Modest Growth In OECD GDP

Private consumption was the main contributor to the modest growth of 0.2% in real GDP in the OECD countries in Q1 of 2014 compared with 0.5% in the previous quarter. Government consumption and investment also added slightly to GDP growth but net exports (-0.1%) and destocking (-0.2%) contributed negatively. Gross fixed capital formation added 0.1% points to real GDP growth.

The OECD G7 countries contributions in percentage points: Japan contributed real GDP growth of 1.6%, Germany and the UK contributed 0.8%, Canada 0.3%, France contributed flat economic growth, Italy made a negative contribution, -0.1% and the US contributed -0.7%.

Second Quarter Business Investment 20.1%

Business investment remained almost the same during the second quarter of 2012 according to data from Eurostat. The gross investment rate of non-financial corporations in Q2 was 20.1% in the EU27 compared with 19.9% in Q1 2012. In the euro area the investment rate was 20.3% in Q2 2012 compared with 20.2% in Q1. Investment increased at 0.8%, a greater rate than value added which increased at 0.4%. Stocks fell for the third quarter in a row. The gross profit share of non-financial corporations in the EU27 was 37.7% compared with 37.9% in Q1. Inthe euro area the rate remained stable at 38.1% because value added increased at 0.4% the same rate as pay.

Global FDI Rises But Financial Turmoil Slows Growth

Inflows of global foreign direct investment (FDI) rose by 2% in the first half of 2011 compared with the second half of 2010 according to the latest Global Investment Trends Monitor released by UNCTAD. The increase maintains the 5% moderate recovery of 2010.

The effects of the financial crisis however are precipitating a slowing down of growth in FDI according to preliminary estimates of cross-border mergers and acquisitions and greenfield investment. The outlook is predicted to remain optimistic with FDI flows expected to be close to pre-crisis levels over the next twelve months. The emphasis on crisis management is making policy makers more cautious diverting attention away from the need for more private investment to generate growth and jobs.

In the first half of 2011 more than half of global FDI was directed towards developing and transition economies as transnational corporations are still directing their investment to emerging markets. Developed economies experienced a 4% decline in FDI in the first half of 2011.

GDP Up 0.2% In Europe

EU GDP increased by 0.2% during the first quarter of 2010 according to a news release from Eurostat. GDP in both the euro area and the EU27 rose by the same amount in the quarter according to these second estimates.

These figures compare with the 0.1% and 0.2% growth in GDP in the euro area and the EU27 rspectively in the last quarter of 2009. In comparison with the first quarter of 2009 GDP rose by 0.6% in the euro area and by 0.5% in the EU27 after falling by 2.1% and 2.3% respectively in the previous quarter.

The Member States which data are available show that Ireland recorded the highest GDP growth with 2.7%, then Sweden with 1.4% and Portugal with 1.1% growth on the previous quarter. Comparing the same quarter of the previous year, Slovakia recorded the highest GDP growth with 4.5%. GDP in the US grew by 0.7% and Japan by 1.2% in the first quarter 2010. When compared with the same quarter last year the US GDP has grown by 2.4% and Japan's GDP by 4.2%.

Among the various components of GDP household final consumption expenditure decreased by 0.1% in the euro area and the EU27. Investments fell by 1.2% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27. Exports increased by 2.1% in the euro area and by 2% in the EU27 and imports rose by 3.8% and 3.4% respectively.

Current Account Deficit Cut By £1.6bn

The seasonally adjusted current account deficit for Q4 2009 was £1.7bn equivalent to -0.5% GDP, compared with Q3 revised £5.9bn (-1.7%). The deficit on trade in goods and services was -£8.6bn or -2.5% of GDP, and -2.2% in previous quarter. The surplus on income is 2.9% of GDP compared with 1.5% in Q3.

