Consumer inflation fell in both areas of the EU in November according to a statistical bulletin from Eurostat. Inflation in the euro area fell by 0.1% from 0.4% in October to 0.3% in November 2014. In the EU28 similarly the rate of inflation fell from 0.5% in October to 0.4% in November.
There were negative annual rates in Bulgaria, Greece, Spain and Poland with Bulgaria showing a rate of -1.9%. The highest rates were in Romania and Austria with annual rates of 1.5% and Finland on 1.1%.
CPI grew from 1.2% in the year to September to 1.3% in the year to October according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS. So goods that cost £100 last October cost £101.3 this October.
The main contributors to the rise in inflation were smaller falls in the costs for motor fuels and air fares and price rises for computer games.
The three main contributors to annual inflation over the last five years have been housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and restaurants and hotels. Together these three sectors have accounted for nearly half of inflation each month. Food and fuel prices which normally contribute to rises in annual inflation have been helping to reduce it by 0.3%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 1.2% (128.3 - 128.4, 2005=100) over the year to September 2014, down from 1.5% in August according to the ONS. Falls in sea fares and air fares and recreational goods were mainly responsible for the fall.
Housing and household services accounted for a third of the rate of inflation and if falling food and fuel prices were excluded the rate would be a third higher.
The CPI published by the ONS grew by 1.5% in the year to August 2014, a fall of 0.1% from 1.6% in July. The largest downward contribution came from a fall in the prices of motor fuel and food and non-alcoholic drinks. These pressures to lower prices were offset by upward pressure from clothing, transport services and alcohol.
Consumer inflation grew by 1.6% over the year to July 2014, a fall of 0.3% from 1.9% in June. The largest factor in the fall in the rate was the fall in the price of clothing. Downward effects also came from alcohol, financial services, and food product groups. The largest upward effect came from transport.
The IMF recently published a staff report showing that the UK economy is growing quickly and the growth is expected to continue. The recent growth has been stronger than expected and the predictions are that growth will continue to be above expectations at about 3% rather than the 1.5% predicted earlier. Growth at the start of the recovery was based on consumer spending and an increase in consumer confidence along with easer credit conditions. Growth is now also due to more business investment as the confidence has spread from consumers to businesses.
The recovery is expected to continue but there are always risks. Domestic risks include uncertainty about future productivity growth and worries about financial risks coming from the housing market. Externally, the unwinding of unconventional monetary policies in the US and weak growth in both emerging and advanced economies and geopolitical tensions are seen as the areas of most risk.
The UK housing market has seen house prices grow very quickly in London and the rest of the UK as well. Rapid house price inflation can lead to serious risks for buyers who borrow more than they can afford leaving them vulnerable to shocks to interest rates or incomes.The authorities have already taken some steps to contain the financial risks. The first line of defence was the 'macroprudential' measures including loan affordability and limits to the share of new mortgages that feature high ratios of loans to incomes. These measures may take some time before they begin to have an impact. The effects will have to be monitored and settings adjusted accordingly if required. Inadequate supply is the main driver of the increase in house prices. Unnecessary constraints on planning should be lifted to ensure the ax system encourages the most appropriate use of land and a consensus reached to relieve the supply problem.
Monetary policy should remain accommodative for now and should support the recovery at least until signs that inflation is rising appear or that costs are increasing above productivity growth.
The euro area annual inflation rate in June 2014 was stable compared with May at 0.5% according to Eurostat. The European Union annual inflation ratio increased to 0.7% from 0.6% in May. Monthly inflation in the euro area and the wider European Union was 0.1% in June. The UK recorded the highest inflation rate in June with 1.9%.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) which measures consumer inflation grew by 1.5% over the year to May 2014, down from 1.8% in April. Transport services costs made the largest contribution. Downward effects came from food and non-alcoholic drinks and clothing sectors. These downward trends were offset by increases in motor fuels and recreation and culture.
Euro area inflation (MUICP) is expected to fall to 0.5% in May 2014 from 0.7% in April according to the latest flash estimate from Eurostat. The services sector is expected to have the highest rate in May with 1.1%, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco with 0.1%, non-energy industrial goods and energy bot with 0.0%.
The consumer prices index (CPI) grew by 0.2% to 1.8% over the year to April 2014 according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS. The CPI was 1.6% in March. The increase was mainly due to increases in airfares, sea fares and motor fuels probably as a result of the Easter holidays. These travelling costs were the main contributor to the overall increase in the CPI.
CPI inflation increased by 1.6% in the year to March 2014. It was 1.7% in February. Between February and March 2014 the CPI rose by 0.2% compared with 0.3% between the same two months of last year. Downward pressure mainly came from transport, especially motor fuels but also from clothing and furniture and household goods.
Transport prices didn't change much between February and March 2014 compared with the 0.6% increase a year earlier. Petrol prices were unchanged compared with a 2.2% rise last year. Diesel fell by 0.4p/litre compared with a rise of 1.9p/litre last year. Air transport fares grew by less than they did a year ago.
