Composite Leading Indicators Suggest Stable Growth In The OECD

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) continue to suggest stable growth momentum in the OECD. CLIs are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.

The US, Canada and the UK CLIs show stable growth momentum and in the UK growth is stabilising at rates above the trend. The CLI for Japan shows an interruption in the growth momentum although it is probably only a temporary effect. The CLIs for the euro area as a whole and for Italy in particular indicate a positive change in momentum. Germany may be losing some of its momentum but it is at a high level.

In the BRICS emerging economies, Brazil's CLI points to below trend growth, China and Russia are growing around the trend and India may be returning to faster growth with a CLI suggesting a positive turning point.

OECD Annual Inflation Increases To 2.1%

The CPI for OECD countries increased by 2.1% over the year to May 2014. It had risen by 2% in the year to April. The increase was mainly driven by increases in the prices of energy at 3.4% and food at 2.2% in May. There were diverging patterns across countries such as lower energy and food prices in the EU/OECD countries and higher in non-EU/OECD countries. The monthly comparison shows that excluding food and energy OECD annual inflation fell slightly between April at 2% and May at 1.9%.

UK Inward Investment At All Time High

The UK's International Investment Positions (IIP) were published recently by the ONS. Inward investment reached a record high of £936bn in 2012 and outward investment stood at £1,088bn, similar to the levels of 2011. Inward investment means investment in the UK by foreign companies and outward investment means investment abroad by UK companies.

UK companies net investment flows overseas decreased from £60.1bn in 2011 to 26.5bn in 2012. Investment flows to Europe show a disinvestment of £0.7bn in 2012, quite a decrease from the £27.3bn in the previous year. Net earnings from overseas investments by UK companies decreased from £100bn in 2011 to £80.2bn in 2012.

Foreign companies continued to increase their investment in the UK during 2012. Net investment flows increased from £28.9bn in 2011 to £35.4bn in 2012. Net earnings by foreign companies investments in the UK decreased slightly from £44.4bn in 2011 to £42.7bn in 2012.

UK FDI statistics are produced in accordance with international standards set by OECD and IMF and their definitions of FDI and balance of payments respectively. FDI estimates are important for measuring the UK balance of payments and they are used by a number of Government departments for briefing and policy purposes. International organisations like Eurostat, UNCTAD, OECD and the IMF also use the FDI figures for policy, analysis and negotiations and the estimates are also widely utilised by commercial companies, academics and independent researchers.

International Merchandise Trade Slow Again

Most of the major economies experienced a continuation of the slowdown in merchandise trade seen in the second quarter in the third quarter of 2012 according to data from the OECD. Imports and exports fell in Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, S.Africa and the US. Imports also decreased in France and the UK. Moderate export growth occurred in France and the UK. Exports fell in Canada, China and India. Imports grew moderately in Canada and China but there was stronger growth in India.

OECD Growth Of 0.2% In Q3

The OECD's provisional estimates for growth in member's GDP suggest an increase of 0.2% for the third quarter of 2012. The rate is the same for the previous quarter but there was divergent change across countries. GDP growth in the UK accelerated to 1% due to the Olympics. In the US growth increased to 0.5% from 0.3%. Growth in Framnce was also up to 0.2% from 0.1%. Growth slowed down in Germany and Italy saw the fifth consecutive month of contraction. In the G7, the seven major economies, on the annual comparison the US had the highest growth rate with 2.3% and Italy the largest contraction, -2.4%.

Signs Of Weak Growth Prospects In OECD CLI's

The composite leading indicators of the OECD suggest there may be weak growth prospects in major economies. The CLIs for Japan, Germany, France and the Euro Area pont to weak growth but there are signs of stabilisation in other economies such as Canada, China and the US and possibly Italy as well. Weak growth signs also appear in India and Russia.

