Confidence Low In Small Businesses

UK SME's are still not confident according to the most recent CBI SME survey. Output is still at the same levels as last quarter but new orders are falling. Concern about the political and economic uncertainty increased sharply the survey suggests.

Retail Sales Down 0.4% In Euro Area

Euro area retail trade fell by 0.4% in terms of volume in December 2011 compared with November while it grew by 0.3% in the EU27 over the same period. Food, drinks and tobacco fell by 0.2% in the euro area and grew by 0.3% in the EU27. Non-food sector categories grew by 0.3% in the EU27 but fell by 0.1% in the euro area.

Total retail trade fell in eleven states and grew in eight states remaining stable in Ireland and Sweden. The highest increases were in Portugal (2.2%), Belgium (1.5%) and Poland (0.7%) and the biggest decreases were in Malta and Slovenia (both -3.1%) and Latvia (-2%).

The annual comparison shows that in December 2011 compared with December 2010 the food, drinks and tobacco sector fell by 1.3% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU27 and the non-food sector decreased by 1.5% in the euro area but grew by 0.8% in the EU27. The total retail sales index for the EU27 shows growth of 0.1% but in the euro area a fall of 1.6%.

Trade fell in ten states but rose in eleven. The largest increases were in Lithuania (13%), Latvia (7.1%) and the UK (6.3%). The biggest falls in trade were recorded in Portugal (-8.8%), Spain (-5.3%) and Slovakia (-3.3%) (Eurostat).

European Producer Prices Down By 0.2%

The monthly industrial producer price index for December 2011 fell by 0.2% in both the euro area and the EU27 according to figures published by Eurostat. The annual comparison shows an increase of 4.3% in the euro area and 4.9% in the EU27. The average for 2011 was 5.9% in the euro area and 6.7% in the EU27.

Energy prices fell in both zones over the month (0.4% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU27) but increased over the year (9.5% in the euro area and 9.6% in the EU27). The annual comparison shows the fall in the total industry (excluding construction) producer prices index decreasing year on year in the euro area. The trend is reflected in the index for intermediate goods in both the euro area and the EU27.

GDP Down By 0.2%

The preliminary estimates for GDP suggest that GDP decreased by 0.2% in Q4 2011. Production output decreased by 1.2% after a 0.3% increase in the previous quarter. Services were unchanged whereas they increased 0.7% in the previous quarter. The construction sector decreased by 0.5%.

The biggest single contributor to the decline in the production industries came from manufacturing followed by electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning.

Public Borrowing Lower Than Last December

The latest ONS figures for public sector finances show that there was a current budget deficit (excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions) of £10.8 billion in December 2011, £2.5bn lower than in December 2010.

Public sector net borrowing (excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions) of £13.7 billion in December 2011, £2.2bn lower than December 2010.

Public sector net debt (excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions) was £1003.9 billion, equivalent to 64.2% of GDP. PSND was £883bn in December 2010.

High Street Sales Up On December Last Year

The value and volume of retail sales increased in December 2011 over December 2010 according to ONS. Sales values increased by 6.2% over last year while volumes increased by 2.6% over the same period. Volumes were driven mainly by motor fuel and textiles, clothing and footwear stores. Last year was hit particularly badly by the weather.

An estimated £42.1bn was spent in retail during December compared to £29bn in November. An estimated £343.2bn was spent in total during 2011 compared with £326.2bn in 2010. Internet sales were an estimated 10.9% of all sales at £837.1m in December. Last year the figure was £652m (9.1%).

Unemployment Up To 8.4%

The unemployment rate went up 0.3% to 8.4% for the three months to November 2011. It the highest since 1995. The number of unemployed people went up to 2.68m. The highest since 1994. The number of young unemployed, those between 16 and 24, at 1.04m, is the highest it has been since comparable records began in 1992. The employment rate was 70.3% with 29.12m people in employment.

