Noah's Ark

The Government is steering the ship. It has instruments of control to direct the economy in a particular direction. The most important instruments include public spending and taxation decisions to alter the course of the economy. Economic indicators tell us how well a policy is working. Budgetary instruments of control are used to vary the amount of public spending to increase or depress economic activity and to target its spending to try to influence groups or areas.

Earlier administrations have denied that government could control the economy in this way. The most they could do, they said, was create the right free market conditions and competition would do the rest. Governments still do try to steer the economy. It tries to control inflation as all post-war governments have done. The recent recession and government financial support for the banks show that free markets are far from perfect and government intervention is occasionally necessary (Jones et al. 1998).

At the centre of the machine are the Treasury and the Bank of England. There is considerable argument about the extent of their power but they have an important ongoing role in daily strategy and tactics in fiscal and monetary policy (Jones et al. 1998). The Chancellor of the Exchequer has initiated several policy actions in recent months to help cope with the credit crisis, stabilize the economy, control inflation and control unemployment. Macroeconomic objectives also include long-term sustainable economic growth. The Governor of the Bank of England has also used its policy tools to carry out its functions and achieve its objectives (Parkin, Powell and Matthews, 1997).

Recessions begin when investment slows down. If investment is maintained at a modest rate, capital stock grows slowly and the law of diminishing returns works in reverse. Real business cycle theory takes changes in investment demand and demand for labour into consideration. People can decide when to work and how much but must use the real interest rate. If the quantity of money changes, aggregate demand changes. The 'dismal science' says that however much investment and technological change occurs real wage rates are always being pushed back down to subsistence levels. It is the theory on which classical population growth economics is based. The classical growth theory is likewise based on the view that population growth is determined by income levels. Modern growth theories turn the classical theory on its head.

According to the modern growth theory founded by Joseph Schumpeter new technologies are the source of economic progress. In capitalist society it creates turmoil, a process of 'creative destruction' creating new businesses and destroying currently profitable businesses. Rising incomes slow population growth because they increase the opportunity cost of having children. Growth occurs because the technological advancement and productivity growth prospects are unlimited.

Miscalculations of inflation may give an inaccurate measurement of real GDP growth. They probably give a fairly accurate estimation of the phase of the business cycle. Other indicators, such as jobs, correlate. Real GDP figures can overstate the situation because in a recession household production and leisure time are countercyclical and tend to increase. They also tend to understate to long-term growth rate. Impulses will come from future expectations of sales and profits on one hand and an increase in money supply on the other. An unanticipated change in aggregate demand due to fiscal or monetary policy may also bring a change in real GDP (Parkin, Powell and Matthews, 1997). The banks must get things moving again. Economic policy is made up in the process of execution and relies on private bodies like banks. The economy cannot work without banks circulating notes and coins, processing cheques and acting as financial intermediaries to businesses (Jones et al, 1998).