NIESR Says GDP Is Up But Below Pre-Recession Level

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimates of monthly GDP suggests that output in the UK economy grew by 0.7% in the three months ending in October after 0.8% growth in the three months to September 2013. The estimates suggest further that the current level of GDP is 5.6% above the trough of the 2008-9 recession but is still 2.3% below the levels before the recession in January 2008.

GDP Growth 0.6%

The monthly estimates of GDP calculated by the NIESR suggest that GDP output grew by 0.6% in the three months to June following three months of output growth at 0.6% to May. These figures also suggest that there was economic growth of 0.6% per quarter in Q2 2013 from 0.3% during Q1 2013.

Agricultural output has remained stable at 98.1 since March though there has been growth quarter-on-quarter by month, construction has grown slightly month-on-month since March to 91.4, private services has also growth in the same way to 105.3 and public services continues to grow as it has done since December to 103.7.

Output GDP 0.1% Growth

The NIESR estimates that GDP grew by 0.1% in the three months to May 2012 after a 0.1% fall in April. The UK economy has also ceased to contract but remains weak. NIESR also say that negative output will get worse while the economy is stagnant but expect economic recovery to begin in 2013.

Industry decreased from 90.1 to 89.8 between April and May 2012, agriculture and construction remained stable at 78.7 and 91.2 respectively. Private services grew from 99 to 99.4, and public services from 105.7 to 105.8.

NIESR Estimate Growth Rate Of 0.3%

The latest NIESR monthly estimates of GDP released on 12 May suggest the underlying quarterly growth rate of GDP was 0.3% in April 2011. The growth estimate for March was 0.5%It does not take into account the Royal Wedding and the activites associated with it. The index for output for industry was estimated to have increased from 89.9 to 90.3. The indices for output by sector also suggest that agriculture remained unchanged at 91.0, private services decreased from 102.8 to 102.5 but public services increased from 103.6 to 104.1.

Depression Expected To Continue For Some Time

The latest National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) estimate of GDP suggests that output fell by 0.1% in the three months to January 2011 following the 0.5% decline in the three months to December 2010. Month on month estimates suggest growth of 0.6% due to recovery from the severe weather conditions at the end of the year. The depression, to use the term the NIESR prefers to recession, is expected to continue for some time. The sector contributing most to the decline was construction with a fall of 12.2% following from a fall of 12.6% in the quarter ending last month over the previous quarter. Industry increased by 3.7%, agriculture by 1.3% and services by 0.3%. Agricultural output remained the same at 89.7 as did contruction at 95.7. Services increased output from 100.8 to 102.1.