Euro Area Inflation Stable At 0.5%

The euro area annual inflation rate in June 2014 was stable compared with May at 0.5% according to Eurostat. The European Union annual inflation ratio increased to 0.7% from 0.6% in May. Monthly inflation in the euro area and the wider European Union was 0.1% in June. The UK recorded the highest inflation rate in June with 1.9%.

Composite Leading Indicators Suggest Stable Growth In The OECD

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) continue to suggest stable growth momentum in the OECD. CLIs are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.

The US, Canada and the UK CLIs show stable growth momentum and in the UK growth is stabilising at rates above the trend. The CLI for Japan shows an interruption in the growth momentum although it is probably only a temporary effect. The CLIs for the euro area as a whole and for Italy in particular indicate a positive change in momentum. Germany may be losing some of its momentum but it is at a high level.

In the BRICS emerging economies, Brazil's CLI points to below trend growth, China and Russia are growing around the trend and India may be returning to faster growth with a CLI suggesting a positive turning point.

New Pocketbook Of Agricultural Statistics

There are some interesting statistics in the new Pocketbook on agriculture, forestry and fisheries statistics.

France is the main producer of cereals in the EU28 with 285m tonnes or 24% of the total, Germany produced 16% (45.4m tonnes) and the UK contributed 19.5m tonnes or 7%. France was also the biggest producer of common wheat with 28% of total EU28 production, grain maize (26%) and barley (21%). Germany was the main rye and maslin producer with 43%.

The largest quantity of cow's milk was produced by Germany with 29.7m tonnes or 21% of total EU28 production then France with 24.4m tonnes or 17% and the UK with 13.6m tonnes or 10%. The UK was the biggest producer of drinking milk with 6.9m tonnes or 22% of EU28 production. Germany was the biggest producer of cheese (23%), cream (21%) and butter (23% in the EU28 with France following with 21%, 16% and 20% respectively.

Healthy Life Years To Go

Healthy life years measure the number of years a person can expect to live in a generally healthy condition. At birth, in 2011, men and women in the EU27 could expect to live to 62 years. At 50 people could expect to live another 18 years and at 65 people in Europe culd expect another 9 healthy years of life.

A healthy condition is defined as the absence of limitations to functioning/disability. It is measured by a self-perceived questionnaire asking for the extent of any limitations lasting for over 6 months and caused by a health problem. The indicator of healthy life years measures the number of years a person can expect to live without any serious health problems. It means the respondenets can carry on their usual activities.

At birth, men and women in Sweden and Malta can expect to live to over 70 years. The lowest numbers of healthy life years were 52 in Slovakia and 54 in Slovenia for both men and women. At 50 both women and men were expected to have more than another 20 years in Sweden, Malta and Denmark, Luxembourg, Ireland and the UK. The lowest was Slovakia with 10 years for both men and women. At 65, highest healthy life years were in Sweden with an additional 15 years for women and 14 for men and the lowest Was Slovakia with 3 and 4 years respectively.

More Waste Being Recycled

The EU27 generated 503kg of municipal waste per person in 2011 and 486kg of waste per person was treated in one way or another. Municipal waste means the large quantities of waste generated by households, but may also include the waste generated by small businesses and public institutions collected by the municipal authority. Waste is treated in different ways: landfill (into or onto land), incineration ( at incinerations plants), recycling (reprocessing into other products except fuel) and composting (biological treatment of biodegradable matter into another product). In 2011 37% was landfilled, 23% was incinerated, 25% was recycled and 15% was composted. This compares with 2001 figures of 56% landfilled, 17% incinerated, 17% recycled and 10% composted.

The amount of municipal waste generated varies significantly across European countries. The average for the EU27 was 503kg per person. Denmark generated the highest amount of waste with 718kg per person in 2911. Luxembourg, Cyprus and Ireland generated between 600 and 700kg per peron. Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Latvia, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Poland and Estonia generated less than 400kg per person.

Romania was the country with the highest percentage of landfill treatment with 99%. The highest percentage for incineration was in Denmark with 54% of municipal waste being treated in that way. Germany came top for recycling with 45%. Austria with 34% had the highest rate for composting.

