Business Confidence In Europe In November

The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the euro area from the European Commission went up again in November to 0.96 from 0.91 in October and is at its highest since December 2007. The increase is mainly due to better export order books and optimistic production expectations.

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) for November also increased in both the euro area and the EU27. The main contributor to the increase was sentiment in services which increased by 2.1 to 10.2 in the euro area and 3 to 7.8 in the EU27. Most reported increases in demand and business situation over the last quarter. The ESI in the euro area was at 105.3 and in the EU27 at 105.2.

Trends Suggest Things Will Get Better

New orders increased over the last three months along with export deliveries according to the CBI Industrial Trends survey. Unit costs have increased generally. There was also an increase in the volume of output. Currently 64% of firms are working below capacity but the volume of new orders is expected to improve over the next three months. Export deliversies are also expected to increase. Production is expected to increase likewise but firms expect employment to fall and unit costs increases are expected.

World Trade Report Calls For Natural Resource Trade Co-operation

The World Trade Report from the WTO says natural resources trade is creating many challenges for importing and exporting countries and co-operation by governments is required if they are to be addressed adequately.

The focus of the report is natural resources such as fuels, forestry, mining and fisheries and it examines the trade characteristics of natural resource markets, policy choices and international co-operation for proper management with particular reference to WTO.

Key elements of the report include the distinctive features of natural resource markets, gains from resources trade, externalities, technology effects on sustainability, high volatility, trade policy and trade regulation in natural resources.

The natural resources market total world trade value in 2008 was $3.7 trillion, equivalent to 24% of world merchandise trade. Fuels accounted for 57% in 1998 and 77% in 2008, fish and forestry each accounted for 3% and mining 18%. The top 15 exporters accounted for 52% of world resources trade in 2008 and top 15 importers 71% of traded resources.

UK Trade Deficit Cut By £0.2bn.

The seasonally adjusted trade deficit in goods and services was cut by £0.2bn from £3.1bn in October to £2.9bn in November. The deficit on trade in goods was £6.8bn compared with £7bn and the surplus on services was unchanged at £3.9bn. The volume of exports excluding oil and erratics was 0.2% up but the volume of imports was down 0.9% in November. Export prices fell 0.4% and import prices fell by 0.6% on October.

In terms of value, total exports were unchanged at £20.2bn though total imports fell by £0.2bn to £27bn. Exports of cars fell by £26m while imports of cars increased by £96m, but exports of consumer goods other than cars increased by £131m and imports of consumer goods other than cars fell by £227m. Exports of chemicals increased by £96m and imports fell by £138m on November compared with October 2009.

In the three months ended November 2009 the trade deficit in goods increased by £1.6bn to £20.7bn compared with a deficit of £19.2bn in the previous three months to August. Total exports rose to £59.8bn from £55.7bn and total imports rose to £80.6bn. Exports of chemicals increased by £713m and imports by £1,485m. Intermediate goods exports increased by £612m and imports by £974m. Exports of cars increased by £609m and imports by £1,086m.

In terms of volume, in November 2009 compared with October 2009, exports increased by 0.2% and imports decreased by 0.9% compared with October. Food, drink and tobacco exports increased by 2.7% and imports fell by 0.9%, basic materials exports fell by 8.8% and imports by 6%. Semi-manufactured goods increased by 0.9% and imports fell by 1.9% of which chemicals exports went up by 3.3% and imports fell by 4.1%. There was no change in the volume of finished manufactured goods overall but within the classification the volume of exports of consumer goods went up by 9.6% and imports fell by 4.5%, intermediate goods went up by 1.1% and imports by 2.4%.

In the three months ending in November, the volume of exports of goods rose by 5.5% and the volume of imports rose by 6.9% compared with the previous three months to August. The volume of exports of basic materials increased by 10% and imports by 9.2%. Finished manufactured goods volumes totalled a 5.8% increase in exports and 7.1% increase in imports of which exports of cars increased by 16.2% and imports by 25.5%, intermediate goods export volumes increased by 5.7% and imports by 7.6% and capital goods export volumes increased by 6.6% and imports by 5.1%.

Export prices fell by 0.4% and import prices by 0.6% in November compared with October leading to an increase in the terms of trade. Export prices, excluding the oil price effect, fell by 0.8% and import prices by 1%. In the three months to November export prices rose by 2.7% and import prices by 2.3% on the previous quarter likewise leading to an increase in the terms of trade. Export prices, excluding the oil price effect, rose by 2.2% and import prices by 1.8%.

Trade in services remained unchanged in November with a surplus of £3.9bn. Exports rose by £0.2bn and imports by £0.2bn. Total exports were unchanged at £38.8bn although imports rose slightly by £0.1bn to £27.2bn.

Small Business Downward Trend Expected To Slow

The CBI's latest SME Trends Survey shows that output has gone down at the fastest pace of decline for more than 20 years. The factor most likely to limit output will be sales and orders. The report also shows a fall of 64% in total new orders, the steepest fall since CBI records began, with 13% reporting an increase. The volume of output reported shows a 57% decline. Employment figures were no better with 50% of respondents reporting record increase in job losses, only 6% taking on new staff.

The number of firms working below capacity has continued to rise for over a year with 74% now running below capacity and companies are also still running down stocks. Export orders are weak. Credit and financial worries are still a problem and may limit exports. Average domestic prices continued to decline and costs continued to rise as imports are becoming more expensive.

Investment intentions are low and uncertainty about demand is likely to be a factor limiting plans to invest. However, general business sentiment is up as the decline in orders, output and employment is expected to slow down over the next three months.