Average total pay was £464/week in November 2011 and average regular pay (excluding bonuses) was £438/week. Total pay rose 1.9% in the three months to November and regular pay rose by the same amount over the same period. Average total pay in the private sector was £462/week and regular pay £428/week and in the public sector total pay was £477/week and regular pay was £465/week.

Labour productivity increased by 1.2% between Q2 and Q3 2011 and unit labour costs increased by 0.5%. There were 164,000 redundancies in the three months before the ONS labour force survey. Workforce jobs increased by 150,000 to 31.27m. Administrative and support services jobs showed the biggest increase.

The number of vacancies fell to 463,000 in the three months to December 2011 or 1.8 vacancies per 100 employee jobs. (ONS)

Inflation Down To 4.2% In December

CPI annual inflation for Decmber 2011 stood at 4.2%, down from 4.8% in November. The biggest downward pressure came from petrol, gas and clothing. Upward pressure came mainly from landline and mobile telephone charges.

RPI stood at 4.8%, down from 5.2% in November. The main pressures on the RPI came from the same sectors as affected the CPI with upward pressure also coming from car insurance. Data from ONS.

Factory Gate Prices At A Low

The producer price index, which measures the changes in input and output prices of goods bought and sold by manufacturers in the UK, reported an annual increase in December of 4.8%, the lowest annual rate for factory gate prices for home sales of manufactured products since December 2010. The monthly index fell by 0.2%, the first monthly fall since July 2010.

Over the year the biggest percentage increases were in petroleum products (10.5%), food products (7.1%) and tobacco and alcohol (6.6%).

The total input price index rose by 8.7% in the year to December, the lowest annual rate since October 2010. It was 13.6% the previous month. The monthly index fell by 0.6%.

The biggest percentage changes in the month to December were falls in the prices for petroleum products and chemicals and pharmaceuticals (both -0.9%) and increases in the prices of food, paper and printing and computer, electrical and optical (all 0.1%).

The producer price index provides a key measure of inflation along with other indicators like the CPI and the RPI.

Estimates Show Euro Area Trade Surplus

The first estimate from Eurostat for euro area trade with the world in November gave a surplus of 6.9bn euros. Exports rose by 3.9%. The EU27 reported a deficit of 7.2bn euros. Exports rose by 2.8%, but imports fell by 0.6%.

Fall In UK Production In November

The annual index of production published by the ONS fell by 3.1% in November 2011. Manufacturing fell by 0.6%. The monthly index of production fell 0.6% between October and November, manufacturing falling by 0.2%.

The fall in the index was also mainly due to falls in mining and quarrying (14.2%) and energy (8.6%) as well as the fall in manufacturing. Oil and gas was the main contributor in the big decrease within mining and quarrying with a 16.7% decrease which contributed 14% of the 14.2% fall. The biggest contributor to the fall within manufacturing was in the basic pharmaceuticals and preparations industries with a 12.7% fall.

Industrial Production In Europe

European industrial production fell in November by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.2% in the EU27, according to Eurostat. The monthly index suggests that production fell by 0.1% in both areas compared with October when the index fell by 0.3% in both zones.

UK Trade Deficit £2.6bn

The UK seasonally adjusted trade deficit in goods and services in November was £2.6bn compared with £1.9bn for October 2011. Trade in goods was £8.6bn in deficit but the surplus on trade in services was £6.1bn. The volume of exports was down 1.7% and the volume of imports was up 1.1%. The prices of both exports and imports of goods fell by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively.

Global Food Prices Remain Fairly Stable In November

The FAO Food Price Index fell slightly again in November 2011 with the average at 215 compared with 216 in October. There has been a downward trend in global food prices since February 2011. The annual food price index increased sharply in 2011 to 229 from the 185.3 of the previous year. They are the highest since at least 1990. The overall food price index reflects increases in the price indices of the commodity groups that make up the index. The prices for sugar, oils, and cereals reported sharp increases. Food is a volatile sector for prices.

Retail Trade Lower Across Europe In November

First estimates from Eurostat suggest that retail trade volumes in the euro area fell by 0.8% over the month and by 2.5% over the year. In the EU27 trade fell by o.6% during November and 1.3% over the year.

