounted for 6%, or £164bn, of business turnover in 2012 compared to 5%, or £134bn, in 2012. Broadband Internet had reached 95% of businesses and 82% had a website.

The largest companies still dominate e-commerce sales with businesses of 1000 or over employees accounting for 51% of all e-commerce sales. Total e-commerce sales amounted to £335bn in 2008, now sales have reached £492bn. Average annual growth between 2008 and 2012 was 10%. Total growth over the period 2008-2012 was 47%.

The highest levels of total e-commerce by industry sector were reported in wholesale and manufacturing with £172bn and £157bn respectively. The accommodation and food services sector reported low sales by comparison with £9.1bn but reported the highest proportional increase of 57% annually.

Website sales have reported steady growth in recent years. In 2008 13% of businesses sold over a website reporting sales valuing £92bn. In 2012 18% of businesses sold over a website with sales of £164bn. The total value of website sales increased to 6% of total business turnover. The largest companies accounted for half of all sales. The smallest businesses accounted for only 0.7% of the total 6% of turnover from website sales.

The wholesale sector reported the highest amount of website sales with £50bn. The retail sector reported the highest proportion of businesses making sales over a website with 34% and construction the lowest with 7%.

EDI sales decreased by £23bn in 2012 to £328bn from £351bn. EDI accounted for 12% of total business turnover in the UK in 2012 (the decrease may be accounted for by things like sampling variability). Only 6% of businesses sold by EDI while three times as many businesses used websites compared to EDI but sales values over EDI were double at £328bn compared to £168bn.

The manufacturing sector made to highest amount of sales in 2012 with £145bn. The wholesale sector followed with £122bn but also saw the biggest decrease in EDI sales value down 14% or £20bn from £142bn in 2011.

Social media or websites and applications that enable users to share content and participate in social networking has enabled businesses to change the way they interact with customers. In 2012, 44% of businesses reported they had used social media such as Facebook and LinkedIn. Nearly a quarter had used a blog or a microblog such as Twitter. Multimedia content sharing websites like YouTube or Flickr were used by 15% of businesses. Half of large businesses have content sharing websites. The ICT sector had the highest rate of use with 53% and transport and storage the lowest with 5%.

In 2012, 68 of businesses provided NIC details online and 89% of businesses completed their VAT returns over the Internet.

First Estimate Of GDP Shows Growth Of 0.8%

GDP growth is estimated to have increased by 0.8% in Q3 2013 compared with Q2. Output increased in all four main industrial groups. Agriculture increased by 1.4%, production by 0.5%, construction by 2.5% and services by 0.7%. The yearly comparison shows that growth is 1.5% up on last year.

GDP Increase Not Recession Fears But Growth

GDP increased by 0.6% in the second quarter of 2013 compared with Q1 2013. The four major industrial groupings in the economy increased in Q1 2013 compared with Q2 2013. The largest upward contribution to the increase in GDP came from services with an increase of 0.6% adding 0.48% to the total GDP increase. Agriculture increased by 1.1%, production 0.6% and construction 0.9% (ONS).

GDP Growth 0.6%

The monthly estimates of GDP calculated by the NIESR suggest that GDP output grew by 0.6% in the three months to June following three months of output growth at 0.6% to May. These figures also suggest that there was economic growth of 0.6% per quarter in Q2 2013 from 0.3% during Q1 2013.

Agricultural output has remained stable at 98.1 since March though there has been growth quarter-on-quarter by month, construction has grown slightly month-on-month since March to 91.4, private services has also growth in the same way to 105.3 and public services continues to grow as it has done since December to 103.7.

Fatalities In The Workplace

The Health and Safety Executive (HSE) fatalities in the workplace provisional statistics for 2012-13 say that the number of workers fatally injured at work fell in the year 2012-13 to 148. The figure of 148 is 18% lower than the average for the last five years and gives a fatal injury ratio of 0.5 deaths per 100,000 workers, down from the 5-year average of 0.6 per 100,000. The summary also tells us that 113 members of the public were also fatally injured in accidents related to work. The figure excludes 310 related to railways (including suicide and trespass).