In Q4 there was a deficit of £8.2bn with EU compared with £3.9bn Q3. The decrease in deficit was mainly due to higher surpluses on income and trade in services with a lower deficit on current transfers partly offset by an increase in deficit on trade in goods. The current account with non-EU countries shows a surplus of £6.5bn compared with £2.1bn in the previous quarter. The change is due to a surplus on income increase of £5bn to £10.3bn, the surplus on trade in services increased by £0.3bn to £12.4bn and the deficit on current transfers decreased by £0.2bn to £3.3bn due to a fall in debits from UK payments to EU institutions, though these statistics can be erratic. The annual deficit on current transfers was £14.6bn in 2009 an increase of £0.6bn. The deficit on trade in goods increased by £1.2bn to £21bn.

The capital account recorded a surplus of £1bn in Q4, up £0.1bn on Q3. The surplus on the capital account rose from £3.2bn in 2008 to £3.6bn in 2009. The financial account showed a net inflow of £6.1bn in Q4 compared with a net outflow of £1.4bn in Q3. There was a net disinvestment abroad of £15.3bn and a net disinvestment in the UK of £9.6bn after £16.7bn in Q3 2009. Direct investment abroad fell to £2.8bn from £4.9bn and direct investment in the UK increased by £15.1bn to £21.1bn due mainly to higher investment in equity capital. Portfolio investment abroad amounted to a net investment of £22.9bn in Q4 after £53.6bn in Q3. Total portfolio investment in the UK amounted to a net investment of £14.5bn in Q4 2009 following a net investment of £32.2bn in Q3. Financial derivatives had net settlements of £5.3bn. The capital balance was £973bn.

In 2009 current account in deficit by £18.4bn compared with £22bn in 2008. The deficit amounts to -1.3% of GDP compared with -1.5% in 2008. The deficit of trade in goods and services for 2009 is -2.3% GDP compared with -2.6% in 2008. In 2009 the UK recorded a deficit of £19.5bn with the EU, compared with £5.6bn in 2008 and there was a surplus of £1.1bn with non-EU countries after a deficit of £16.4bn in 2008.

Direct investment abroad in 2009 amounted to £11.9bn compared to £87.6bn in 2008. Direct investment in the UK in 2009 amounted to £29.3bn compared with £49.8bn in 2008. Portfolio investment abroad in 2009 was £154.4bn following a net disinvestment of £123.5bn in 2008. Investment in the UK increased to £188.3bn in 2009 from £185.8bn in 2008. Financial derivatives in 2009 reported net settlements of £14.5bn compared with £35.5bn in 2008.

Non-seasonally adjusted figures for Q4 2009 show a current balance of -£1.8bn, a capital balance of £972bn, net financial transactions of £6.15bn and net errors and omissions of -£5.32bn to balance the three accounts.

Better Performance Than Expected On The High Street

Retail sales outperformed expectations for January according to the CBI distributive trades survey for February. The survey also revealed that although inflation has increased job losses have slowed down. Investment intentions have also improved.

The majority of respondents said their volumes were up in February with a marked improvement on January's survey results and beat their expectations. Orders improved in line with sales volumes. Retailers also expect further growth in sales and orders next month. Stock adequacy remains low.

The busines situation is expected to be fairly stable over the next three months. The job situation seems to be easing with the balance of businesses cutting back on staff expected to be the same in the next quarter. Annual capital expenditure in the next year is expected to remain about the same as in 2009.

Prices rose steeply in February but they probably reflect the changes in VAT coming in at the beginning of 2010. Clothing and grocers had a good month. Durables, furniture and carpets also did well. Among those that didn't do so well were hardware, china and DIY. Wholesalers did quite well but motor trades sale volumes fell and are expecting a further fall over the next quarter. The next quarter is expected to get worse, by a slight majority, and employment is expected to remain stable.