The UK sends 49% of its municipal waste to landfill, 12% is incinerated, 25% is recycled and 14% is composted. The EU27 averages are 37%, 23%, 25% and 15% respectively.

UK FDI Continues To Increase

Companies from the UK have continued to increase their net investment overseas to give the highest figure since 2008 for 2011. Inward investment flows to the UK however continued to fall to reach £31.9bn the smallest since 2004. Outward and inward investment positions increased to reach record highs of £1098.2bn and £766.2bn respectively in 2001. Net earnings from outward investment reached £101.6bn the highest since records began (1958). Net earnings from direct investment are recovering from the falls of 2008. Earnings reached £37.6bn in 2010 and £43.6bn in 2011. Net investment overseas is possibly a reflection of strong growth in emerging markets like China and India.

International Merchandise Trade Slow Again

Most of the major economies experienced a continuation of the slowdown in merchandise trade seen in the second quarter in the third quarter of 2012 according to data from the OECD. Imports and exports fell in Brazil, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, S.Africa and the US. Imports also decreased in France and the UK. Moderate export growth occurred in France and the UK. Exports fell in Canada, China and India. Imports grew moderately in Canada and China but there was stronger growth in India.

OECD Growth Of 0.2% In Q3

The OECD's provisional estimates for growth in member's GDP suggest an increase of 0.2% for the third quarter of 2012. The rate is the same for the previous quarter but there was divergent change across countries. GDP growth in the UK accelerated to 1% due to the Olympics. In the US growth increased to 0.5% from 0.3%. Growth in Framnce was also up to 0.2% from 0.1%. Growth slowed down in Germany and Italy saw the fifth consecutive month of contraction. In the G7, the seven major economies, on the annual comparison the US had the highest growth rate with 2.3% and Italy the largest contraction, -2.4%.

OECD Inflation Up To 2.2%

Annual inflation in the OECD area increased to 2.2% in September 2012 from 2.1% in August according to data from the OECD. Higher energy prices, at 5.1% increase, were the main cause of the slight increase. Food prices slowed to 2.1% in September after an increase of 2.2% in August.If food and energy atre excluded OECD inflation was 1.6% compared with 1.7% in August. Euro area inflation in September was 2.6%. In the UK it fell from 2.5% in August to 2.2% and in the US it increased to 2% from 1.7% and remained stable in Canada and Italy. Inflation also fell in France and Germany.

Producer Prices Up Across Europe

Industrial producer prices (IPP) rose across Europe in August in both zones. In the euro area the IPP rose by 0.9% and in the EU27 by 1%. Both zones increased by 0.3% in July. Compared with 2011 the IPP increased by 2.7% in both zones. The main differences were in the energy sector with a 2.4% and 3.2% increase in the euro area and the EU27 respectively and in intermediate goods with increases of 0.5% in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU27. The highest increases in producer prices were to be found in Denmark (2.9%), the UK (1.8%) and Finland (1.7%). The lowest increases wwere found in Slovenia (0.1%) and Latvia (0.3%).

Decline In Economic Sentiment In Euro Area

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) produced by the Economic and Financial Affairs department of the European Commission remained unchanged in the EU27 but declined by 0.6% in the euro area to 89.9. There was falling confidence in industry, services and among consumers but increasing confidence in retail trade and construction.

Sentiment improved in the UK by 1.9 points, Spain (+1) and Italy (+0.9) but got worse in France and Germany by -1.5 and -1.4 points respectively. Germany is the only country which is above its long-term average.

Consumer confidence declined slightly by 0.3 points in the EU27 and 0.5 points in the euro area. The decline is based on falling confidence and expectations about the future general economic situation and increased fears of unemployment. Consumers' expectations about their own financial situation and savings have improved.

Deceleration In World Trade Expected

World trade expanded by 5% in 2011 but it was a sharp deceleration after the 13.8% rebound in 2010. Growth is expected to slow even more in 2012 to 3.7% below the 5.4% 20-year average according to the WTO. The slowdown was attributed to a number of shocks including the European sovereign debt crisis, Japanese tsunami and Thai floods hitting production in Japan and China.