The main industry sectors in terms of fatalities breakdown as follows: agriculture 29; mining and quarrying 2; manufacturing 20; gas, electricity and water 12; construction 39 and services 46. When applying a ration of fatal injuries per 100,000 workers the statistics are as follows: agriculture 8.8; manufacturing 0.7; gas electricity and water 8.2; construction 1.9; and services 0.2, and all industries 0.5.

When fatal injuries suffered by members of the public are included the total figure for all industries rises to 571. There were 7 fatalities among members of the public in agriculture, 1 in manufacturing 4 in gas, electricity and water, 3 of which were in waste and recycling, 5 in construction and 406 in services.

Regional comparison of number and rate of fatal injuries of the 148 shows that the North East recorded 2 fatalities in 2012-13 and a 5 year average of 6. The South East reported 22 fatalities and a 5 year average of 16. Scotland also reported a total of 22 and a 5 year average of 22. It should be noted that there are strong regional differences in industry and occupation variables.

Estimates Say GDP Down

GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 comapred with the previous quarter according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

The production industries output was said to have decreased by 1.8% over the quarter, construction increased its output by 0.3% but in services there was no change. GDP as a whole remained the same as compared with Q4 2011. Transport, storage and communications increased by 0.7% with the largest contributions coming from motion picture, video and TV and programming and broadcasting. Business services and finance also increased by 0.4% with the largest contribution coming from employment activities. The agriculture sector fell by 0.6% on the same period in the previous year. While agriculture did not contribute to the change in GDP quarter on quarter, on the year on year analysis agriculture decreased by 3%.

The growth rate of the level of GDP was affected by two factors worthy of note. The level of GDP in the third quarter was helped by the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and there are some signs of a 'fall back' from these events. The other factor that should be borne in mind was the longer than expected maintenance of the largest North Sea oil field which reduced the oil and gas extraction component for the quarter.

Business And Consumers In Europe Still Confident

The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area increased slightly in December by .05 to -1.12 due to positive assessments of production expectations and order books.

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) improved by 1.3 points to 87 from 85.7 in the euro area in December and remained more or less unchanged in the EU27 at 88.4 from 88.1. Economic sentiment in the euro area improved among consumers and in all sectors except retail trade. In the EU27 economic sentiment increased in industry and construction but these were partly offset by decreases in services and retail trade. Consumer confidence in thne EU remained unchanged.

Estimated 1% Growth In GDP In Q3

GDP was estimated to have increased by 1% in the third quarter of the year compared with the previous quarter according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS. Production increased by 1.1%, construction decreased by 2.5% and services increased by 1.3%. Manufacturing contributed the most to the increase in production and agriculture increased by 2.2%. In the services sector distribution, hotels and restaurants grew by 1.6% as did government and other services, business services and finance contributed 1% growth and transport, storage and communiaction 0.8%.

GDP Down 0.7% On The Quarter

GDP in the UK fell by 0.7% in Q2 2012 compared with Q1 2012 according to preliminary estimates from the ONS. All of the four main sectors of the economy decreased over the period. The production industries decreased by 1.3%, the construction sector by 5.2% and the services sector by 0.1% in Q2 compared with Q1 2012. Agriculture contributed a decrease of 2.6%.

GDP Decline Estimates Unchanged At 0.3%

The previously estimated fall in GDP in volume terms of 0.3% remains unchanged in the third estimate of GDP, the Quarterly National Accounts (QNA) from the ONS. Production output fell by 0.5%, with manufacturing falling 0.3%, services output increased by 0.2%, while construction fell 4.9%.

Output GDP 0.1% Growth

The NIESR estimates that GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to May 2012 after a 0.1% fall in April. The UK economy has also ceased to contract but remains weak. NIESR also say that negative output will get worse while the economy is stagnant but expect economic recovery to begin in 2013.

