GDP Down More Than Expected

GDP in terms of volume decreased by 0.6% in Q4 2010 which is a downward revision of the decrease of 0.5% published in January. Production industries increased by 0.7% but services decreased by 0.7% and construction decreased by 2.5%. The GDP deflator is 2.8% above the sdame quarter of 2009. Household expenditure was down 0.1% in real terms and gross fixed capital formation down by 2.5%. The very bad weather is partly to blame for the change in GDP.

GDP Revised Up To 1.2%

UK GDP measures of output, income and expenditure increased by 1.2% on the previous quarter, revised up from the 1.1% preliminary estimate. The production industries were up by 1% and manufacturing 1.6%, services output increased by 1.7% and construction by 8.5%. Household expenditure increased by 0.7%, non-profit institutions by 1.4% but gross capital formation fell by 2.4%. GDP at current market prices increased by 1.7%. The GDP implied deflator is 4.1% for Q2 2010.

GDP Figures Revised Down Again

The figure for GDP volume for the fourth quarter of 2009 has been revised again to 0.4% from 0.3% last month. The chained volume GDP index for Q4 was 100.9 and 100.4 for Q3. At current market prices the GDP index was 112.6 and in Q3 it was 111.3. In 2009 as a whole volume of GDP fell by 4.9%. Total volume of production rose by 0.4% and manufacturing output volume by 0.8%. The agricultural sector ouput fell by 1.5% compared with the previous quarter. Construction output decreased by 0.9% and services increased by 0.5%.

The household saving ratio was 7% compared with 8.4% in the last quarter. Real household disposable income fell by 1%. In terms of expenditure categories gross domestic expenditure increased by 0.8%, household final consumption increased by 0.4% and government final consumption increased by 1%. The volume of household spnding is now 2.1% lower than in 2008. Government final consumption for the year 2009 increased by by 2.2%. The GDP deflator at market prices increased by 0.7% and is 1.4% above the level it was at in 2008.

Gross fixed capital formation fell by 2.7% partly due to a fall in business investment of 4.3%. General goverment investment increased by 2.8%, existing buildings and dwellings in public corporations fell by 71.3% and in the private sector existing buildings and dwellings increased by 10.3%. Over the year as a whole gross fixed capital formation decreased by 14.9% compared with -3.5% in 2008.

Hardly Any Change In Shop Prices

Shop price inflation was marginally higher in November with an increase of 0.2% after a flat October. Food inflation incrased to 2.8% in November from 2.5% in October. Non-food inflation was actually a deflation of 1.2% in November compared with a deflation of 1.3% in October. These shop prices are almost the same as last year. The GDP deflator at market prices is reported to be 2.45% for 2009-9.