Estimates Say GDP Down

GDP was estimated to have fallen by 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2012 comapred with the previous quarter according to a statistical bulletin from the ONS.

The production industries output was said to have decreased by 1.8% over the quarter, construction increased its output by 0.3% but in services there was no change. GDP as a whole remained the same as compared with Q4 2011. Transport, storage and communications increased by 0.7% with the largest contributions coming from motion picture, video and TV and programming and broadcasting. Business services and finance also increased by 0.4% with the largest contribution coming from employment activities. The agriculture sector fell by 0.6% on the same period in the previous year. While agriculture did not contribute to the change in GDP quarter on quarter, on the year on year analysis agriculture decreased by 3%.

The growth rate of the level of GDP was affected by two factors worthy of note. The level of GDP in the third quarter was helped by the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games and there are some signs of a 'fall back' from these events. The other factor that should be borne in mind was the longer than expected maintenance of the largest North Sea oil field which reduced the oil and gas extraction component for the quarter.

Manufacturing Down 2.1% Production By 2.4%

The index of production published by the ONS shows that production was down by 2.4% in November 2012 compared with November 2011. Manufacturing was down by 2.1%.

The monthly analysis shows that production actually rose by 0.3% during the month October to November 2012. Large increases in production in mining and quarrying (8.7%) were offset by falls in manufacturing (0.3%) and energy supply (4.1%).

The annual analysis for November 2012 and November 2011 also shows that mining and quarrying fell by 13% within which oil and gas extraction decreased by 17.8% contributing 13.4% to the sector fall. Manufacturing fell 2.1% over the year with food manufacturing, beverages and tobacco contributing a fall of 4.6% and chemicals and chemical products 6.8%. Energy supply increased by 4.4% and water supply and waste management increased by 2.4%.

Fall In UK Production In November

The annual index of production published by the ONS fell by 3.1% in November 2011. Manufacturing fell by 0.6%. The monthly index of production fell 0.6% between October and November, manufacturing falling by 0.2%.

The fall in the index was also mainly due to falls in mining and quarrying (14.2%) and energy (8.6%) as well as the fall in manufacturing. Oil and gas was the main contributor in the big decrease within mining and quarrying with a 16.7% decrease which contributed 14% of the 14.2% fall. The biggest contributor to the fall within manufacturing was in the basic pharmaceuticals and preparations industries with a 12.7% fall.

Production Down In February

The index of production fell by 0.1% in February 2010. The index of manufacturing increased by 1.4%, the mining and quarrying index fell by 7.6% and the energy supply industries index 2.6% according to the latest statistics from the ONS.

The production index increased in 8 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors and fell in 5 sub-sectors. The transport equipment sub-sector increased the most with an increase of 16.9% over the year within which the manufacture of motor vehicles increased 51.6% and the manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft went up 12%. Food, drink and tobacco increased by 2.8% within which meat and meat products increased by 16.3% and the processing and preservation of fish, fruit and vegetables by 16.5%. The largest contributor to the year on year increase in the manufacturing index of 1.4% was transport equipment with 1.8%. The food, drink and tobacco industries increased by 0.4%.

The mining and quarrying index fell by 7.6% in February 2010 compared with February 2009. Oil and gas extraction decreased by 8.9% and coal by 16.9%. Over the year there was an 8.1% decrease in oil and gas extraction that contributed to the 7.6% year on year decrease.

Electricity supply output decreased by 7.5% contributing to the overall 2.6% fall in output in electricity, gas and water supply. Consumer durables and capital goods reported increases of 0.6% and 6.2% respectively in February.

Ups And Downs Of Output

The Index of Production fell by 3.6% in December 2009 compared with December 2008. The index for the whole of 2009 fell by 10.2% compared with 2008. Within the production industries the Index of Manufacturing for December 2009 fell by 1.9% year-on-year. The Index of Manufacturing for the whole of 2009 fell by 10.5% compared with 2008. The indices are seasonally adjusted. Month-on-month both the IoP and the IoM reported an increase for the third month in a row, of 0.5% and 0.9% respectively.

The Index of Production is produced by the Office for National Statistics and measures the volume of production of the manufacturing, mining and quarrying and energy supply industries and covers 23.1% of the UK economy as it was in the base year 2000. The Index of Manufacturing covers the 13 sub-sectors of manufacturing and the aggregate forms the manufacturing output time series.

In December output decreased in 9 of the 13 manufacturing sub-sectors and rose in 4 of them. The machinery and equipment industries reported the largest decreases and fell by 13.6% with the manufacturing of machinery for the production of mechanical power the largest contributor with a decrease of 22.6%. The paper, printing and publishing industries fell by 4.2% with the publishing of newspapers making the largest contribution with a fall of 8.1%. In the mining and quarrying sector, the oil and gas extraction sub-sector contributed a decrease of 9.9% to the overall sector fall of 12.1% in December 2009 compared with December 2008. Other mining and quarrying decreased by 35.3%. The energy, gas and water supply industries index fell by 6.6%.

In the main industrial groupings, consumer durables reported an increase of 0.1%. The other main groups reported falls. Consumer non-durables decreased by 1.3%, capital items by 0.8% and intermediate goods by 6.5%.

The Index of Production can be used on its own as a short term indicator as the Index covered 78.6% of the total IoP in the base year. It is usually the first indicator of economic activity and an important component of GDP and National Accounts.