As usual, prices for clothing and footwear increased between February and March but by less than last year. Downward pressure mainly came from women's outer garments. Furniture and household goods prices went up by 0.3% over the month compared to a rise of 0.8% last year.
The main upward contribution came from restaurants and hotels where prices increased by 0.5% compared with 0.2% last year mainly from price increases for overnight stays in hotels. Prices for alcohol, particularly spirits, and tobacco rose this year but fell last year.
CPIH which includes owner occupier housing costs (OOH) grew by 1.5% in the year to March 2014. RPIJ grew by 1.8% from 2% in February. RPI annual inflation was 2.5%.
Growth in CPI inflation fell to 1.9% in the year to January 2014 from 2% in December 2013 according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.
Decreases in prices for recreational goods and services, furniture and household goods and alcoholic drinks and tobacco were the main contributors to the fall. These price movements were offset by an upward movement in prices for miscellaneous goods and services.
The change in the inflation figures means that a basket of goods and services that cost £100.00 in January 2013 would cost £101.90 in January 2014.
CPIH grew by 1.8% in the year to January 2014 down from growth of 1.9% in December 2013. CPIH is an inflation measure that includes owner occupier housing costs (OOH) but not things like utility bills, minor repairs and maintenance.
The CPI grew by 2% in the year to December, down from 2.1% in November, due mainly to contributions from the food and non-alcoholic beverages sector and recreational goods and services. Inflationary increases in motor fuels partly offset the downward pressures. Price increases for gas and electricity over the year were slightly more than last year resulting in an upward contribution to inflation. The Bank of England had set a target of 2% for inflation for stability. It is the first time that the CPI has been at 2% since November 2009 (1.9%).
The three main contributors to inflation in recent years have been food and non-alcoholic beverages, housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels and transport (incl. other fuels). These sectors combined have accounted for more than half of the inflation rate for each month.
Defra released the second estimate of the total income from farming (TIFF) statistics for 2012 recently and the figures suggest that farm incomes fell by 13% (£721m) between 2011 and 2012 to £4,810m (real terms after allowing for inflation). RPI inflation increased by 3.2% during 2012.
Two main factors were given for the fall in total income and they were the weather and the resulting increased cost values; and a fall in the value of direct payments to farmers due to adverse changes in the Pound/Euro exchange rate. Poor weather affected the volume and quality of the harvest and increased the value of inputs used.
The income of farmers per annual work unit (AWU) was estimated to have fallen by 14% in real terms to £24,570 in 2012.
Gross output at basic prices at November 2013 was £24,089m and total intermediate consumption was £15,464m. There was a small decrease in Gross Value Added (GVA) of £51m to £8,625m because the increase in the value of intermediate consumption (goods and services used in production) was greater that the increase in the value of output.
Longer term trends show that total income from farming has remained at a higher level than the late 1990s and early 2000s but below a peak in the mid-1990s. Entrepreneurial labour income has performed better than TIFF mainly due to a decrease in the number of farmers and other unpaid workers.
The recent ONS statistical release on consumer inflation suggests that the CPI grew by 2.2% in the year to October 2013 down from 2.7% in September, but still above the Government's target of 2%. The main contributions to the fall in the rate came from transport and education. The CPIH and RPIJ likewise moved in a similar direction with rates of 2% from 2.5% and 1.9% from 2.5% respectively.
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) fell from growth of 2.8% in July to 2.7% in August according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS. Transport and the clothing sectors made the biggest contribution to the fall. Furniture and household equipment and maintenance offset the downward progression with upward contributions.
The CPIH index was 124.3 and the one month rate of change was 0.4% and the yearly rate change was 2.5%. CPIH is a new measure of consumer price inflation that includes owners occupiers' housing costs (OOH).
European annual inflation increased in both zones in June 2013 compared to May going up 1.6% in the euro area and 1.7% in the EU27. Monthly inflation increased by 0.1% in both zones in June. Romania had the highest annual rate with 4.5% and Greece the lowest with -0.3%. The lowest 12 month average rate was in Greece with 0.2% and Romania the highest 4.5%.
Inflation, using the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), increased by 2.9% in the year to June 2013 compared to 2.7% in May, an increase of 0.2%. The Government's target is still 2%. The main upward drivers were motor fuels and clothing and footwear. Air transport provided the biggest downward pressure.
Consumer inflation grew by 2.7% over the year to May 2013 according to a statistical bulletin on the CPI from the ONS. Transport with an increase of 0.4% compared with a fall of 0.8% last year and clothing particularly womens' outerwear with an increase of 1.2% were the main contributors to the increase. Food contributed the biggest downward pressure on the index.
The rate has returned to the levels reached during October 2012 and March 2013 after the rate slowed to 2.4% in April. The monthly rate between April and May increased to 0.2%. April and May 2012 saw a decrease of 0.1%. The government's target is still 2%.
The CPI grew by 2.4% on the annual comparison for April 2013 down from 2.8% in March but still above the 2% target set by the Government. The annual rate has however been relatively stable over the last six months. The largest downward contribution came from transport costs, motor fuel and air fares. Food and non-alcoholic beverages provided the only real upward pressure.
