Estimates Say GDP Down

GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 comapred with the previous quarter according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

The production industries output was said to have decreased by 1.8% over the quarter, construction increased its output by 0.3% but in services there was no change. GDP as a whole remained the same as compared with Q4 2011. Transport, storage and communications increased by 0.7% with the largest contributions coming from motion picture, video and TV and programming and broadcasting. Business services and finance also increased by 0.4% with the largest contribution coming from employment activities. The agriculture sector fell by 0.6% on the same period in the previous year. While agriculture did not contribute to the change in GDP quarter on quarter, on the year on year analysis agriculture decreased by 3%.

The growth rate of the level of GDP was affected by two factors worthy of note. The level of GDP in the third quarter was helped by the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and there are some signs of a 'fall back' from these events. The other factor that should be borne in mind was the longer than expected maintenance of the largest North Sea oil field which reduced the oil and gas extraction component for the quarter.

Fall Of 0.2% In GDP

The preliminary estimates of GDP published by the ONS show that GDP fell by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2012. Output fell in the production and construction indistries by 0.4% and 3% respectively but services grew by 0.1% following a decrease of 0.1% in the previous quarter. A closer analysis shows that the decreases in the production industries were driven by mining and quarrying and manufacturing. An increase in retail and food and beverage services contributed to the 0.1% increase in the distribution, hotels and restaurants sector and computer programming, consultancy and related services and motion picture, video and television production also made a significant contribution to the increase of 0.4% in transport, storage and communication. Financial services made the biggest contribution to the 0.1% decrease in business services and finance and health and sports activities, amusement and recreation made the biggest contribution to the 0.2% increase in government and other services. Agriculture, forestry and fishing fell by 1.9%.