Over the month the food, drinks and tobacco sector fell by 0.8% in the euro area and by 0.7% in the EU27. The non-food sector fell by 0.7% in both areas. Retail trade fell in 13 countries and rose in 7. Over the year, food, drinks and tobacco fell 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27 while the non-food sector fell by 3% and 1.1% respectively. Over the year retail trade volumes fell in 10 member states and rose in 10.

New Orders On The Increase In Europe

Industrial new orders increased by 1.8% in the euro area in October 2011 compared with a fall of 7.8% in September according to Eurostat. Orders also increased in the EU27 by 0.5% after a fall of 2.1%. Over the year since October 2010 industrial new orders increased by 1.6% in the euro area and by 2.6% in the EU27.

Producer Prices Up In Europe

The industrial producer prices index by Eurostat increased by 0.2% in the euro area in November 2011 and by 0.3% in the EU27 compared with October. When compared with November 2010 the index went up by 5.3% in the euro area and by 6.3% in the EU27.

Total industry prices excluding energy fell by 0.1% in the euro area and remained stable in the EU27 in the monthly comparison. Energy prices increased by 0.9% and 0.1% respectively. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 0.3% in both areas and durables by 0.2%. Intermediate goods fell by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively and capital goods remained stable.

In the annual comparison total industry prices increased by 3% in the euro area and by 3.3% in the EU27. Energy prices increased by 12.3% and 13.8% respectively. Prices in the non-durable goods sector increased by 3.6% in the euro area and 4.2% in the EU27, intermediate goods by 3.5% and 3.8% respectively, durables by 2.6% in both zones and capital goods by 1.4% in the euro area and by 1.5% in the EU27.

Sweden reported the largest increases on the monthly comparison with 1.6%, followed by the UK, Ireland and Greece. Using the annual comparison, the greates increases were in the UK with 11.6% followed by Lithuania (10.8%) and Latvia (9.1%).

Farm Gate Milk Price Decrease In November

The UK average price of a litre of milk in November 2011 was 29.3p, compared with 3.13p/l in November 2010. The average butterfat content was 4.17% and the average protein content was 3.33% compared with 4.11% and 3.36% respectively in 2010.

MUICP Estimated At 2.8% In December 2011

The rate of inflation for the euro area for December 2011 was estimated to be 2.8% according to Eurostat's flash estimated published recently. In November it was 3%.

Service Sector Growth In October

The services index published by the ONS showed that the sector grew by 1.1% in October 2011 compared with 2010. The sector output decreased between September and October 2011 by 0.7%. Three of the four main components of the index grew with government services increasing by 2.3%. Business services and finance increased by 1.5% compared with October 2010.

Public Sector Finances Improvement In November

Public sector net borrowing fell by £2.3bn to £18.1bn in November 2011 compared with November 2010. Net debt was £977.1bn. The current budget deficit was £1.7bn lower at £15.7bn

Euro Trade Surplus EU27 Deficit With Rest Of The World

Euro area trade with the rest of the world in October 2011 recorded a surplus of 1.1 bn euros, compared with 3.1 bn euros in October 2010. In October 2011 compared with September 2011, exports fell by 1.9% and imports by 0.7%.

The EU27 trade balance with the rest of the world showed a 11.0 bn euro deficit, compared with a 9.6 bn deficit in October 2010. In September 2011 the balance was -10.6 bn euros compared with -13.9 bn euros in September 2010. In October compared with September 2011, exports decreased by 0.7%, while imports increased by 0.5% (from Eurostat).

UK Inflation Highest In Europe

Euro area annual inflation was unchanged from October at 3% in November. Monthly inflation was 0.1%. EU annual inflation was also unchanged from October at 3.4%. Monthly inflation was 0.2%.

The lowest annual rates among member states were in Sweden (1.1%), Malta (1.5%) and Ireland (1.7%). The highest inflation rates in November were in Slovenia and the UK (both 4.8%).