A Narrowing In The Balance Of Payments

The ONS bulletin on the balance of payments showed a net current account deficit of £8.5bn from £8.8bn in the previous quarter. The income surplus increased by £3.4bn to £3.5bn, the deficit on trade in goods fell by £1.5bn to £20.8bn and the deficit on trade on current transfers increased by £1bn to £3.8bn. These were partly offset by the surplus on trade in services which fell £3.7bn to £12.6bn. The current account balance showed a £25.1bn deficit, or -1.7% of GDP in 2008 compared to -2.5% now. The deficit on trade in goods narrowed from £22.3bn to £20.8bn by £0.2bn in oil, fuels other than oil by £0.2bn and finished manufactured goods by £1bn. The surplus on trade in services was £12.6bn. It reflects a decrease in financial and insurance services. Direct investment income was up £3.7bn to £9.8bn, but portfolio investment showed a deficit of £1.4bn. The capital account was almost unchanged with a surplus of £0.8bn in Q1 2009. Net direct investment abroad was £32.4bn and in the UK £34.2bn. Net portfolio investment abroad was £38.3bn and in the UK £122.2bn, the highest on record. Debt securities accounted for £96.9bn in the first quarter.

Bankers Still In Decline As Financials Generally Better

The financial services sector expect business to get better over the next few months for the first time in two years after falls lasting nearly two years. Optimism has risen for the whole business position for the first time in two years. The CBI Financial Services Survey suggests that despite business continuing to fall it is much slower than previously. It is hoped that the general trend will continue to improve though doubts remain over a uniform recovery across all sectors.

Banks increased their spreads to record proportions but remain in decline after giving support to profitability. Business volumes remain well below normal but are set to increase over the next few months. Building societies recorded decreases in income values and spreads leading to lower profitability. Employment is falling. Business volumes have risen in finance houses but not profitability. There have been further sharp falls in employment but less than the last quarter and it expected to continue.

Both general and life insurance volumes have fallen over the last three months. There is optimism in both sectors as volumes are expected to rise. Insurance brokers and securities traders have both seen increases in profitability but securities traders remain cautious. Insurance brokers expect their increases to continue into the next quarter and employment falls were slowest for over a year. Investment managers have seen little change in the quarter despite predictions of falls and employment actually rose. Anticipated falls in volumes and profitability and expected fall in employment mean the outlook for the next few months is not much different.

Sales Reflect Retailers Expectations

Retailers' year-on-year sales fell again in May according to the latest CBI Distributive Trades Survey results published today. There had been a brief pause in the decline in April but at least the monthly results reflect retailers' expectations for the month and confidence is the least negative for a year.

Employment conditions remained difficult in May and staff reductions continued to mount. Prices rose during the month and similar rates of price inflation are expected in the August quarterly DTS survey. A small majority of firms expect the general situation facing retailers to get still worse.

Wholesale and motor traders' sales fell faster in the year to May than in the year to April. Average selling prices in both sectors also increased. In the motors sector prices increased at the fastest rate since August 1990. Investment plans in the wholesale sector are lower than at any time since February 1991.

Decreases In Distribution And Production Investment

Business investment statistics are estimated to show a decrease of 5.5% compared with the previous quarter and 6.8% with this time last year according to the Office for National Statistics. The decreases were estimated to have been in distributions services and production. Capital expenditure was also reduced in the real estate and renting, communications and hotels anf restaurants categories. The business investment figure for the first quarter of 2009 is estimated to have been £33,042 million. It was £34,952 in Q4 2008 and it has fallen from £35,771 in Q2 2008. Services account for £24,605 a fall for the 5th successive quarter from £27,149 in Q4 2007.

Small Business Downward Trend Expected To Slow

The CBI's latest SME Trends Survey shows that output has gone down at the fastest pace of decline for more than 20 years. The factor most likely to limit output will be sales and orders. The report also shows a fall of 64% in total new orders, the steepest fall since CBI records began, with 13% reporting an increase. The volume of output reported shows a 57% decline. Employment figures were no better with 50% of respondents reporting record increase in job losses, only 6% taking on new staff.

The number of firms working below capacity has continued to rise for over a year with 74% now running below capacity and companies are also still running down stocks. Export orders are weak. Credit and financial worries are still a problem and may limit exports. Average domestic prices continued to decline and costs continued to rise as imports are becoming more expensive.

Investment intentions are low and uncertainty about demand is likely to be a factor limiting plans to invest. However, general business sentiment is up as the decline in orders, output and employment is expected to slow down over the next three months.