Composite Leading Indicators Suggest Stable Growth In The OECD

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLIs) continue to suggest stable growth momentum in the OECD. CLIs are designed to anticipate turning points in economic activity relative to trend.

The US, Canada and the UK CLIs show stable growth momentum and in the UK growth is stabilising at rates above the trend. The CLI for Japan shows an interruption in the growth momentum although it is probably only a temporary effect. The CLIs for the euro area as a whole and for Italy in particular indicate a positive change in momentum. Germany may be losing some of its momentum but it is at a high level.

In the BRICS emerging economies, Brazil's CLI points to below trend growth, China and Russia are growing around the trend and India may be returning to faster growth with a CLI suggesting a positive turning point.

Modest International Trade Growth In First Quarter

Most major economies experienced modest merchandise trade in the first quarter of 2012 according to data from OECD. Total imports and exports of G7 and the BRICS countries increased by 1% and 0.6% respectively. China's trade dropped off sharply with exports contracting 4.2% and imports 3.8%.

OECD Leading Indicators Suggest A Potential Turning Point

Composite leading indicators from the OECD, designed to anticipate economic turning points relative to trend, show signs of regained momentum in economic activity in Japan and the United States. The Euro Area also shows signs of a potential turning point. The major European economies have, however, diverging assessments. The emerging BRICS economies show stronger positive signals than the last assessment.