CPI Inflation Up To 2.8%

The CPI measure of inflation rose to 2.8% over the year to February 2013 following 4 consecutive months at 2.7%. The largest upward drives came from increases in energy prices and prices of some recreational goods, petrol and air travel. Downward pressure came from small price increases for food and soft drinks and a fall in the price of alcohol compared with the price rises of last year. It follows 4 years of widely fluctuating inflations rates.

The figures mean that a basket of goods that cost £100 in February 2012 would cost £102.80 in February 2013.

The new measure of consumer price inflation, CPIH including owner occupiers’ housing costs, has been launched. The CPIH annual rate is 2.6% in the year to February 2013, up from 2.5% in January.

Additionally, a new Retail Prices Index-based index using a geometric formulation (known as the Jevons formula) has also been launched. The 12-month rate for this index, known as RPIJ, stands at 2.6% in February compared with 2.7% in January.

Annual CPI Down To 2.8%

CPI annual inflation fell from 3% in April to 2.8% in May 2012 according to data from the ONS. It is the lowest annual rate since November 2009 (1.9%). The index is 122.8 in May 2012 based on 100 in 2005.

The downward pressures came from motor fuel and food and non-alcoholic beverages. Upward pressure came from air and sea transport.

RPI inflation in May stands at 3.1% from 3.5% in April. It is the lowest since December 2009. Downward pressure came from petrol and oil and food, upward pressure came from other travel costs (incl. air transport).

Inflation Down To 4.2% In December

CPI annual inflation for Decmber 2011 stood at 4.2%, down from 4.8% in November. The biggest downward pressure came from petrol, gas and clothing. Upward pressure came mainly from landline and mobile telephone charges.

RPI stood at 4.8%, down from 5.2% in November. The main pressures on the RPI came from the same sectors as affected the CPI with upward pressure also coming from car insurance. Data from ONS.

Inflation Down to 4.8% In November

Inflation fell to 4.8% in November from the 5% figure of October. The index number is 121.2 (2005=100). RPI stands at 5.2%. Food, petrol, clothing and furniture household and equipment and maintenance provided the largest downward pressure. Domestic heating and off sales of alcohol provided upward pressure to the CPI. While upward pressure came from the same sectors as the CPI, downward pressure on the RPI came from wines and spirits off sales and fuel and light.

Big Increase In The Price Of Inputs

Output prices in manufacturing increased by 4.8% in the year to January 2011 compared with 4.1% last month. Month on month the output price index rose by 1%. Petrol, food and chemicals were the main items responsible for the increase. Input prices increased by 13.4% over the year to January, the highest increase since 2008, compared with 12.9% last month, excluding the more volatile products the increase was 9.9%. Month on month the total input price index increased by 1.7%.

Consumer Inflation At 3.2%

Annual inflation increased from 3.1% in September to 3.2% last month according to figures released by ONS. The main upward pressure for the change came from petrol and diesel, financial services and games, toys and hobbies (mainly computer games bought in shops rather than online) and the main downward pressure came from food prices. Vegetable prices fell 1% and meat prices were unchanged but went up last year. The index stands at 115.2.

There was an increase of 0.3% over the month. The most significant contributions came from recreation and culture (games, toys and hobbies 1.9% and cultural services 1.7%) and transport (fuels and lubricants 1.8%). Downward pressure over the month came from furniture, household equipment and maintenance (furniture and furnishings -3.4%) and clothing and footwear (-0.7% largely from garments).

CPI Unchanged At 3.1%

The consumer price index remained at 3.1% in August according to the ONS even though there were significant upward and downward pressures on the index.

Rising air fares (16.1%), clothing (2.8%) and food were the most important contributors to upward pressure while a fall in second-hand car prices and falling petrol and diesel prices contributed downward pressure.

The most important upward contributions to the change in the 12 month rate came from clothing and footwear, food and non-alcoholic beverages. Downwrad pressure contributing to the change came from transport and furniture, household equipment and maintenance.

The 12 month rate to August was affected by upward pressure from transport (1.2%), food and alcoholic beverages (0.5%) and restaurants and hotels (0.4%). Clothing and footwear contributed downward pressure.

The RPI all items index and the RPIX increased by 4.7% from 4.8% in July.

CPI Inflation Falls To 3.2% In June

Headline CPI inflation for June 2010 was 3.2%, down from 3.4% in May and stood at 114.6 (2005=100). The main contributors to the fall in the annual CPI were undoubtedly falling petrol and diesel prices and it was also helped by a record fall in June sales prices for clothing and footwear. Upward pressure on inflation came mainly from rises in air fares and increased insurance premiums.

The CPI rose 0.1% between May and June 2010 but the changes are within the normal range for that period. The main causes of the monthly changes were increases in the prices of computer games ands consoles within the recreation and culture category, increased European and long-haul air fares and a record increase for May to June of 5.7% in transport insurance premiums. The downward pressure from clothing and footwear of a 2.1% fall in prices was due mainly to women's outerwear.

The all-items RPI and the RPIX (RPI excluding mortgage payments) increased by 5% from 5.1% in May. The RPIY (excluding mortgage payments and indirect taxes) increased by 3.8%.