Developed economies with export growth of 4.7% did better than expected but developing economies did worse than expected with an increase of 5.4% (developing economies include CIS and China). Developing economies were disproportionately affected by the Japanese earthquake and tsunami, the Thai floods and the disruption in oil supplies from Libya.

The rate of world output growth fell to 2.4% in 2011, down from 3.8% in 2010. The European sovereign debt crisis was the biggest problem along with the supply chain disruption from the natural disasters in Asia and the turmoil of the Arab Spring. Expansion was below the 3.8% 20-year average. The fastest growing economies in 2011 were China with 9.2% then the Middle East with 4.9%, CIS 4.6%, South and Central America 4.5%. The slowest included Japan with -0.5%, US with 1.7% and the EU with 1.5% growth.

Countries with the fastest growing trade volumes included India on 16.1% growth, China with 9.2% and the US with 7.2%. Africa had the biggest decline in exports with a decrease of 8.3%, Japan decreased by 0.5% and the Philippines exports declined 14.3%. China and India had the fastest growing imports with 9.7% and 6.6% respectively. Greece and Chinese Taipei had the most serious decline in imports with -20% and -3% respectively.

There were significant appreciation of the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc against the US dollar in 2011. The yen went up by 10% year-on-year and the franc by 17%. The Swiss National Bank had to intervene in currency markets to keep the value of the currency down against the euro. The IMF real exchange rates show the US dollar's depreciation was stronger in real effective terms at -4.9% and that the average appreciation of other currencies was overstated. The yen only appreciated 1.7%, the yuan (China) rose 2.7%, the Brazilian real stronger at 4.7% and the euro with a rise of 1.8% was quite small.

China was the world's biggest exporter with the USA second biggest, Germany third and Japan fourth. The USA was the world's biggest importer, China second, Germany third and Japan fourth. The Uk was the 11th biggest exporter after Belgium and the 6th biggest importer after France. The UK was second biggest exporter of commercial service after the US and the fourth biggest importer after the US, Germany and China.

GDP Per Capita Ranged From 45% To 274% In EU In 2011

GDP per capita estimates expressed in Purchasing Power Standards (PPS) in the EU in 2011 ranged from 45% in Bulgaria to 274% in Luxembourg, more than two and a half times the EU27 average according to Eurostat. The euro area GDP per capita was 108% of the EU27 average as was the UK. Germany was 120%, France 107% and Italy 101%.

OECD GDP Growth Slows But Stays Positive

Real GDP growth in the OECD countries slowed down to 0.2% in Q4 2011 compared to 0.6% growth in Q3. The major components were all included except for changes in inventories. There was slower growth in private consumption, investment and net exports but they remained positive. Government consumption was the main contributor to the slowdown decreasing growth by 0.1%.

The broad based slowdown in demand differed at national level reflecting amongst other things differences in rates of economic growth. GDP growth was strongest in the US at 0.7% largely due to private consumption. Private consumption was also the main driver in Canada which showed growth on 0.4%. France remained positive at 0.2%. Japan and Germany both reported negative growth of 0.2%. Other countries with negative GDP growth in Q4 2011 included Italy -0.7% and the UK with 0.3%

Retail Sales Down 0.4% In Euro Area

Euro area retail trade fell by 0.4% in terms of volume in December 2011 compared with November while it grew by 0.3% in the EU27 over the same period. Food, drinks and tobacco fell by 0.2% in the euro area and grew by 0.3% in the EU27. Non-food sector categories grew by 0.3% in the EU27 but fell by 0.1% in the euro area.

Total retail trade fell in eleven states and grew in eight states remaining stable in Ireland and Sweden. The highest increases were in Portugal (2.2%), Belgium (1.5%) and Poland (0.7%) and the biggest decreases were in Malta and Slovenia (both -3.1%) and Latvia (-2%).

The annual comparison shows that in December 2011 compared with December 2010 the food, drinks and tobacco sector fell by 1.3% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU27 and the non-food sector decreased by 1.5% in the euro area but grew by 0.8% in the EU27. The total retail sales index for the EU27 shows growth of 0.1% but in the euro area a fall of 1.6%.