Industry decreased from 90.1 to 89.8 between April and May 2012, agriculture and construction remained stable at 78.7 and 91.2 respectively. Private services grew from 99 to 99.4, and public services from 105.7 to 105.8.

Fall Of 0.2% In GDP

The preliminary estimates of GDP published by the ONS show that GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012. Output fell in the production and construction indistries by 0.4% and 3% respectively but services grew by 0.1% following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter. A closer analysis shows that the decreases in the production industries were driven by mining and quarrying and manufacturing. An increase in retail and food and beverage services contributed to the 0.1% increase in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector and computer programming, consultancy and related services and motion picture, video and television production also made a significant contribution to the increase of 0.4% in transport, storage and communication. Financial services made the biggest contribution to the 0.1% decrease in business services and finance and health and sports activities, amusement and recreation made the biggest contribution to the 0.2% increase in government and other services. Agriculture, forestry and fishing fell by 1.9%.

GDP Down By 0.2%

The preliminary estimates for GDP suggest that GDP decreased by 0.2% in Q4 2011. Production output decreased by 1.2% after a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter. Services were unchanged whereas they increased 0.7% in the previous quarter. The construction sector decreased by 0.5%.

The biggest single contributor to the decline in the production industries came from manufacturing followed by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning.

Business Survey Estimates Fall In Number Of Jobs

The Business Register and Employment Survey estimates that for September 2010 there were 26.8m employees, down 134,000 on 2009. Tha largest fall among the countries of the UK was in Scotland at 73,000.

The region with the most employees was London with 4.1m (15.3% of UK employees) next came the South East with 3.7m (13.8%). London also had the highest proportion of full-time employees at 74.1%. Other regions had less than 70%. The regions with the lowest number of employees were Northern Ireland with 705,000 (2.6%) and the North East with 999,000 (3.7%) with over a third part-time.

In the UK as a whole, there were 18.1m full-time and 8.7m part-time employees. The health sector continued to have the largest number of employees with 3.6m. The industry with the lowest number of employees was agriculture, forestry and fishing with 214,000 (0.8%). Construction employment decreased the most down 118,000 employees. Mining, quarrying and utilities had the largest proportion of full-time workers at 93.3%. The retail sector had the largest proportion of part-time workers at 57.2%. Business administration and support services grew by 62,000.

OIE Measure Of GDP Up 0.2% In Q2

The chained volume measure of GDP increased by 0.2% in Q2 2011 according to the latest statistical bulleting from the ONS. Output in the construction and services sectors increased by 0.5%. Output in the production industries decreased by 1.6%. Output in Q2 2011 increased by 0.7% compared with Q2 2010. Quarter on quarter percentage growth in output in agriculture fell by 1.3% and total production by 1.6%.

Year on year growth to 2010 in construction increased by 7.1%, the production industries by 2.1% and services by 1.1%. Agriculture fell by 3.5%.

GDP Growth Of 0.5%

The preliminary estimate for GDP published by the ONS show that the economy grew by 0.5% in the 1st quarter of the year. It is also estimated that GDP has returned to the level of the 3rd quarter of 2010 after the abnormal weather conditions took 0.5% from GDP in the 4th quarter.

Agriculture grew by 0.6% over the quarter and 1% over the year. Construction output decreased by 4.7% on the previous quarter but grew by 6% on the year while production grew by 0.4% and services grew by 0.9% on the quarter and 0.3% and 0.8% respectively over the year. Compared with GDP in Q1 2010 GDP in 2011 grew by 1.8%.

GDP Down More Than Expected

GDP in terms of volume decreased by 0.6% in Q4 2010 which is a downward revision of the decrease of 0.5% published in January. Production industries increased by 0.7% but services decreased by 0.7% and construction decreased by 2.5%. The GDP deflator is 2.8% above the sdame quarter of 2009. Household expenditure was down 0.1% in real terms and gross fixed capital formation down by 2.5%. The very bad weather is partly to blame for the change in GDP.