Inflation Hits 3.5%

The Governor of the Bank of England had to write to the Prime Minister to explain the fact that CPI inflation hit 3.5% in January. It is the second largest ever increase in the annual rate between 2 months. There was a 1% increase in the annual rate between November and December. CPI records began in 1996. The all items CPI is 112.4 down from 112.6 in December a change of 0.2% and although the index took a downward movement it is the greatest growth ever for those two months.

Both of these record movement can be at least partially explained by the 15% to 17.5% increase in VAT in January which also affected RPI. Another factor was the price of crude oil. The all goods CPI annual rate is 3.9% from 3.2% last month and the all services CPI annual rate is 3% from 2.6% last month.

The all items RPI in January was 217.9 down from 218 in December, the annual rate being 3.7% from 2.4%. The RPIX (excluding mortgage interest payments) was 4.6% from 3.8%. The all goods index was 169.3 from 169.7 or an annual rate of 6.5% from 5.3%. The all services index was 288.6 from 288.2, or an annual rate of 3.1% from 2.8% last month.

The largest upward contribution to the annual rate of CPI was from transport. Within transport the largest contribution came from a 2.2% rise in the price of fuels and lubricants compared with a fall of 3.4% last year. There were also large upward contributions from maintenance and repairs and the purchase of new and second hand cars. These were partially offset by a fall in prices in fares particularly in long-haul routes and sea transport. Another significant upward contribution came from recreation and culture where recording media particularly DVD purchases were significant along with subscriptions to cable and digital television.

Housing was a significant contributor to the increase in the RPI where mortgage interest payments rose this year but fell a year ago. After housing came motoring expenses mainly petrol and oil. Tobacco was also a significant contributor along with food, alcohol and household services, fuel and light and leisure goods.

Factory Gate Prices Increase Again

Output prices rose overall by 3.8% in the year to January, compared with a 3.5% rise in the year to December. The index rose 0.4% between December and January mainly due to price rises in petrol products, tobacco and alcohol products and other manufactured products. Input prices for materials and fuels rose 8.4% in the year to January compared with 7.4% in the year to December and 2% between December 2009 and January 2010 compared with 0.6% between November and December 2009.

Over the year to January output prices increased in all catogories except textiles and clothing which decreased by o.2% The biggest increase was in petroleum products with 20.6%. Electrical and optical went up 4.3%, tobacco and alcohol by 3.7% and both transport and other products by 3.3%. The changes over the month to January saw decreases in the output prices of food at 0.1%, textiles and clothing at 1.2% and metal products at 0.1%. Petroleum products went up by 1.7% which was the biggest increase over the month.

Input prices were generally up with a 70.6% rise in the price of crude oil. Impiorted metals went up by 7.1%. A number of categories prices went down in January including fuel at 16.1%. Imported food materials prices decreased by 2.8%, home food materials prices decreased by 5.7% and other home produced materials by 0.7%. Over the month the price of crude oil increased by 5.3% and fuel by 3.1%. Home food products materials prices increased by 0.4% and imported food materials products by 0.3%.

Producer Price Inflation Down 1.2%

The output price index for home sales of manufactured products was down 1.2% in the year to June according to the ONS Producer Price Index bulletin. The ‘factory gate’ index reflects a fall in chemical prices of 3.0% between May and June partly offset by increases in petroleum products of 3.9%. Leaving out ‘volatile’ sectors, like food, beverages, tobacco and petroleum, the ‘narrow’ index increased 0.1%. Petroleum products actually fell by 19.9% over the year. Input prices for materials and fuels bought by the manufacturing industry fell 11.0% in the year to June but rose 1.5% in the month from May to June. The ‘narrow’ index fell 2.6%. The rise in the input index reflects mainly the change in the price of crude oil rising by 14.3% in May but falling by 36.8% over the year to June. The price of imports fell 0.3% between May and June.

Inputs And Outputs Both Down

According to last week's PPI figures from the ONS output prices were down 0.3% in the year to May but rose 0.4% in the month to May. It compares with a rise of 1.3% in the year to April. The rise in petrol prices is partly the cause. Input prices fell by 9.4% in the year but rose 0.4% in the month to May. It is partly a result of a rise in the price of crude oil and partly offset by a fall in fuel prices. The output PPI was affected by Budget measures increasing petrol, alcohol and tobacco taxes which are estimated to have added 0.1% in May if passed on in full.

Output Prices Up, Input Prices Down

Output prices were up 1.2% in year-on-year figures to April compared with 2.0% on year to March. Monthly figures were up 0.6% March to April reflecting the rise in petroleum products originally announced in the 2007 Budget and additional increases in excise duty. The excise duty on products like petrol, tobacco and alcoholic drinks may have added 0.2% to the overall output index. Excluding duty the annual index was up 0.9% and the monthly 0.4%. The output prices index excluding food and beverages rose 2.4% in year to April and the monthly index was up by 0.4%.

Input prices fell by 5.0% in the year to April and by 1.0% in the month March to April compared to 3.9% last year. It is the largest annual decrease since a fall of 5.3% in 2002. The fall reflects an 8.2% fall in the price of fuel in the month offset by a rise in crude oil prices. The prices of imported materials fell 1.0% in the month. Input prices for manufacturing excluding food and beverages rose by 3.3% in the year compared with 7.6% in year to March but fell 0.7% in the month.