OECD Inflation Up To 2.2%

Annual inflation in the OECD area increased to 2.2% in September 2012 from 2.1% in August according to data from the OECD. Higher energy prices, at 5.1% increase, were the main cause of the slight increase. Food prices slowed to 2.1% in September after an increase of 2.2% in August.If food and energy atre excluded OECD inflation was 1.6% compared with 1.7% in August. Euro area inflation in September was 2.6%. In the UK it fell from 2.5% in August to 2.2% and in the US it increased to 2% from 1.7% and remained stable in Canada and Italy. Inflation also fell in France and Germany.

OECD Leading Index Down 0.1%

The composite leading indicator index from the OECD shows a decline of 0.1% between July and August 2012 and a comparable fall with December 2011. The group of seven major economies also fell by 0.1% between July and August but the fall between August and December 2011 was 0.2%. The euro area, France, Italy and the US also fell 0.1%. Germany fell 0.2%. The UK index increased by 0.1%.

ODA Donations Second Largest In OECD

Gross public expenditure on development (GPEX) in the UK in 2010-11 amounted to £9,007m of which the DFID aid programme accounted for £7,689m. In 2009-10 the GPEX was £7,767m, an increase of 1,240m or 16%. If debt relief is excluded GPEX totalled £8,829m, an increase of £1,161m or 15% over 2009-10 total of £7,668m.

Official Development Assistance (ODA) in 2010 was reported to have been £8,452m. The donation makes Britain the 2nd largest OECD-DAC donor in this category of international aid. Britain's donations amounted to an ODA/Gross National Income (GNI) ratio of 0.57%.

The largest amounts of DFID bilateral aid went to India (£279m), Ethiopia (£251m) and Pakistan (£203m). Bilateral assistance was provided to 78 countries, 36 of which received direct financial aid. The total DFID bilateral assistance to these countries amounted to £2,265m, 85% of DFID country specific bilateral aid if humanitarian aid is excluded. The countries receiving the largest amounts of bilateral aid excluding humanitarian assistance were India (£279m), Ethiopia (£245m) and Bangladesh (£171m).

DFID bilateral humanitarian assistance total for 2010-11 was £351m, a decrease of £84m from 2009-10. The countries receiving the most humanitarian assistance were Sudan (£84m), Pakistan (£83m) and the Democtratic Republic of Congo (£47m). Bilateral assistance to sub-Saharan Africa increased to £1,760m from £1,539m or 14%.

The largest share of DFID bilateral assistance went to the health sector (£830m) follwed by the government and civil society sector (£782m) and the economic sector (£750m).

DFIDs multilateral programme amounted to £3,222m in 2010-11 from £2,436m in 2009-10 an increase of 32%. The largest share of the multilateral expenditure went to the European Commission's development programme (£1,269m) follwed by the World Bank (£927m) and the United Nations (£355m).

Modest International Trade Growth In First Quarter

Most major economies experienced modest merchandise trade in the first quarter of 2012 according to data from OECD. Total imports and exports of G7 and the BRICS countries increased by 1% and 0.6% respectively. China's trade dropped off sharply with exports contracting 4.2% and imports 3.8%.

OECD Leading Indicators Suggest A Potential Turning Point

Composite leading indicators from the OECD, designed to anticipate economic turning points relative to trend, show signs of regained momentum in economic activity in Japan and the United States. The Euro Area also shows signs of a potential turning point. The major European economies have, however, diverging assessments. The emerging BRICS economies show stronger positive signals than the last assessment.

OECD GDP Growth Slows But Stays Positive

Real GDP growth in the OECD countries slowed down to 0.2% in Q4 2011 compared to 0.6% growth in Q3. The major components were all included except for changes in inventories. There was slower growth in private consumption, investment and net exports but they remained positive. Government consumption was the main contributor to the slowdown decreasing growth by 0.1%.