Trade fell in ten states but rose in eleven. The largest increases were in Lithuania (13%), Latvia (7.1%) and the UK (6.3%). The biggest falls in trade were recorded in Portugal (-8.8%), Spain (-5.3%) and Slovakia (-3.3%) (Eurostat).

Producer Prices Up In Europe

The industrial producer prices index by Eurostat increased by 0.2% in the euro area in November 2011 and by 0.3% in the EU27 compared with October. When compared with November 2010 the index went up by 5.3% in the euro area and by 6.3% in the EU27.

Total industry prices excluding energy fell by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27 in the monthly comparison. Energy prices increased by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.3% in both areas and durables by 0.2%. Intermediate goods fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and capital goods remained stable.

In the annual comparison total industry prices increased by 3% in the euro area and by 3.3% in the EU27. Energy prices increased by 12.3% and 13.8% respectively. Prices in the non-durable goods sector increased by 3.6% in the euro area and 4.2% in the EU27, intermediate goods by 3.5% and 3.8% respectively, durables by 2.6% in both zones and capital goods by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27.

Sweden reported the largest increases on the monthly comparison with 1.6%, followed by the UK, Ireland and Greece. Using the annual comparison, the greates increases were in the UK with 11.6% followed by Lithuania (10.8%) and Latvia (9.1%).

UK Inflation Highest In Europe

Euro area annual inflation was unchanged from October at 3% in November. Monthly inflation was 0.1%. EU annual inflation was also unchanged from October at 3.4%. Monthly inflation was 0.2%.

The lowest annual rates among member states were in Sweden (1.1%), Malta (1.5%) and Ireland (1.7%). The highest inflation rates in November were in Slovenia and the UK (both 4.8%).

September Retail Trade Down In Europe

The volume of retail trade in Europe fell in both the euro zone and the EU in general in September when compared with August 2011. The year on year retail sales index also fell in both areas.

Volume fell by 0.7% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27 during the month between August and September. The non-food sector fell by 0.8% in the euro area and 0.9% in the EU while food, drink and tobacco remained unchanged in the euro area and rose by 0.1% in the EU27. The total retail trade index fell in 11 of the member states and rose in 8. The highest decreases were in Portugal (-3.7%), Slovenia (-2.1%) and Spain (-1.7%) and the largest increases were in Poland (2.4%), UK (1%) and Latvia (0.9%).

The index fell by 1.5% in the euro area and 0.8% in the EU27 when comparing 2010 and 2011. The food category fell by 0.5% in the euro area and 0.4% in the EU as a whole. The non-food sector fell by 1.9% and 0.8% respectively. The highest decreases were in Malta (-7.5%), Portugal (-6.2%) and Spain (-5.8%). The highest increases were in Lithuania (10.6%), Luxembourg (8.3%) and Latvia (8.1%).

Inflation In The OECD Continues To Rise In September

Consumer prices in the OECD countries continued to rise in September by 3.3% after a 3.2% increase in August. It is the highest rate since October 2008. The 5.2% rise in inflation in the UK in September was mainly due to the 18.1% rise in energy prices in September after a 12.3% rise in August. It is back to the peak of September 2008, the highest since records began in January 1997. Consumer price inflation also increased in Italy (3%), Germany (2.6%), the US (3.9%) and Canada (3.2%). In France prices remained stable but in Japan prices fell by 0.2% to 0%. In Europe, the HICP increased to 3%.

Falls In UK Productivity Levels

Productivity per worker in the UK fell relative to all G7 countries except Italy and Germany in 2010, but it was above that of Japan and similar to Canada. The productivity gap between the UK and the US is the biggest since 1994. All G7 countries have seen an increase in GDP per worker and GDP per hour between 2009 and 2010. UK productivity was lower than the G7 average on both measures. GDP per worker was lower than in France, Italy and the US (the highest in G7).

All G7 countries experienced productivity growth in GDP per hour worked in 2010. In the UK growth was the result of a combination of a fall in actual hours worked and an increase in GDP. While the UK experienced a fall in hours worked per worker between 2009 and 2010 other countries saw a reduction in total hours as a result of lower employment.

The US saw the largest growth in GDP per worker of the G7 countries. The UK previously a fast growth country saw falls similar to those in Canada, France and Germany due to employment falling more slowly than GDP.