The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) of the European Commission Director General of Economic and Financial Affairs decreased by 0.15 points to -0.94. The decline was mainly driven by managers' negative assessments of production expectations, past production, overall order books and export order books. Their assessments of stocks of finished products remained unchanged.

Retail Sales Increase In March

The value of high street retail sales increased in March by 5.7% compared with the same period last year. The volumes of sales also increased by 3.3%. The growth in volumes was driven mainly by non-retailing and predominantly fuel sales and other stores. Internet sales values increased by 15.2% on last March. Internet sales now account for 8.5% of all retail sales excluding fuel. Looking at the figures on a monthly basis sales volumes increased by 1.8% on February and sales values increased by 1.8%. The monthly increases were driven by sales of predominantly automotive fuel probably due to the threat of a fuel strike. The figures may also have been affected by stores running out of stocks and having to close until restocked.

Manufacturing Output Expected To Grow

Production is expected to grow in the next three months manufacturers said in the latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey. There is a general improvement in the trend of demand for UK manufactured goods and growth expectations have accompanied the need to replenish stocks. Price pressure intensified again and many firms expect to raise prices.

Demand For Manufactured Goods Slightly Weaker

The latest Industrial Trends report from the CBI says that overall demand for UK manufactured goods weakened slightly in June. Order books are still close to their long-term average. Export orders are however also weaker compared with last month but almost normal. Output is still expected to be increased during the next three months. Prices are expected to rise but more slowly than the last three months. Consumer goods are not exopected to rise and no change is expected in capital goods. Stocks are more than adequate to meet demand for the third month in a row, but below the survey's long-run average.

Better Performance Than Expected On The High Street

Retail sales outperformed expectations for January according to the CBI distributive trades survey for February. The survey also revealed that although inflation has increased job losses have slowed down. Investment intentions have also improved.

The majority of respondents said their volumes were up in February with a marked improvement on January's survey results and beat their expectations. Orders improved in line with sales volumes. Retailers also expect further growth in sales and orders next month. Stock adequacy remains low.

The busines situation is expected to be fairly stable over the next three months. The job situation seems to be easing with the balance of businesses cutting back on staff expected to be the same in the next quarter. Annual capital expenditure in the next year is expected to remain about the same as in 2009.

Prices rose steeply in February but they probably reflect the changes in VAT coming in at the beginning of 2010. Clothing and grocers had a good month. Durables, furniture and carpets also did well. Among those that didn't do so well were hardware, china and DIY. Wholesalers did quite well but motor trades sale volumes fell and are expecting a further fall over the next quarter. The next quarter is expected to get worse, by a slight majority, and employment is expected to remain stable.

Retail Beginning To Stabilise

The latest CBI distributive trades’ monthly survey, for September, suggests that retail conditions are beginning to stabilise. Sales are basically unchanged on the year to September and expected to remain so in October. A slight majority of retailer respondents to the survey reported sales volumes had risen over the year.

The results are better than expected following months of falling sales. Volumes of orders fell slightly but the three month moving average fall is slowing down. Retailers are keeping stocks low but are more than adequate to meet demand.

The sectors contributing to the overall figures include grocers, footwear and leather goods reporting good year-on-year results. All other sectors are falling, but the pace is slowing for clothing and furniture and carpets. Wholesale is ‘flat’ but are expected to fall next month. Food and drink, clothing, footwear and textiles reported the strongest growth. The hardest hit were industrial materials, builders’ merchants and electrical installation materials. Motor traders sale volumes were more or less unchanged in due partly to the scrappage scheme. They had been expected to grow in the year to September and are expected to fall next month.

Retailers Less Pessimistic About Future

The CBI Distributive Trades Survey shows high street sales falling for the fourth month in a row in the year to August. Running down stocks has left many businesses with a level that is just about adequate but job cuts could be heavier than in May. Most retailers reported a fall in retail sales and a further fall is predicted for September. Sales for the time of year are also reported to be weak. Retailers continue to cut their orders with their suppliers at an even faster rate than in previous months. More jobs may also go before September. Price inflation continues to rise. However, business confidence is improving with many people in business feeling less pessimistic about the general business situation than the last quarter.

Exports To Lead Growth Next Month

Medium sized firms are reporting an increase in confidence for the first time since April 2007. They are expecting a growth in orders despite a marked fall in the volume of total new orders in July. Export orders also continue to decline but again firms are increasingly optimistic about exports. As with orders, so output is also slowing, but the optimism about exports includes leading a return to growth in the next quarter.

The quarterly CBI report on SMEs says that business remains difficult but although the indications are that business is still falling it will improve over the next three months. The position of the pound has not made much difference to small and medium sized businesses and their exports but they are responding to improved credit conditions. Firms are still running down stocks and working below capacity.

Difficult Summer For Shops

The CBI tell us that shops are still having a bad time in the High Street as retail falls again for the third month in a row. Their forecast for August is no better. The results are mitigated by saying that the fall is no greater than the rises we saw in May and June and a lot better than the falls between July 2008 and March 2009. That's better than expected by a lot of people.

Sales volumes are down but not as much as expected. Stocks are adequate to meet demand even though they are below average for the thrid succesive month. Orders fell again and the outlook for all of these figures is more of the same in August.

When looking at the individual sectors, grocers are seeing strong growth, as are footwear and leather with its best result since August 2007. Hardware, china & DIY, and furniture & carpets are reported falls while household durables fall is slower than last year. Wholesalers sales volumes fell in the year to July. In particular it was a difficult month for industrial materials and builders' merchants wholesalers. Food and drink wholesalers however reported another month of strong growth.

Manufacturing Decline Slowing Down

The CBI quarterly Industrial Trends survey suggests the rate of decline in manufacturing may be slowing but a return to growth is not within sight for the next quarter at least. Firms are continuing to run down stocks and stocks of finished goods running down at the fastest rate for over 50 years. However, stock adequacy is such that firms are planning to continue to run them down at the same rate next quarter. Export demand also continues to fall despite the weakness of the pound and price cuts. Firms also reported employment continues to fall.