The broad based slowdown in demand differed at national level reflecting amongst other things differences in rates of economic growth. GDP growth was strongest in the US at 0.7% largely due to private consumption. Private consumption was also the main driver in Canada which showed growth on 0.4%. France remained positive at 0.2%. Japan and Germany both reported negative growth of 0.2%. Other countries with negative GDP growth in Q4 2011 included Italy -0.7% and the UK with 0.3%

Inflation In The OECD Continues To Rise In September

Consumer prices in the OECD countries continued to rise in September by 3.3% after a 3.2% increase in August. It is the highest rate since October 2008. The 5.2% rise in inflation in the UK in September was mainly due to the 18.1% rise in energy prices in September after a 12.3% rise in August. It is back to the peak of September 2008, the highest since records began in January 1997. Consumer price inflation also increased in Italy (3%), Germany (2.6%), the US (3.9%) and Canada (3.2%). In France prices remained stable but in Japan prices fell by 0.2% to 0%. In Europe, the HICP increased to 3%.

OECD Inflation Continues to Increase

Consumer prices indices for the OECD countries continue to increase. The OECD CPI went up by 2.9% in April 2011 compared with 2.7% in March. Energy prices accounted for much of the increase with a 13.8% rise compared with 12.4% in March.

Inflation accelerated most in the UK with an increase to 4.5% and the US to 3.2%. Germany also experienced an acceleration of inflation to 2.4%. France's inflation rose to 2.1% and Italy's to 2.6%. Canada remained stable at 3.3%. The euro area inflation (HICP) was at 2.8% in May from 2.7% in April.

The latest figures from Eurostat suggest that euro area inflation was back to 2.7% again in May with EU inflation at 3.2%.

OECD CLI Suggest Slow Down In Recovery

The Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) published by the OECD for April 2011 suggest a slight loss of momentum in most major economies with the US the exception. Stability in the pace of expansion was suggested in Germany and the UK but France, Italy and Canada show signs of a slowdown. Signs of a slowdown also appear in China, Brazil, India and Russia.

OECD CLIs Show Signs Of Expansion

The composite leading indicators of the OECD countries for February 2011 signify continued expansion in the economies of most member countries. The OECD area annual growth rate was 1.8% compared with the Euro area 1%. The trend of expansion is continuing in Germany and the United States. The rate of expansion seems to be slower but stable in the UK. France and Canada are possibly regaining momentum but Italy may be losing momentum.

Russia seems to be continuing its current economic expansion phase while China shows signs of more moderate economic activity. India is pointing towards a slowdown but Brazil should remain near its long-term potential. The Major 5 Asian economies grew by 0.2% over the last year and the Major 7 by 2.1%.

GDP Up 0.8% In Q3 2010

GDP in the UK rose by 0.8% in the third quarter of 2010 compared with the previous quarter. Ouput in the production industries increased by 0.6% and manufacturing by 1%. Household expenditure increased by 0.3% gross fixed capital formation by 0.6% and current market prices by 1%. The service industries increased their putput by 0.6% and construction by 4%.

Eurostat released figures showing GDP increased by 0.4% in the euro area and 0.5% in EU27 during Q3 2010 compared with Q2. Compared with last year GDP increased by 1.9% in the euro area and 2.2% in EU27. In the OECD, GDP rose by 0.6% the sixth consecutive month of growth on the quarter and 3.1% compared with last year.

OECD Unemployment Remains At 8.5%

The OECD unemployment rate stayed at 8.5% in September 2010 unchanged from August and it has been broadly the same since July. Recent figures from the US and Canada confirm this stability. The OECD level remains at a level close to post-war high levels though wide divergences exist at national levels. There were 0.6m fewer people unemployed than in September last year but 15.4m more than September 2007.

CLI Shows Signs Of A Peak In US Economy

The OECD composite leading indicators for August suggest that economic expansion is continuing to slow down. The CLI decreased by 0.1 point in August for the fourth month in a row. A downturn is expected in Canada, France, UK, Italy, Brazil, India and China. Expansion is indicated for Germany, Japan and Russia. The US is showing signs of a peak in economic activity.

OECD Unemployment Fell In August

The unemployment rate in the OECD countries fell by 8.5% in August from 8.6% in July. Unemployment appears to be stable across OECD countries. In the US unemployment remained the same as last month and it fell in Canada. It is still near its highest post-war levels.