OECD Points To An Expansion Slowdown

The Composite Leading Indicators from the OECD for March 2010 suggest that where the economic expansion has been taking place there may be a slowdown in the pace. Most of the signs of expansion and recovery say the OECD have been tentative but in France and Italy the signs are stronger. There is also a possibility that expansion may also be slowing in Brazil and China.

The CLI indicator for the OECD area as a whole was 0.6 points up in March 2010 with the US increasing by 0.8 and Japan by 0.9 points. The euro area increased by 0.5. Brazil and China both decreased by 0.3 points indicating the possible halt to expansion in China and to recovery in Brazil. India and Russia increased slightly by 0.3 and 0.6 points respectively.

Further Economic Expansion Likely In OECD

The signs from the composite leading indicators of the OECD for February 2010 are still in favour of further economic expansion in the growth cycles of member states. The pace across different countries and regions is however expected to vary. The US and Japan look the most likely to continue to increase their economic activity in coming months with an increase of 0.9 points each. Signs of slower growth were recorded in China 0.0, and France 0.1, and Italy 0.2. The OECD area increased by 0.7 in February 2010. The UK recorded an increase of 0.4 points. The Euro area recorded 0.5 and the G7 0.7 points. India 0.4, Brazil 0.3 and Russia 0.5 recorded fairly moderate increases.

OECD Economies Continue Expanding

The Composite Leading Indicators (CLI) for January released today (5 March 2010) from the OECD seem to show that the economic recovery and expansion that has been taking place in the OECD economies is continuing. The improvement in economic activity in the G7 is only marginally better than that for December.

The index for the OECD area increased by 0.8 points in January 2010, 11.3 points higher than January last year. The increase was evenly distributed between the 'Triads', the US, 11 points, the Euro area up 12.5 points and Japan 10.7 points. The statistics show that all G7 economies are in an expansion phase but Brazil and India and in a recovery phase, even though the 5 major Asian economies combined are expanding.

Continued Recovery In The OECD

Indicators from the OECD continue to point to recovery in OECD economies. The composite leading indicators (CLI) for Canada, France, Italy, Germany and the UK all suggest more expansion in the business cycle than last month. In these OECD economies the main drivers of expansion are finance and business confidence. Non-member economies are also doing better with all major non-members in the recovery phase of the business cycle.

The CLI for OECD countries increased 1 point in October 2009 which is 5.7 points higher than the same period last year and the outlook is for recovery. The UK CLI increased by 1.3 points in October which was 8.8 points higher than last year and the outlook is expansion. The Euro area increased by 1.3 points, 8.8 points higher than last year. The US CLI increased 1 point, 3.9 points higher than last year. France was 10.2 points up on last year, Germany 9.2 and Italy 12.5 points up on last year.

Among the non-members China's CLI had increased 0.2 points in October and 5.7 points on last year, India 0.2 and 4 respectively, Russia increased 1.6 points in the month but was 1.1 points lower over the year and Brazil had increased by 0.7 points in October and decreased 4.2 points since October 2008.

The outlook for the OECD economies is one of recovery and for the Euro area expansion. The economies of Canada, France, Germany and Italy are also expected to expand and G7 and Asian economies are expected to be in the recovery phase as are the major non-member economies. It should also be noted that any signs of recovery contained in the data are more concerned with recovery happening rather than any suggestion of the strength of the recovery.

OECD Survey Indicates Recovery

The OECD report that all major economies are pointing to recovery with France and Italy even pointing to potential expansion. The signs of potential expansion should be treated with care.

The OECD area leading indicator increased by 1.5% in August 2009 and was 0.6% higher than August 2008. The three main economies, the US, the 'eurozone', and Japan all reported increases in their indicators for August. The US increased by 1.6%, the euro area by 1.7% and Japan by 1.3%. Compared to last year however the US was 1.6% down, Japan was 3.9% down, but the euro area was 4.1% up. The UK increased by 1.6% in August and by 1.7% on last year. France increased by 1.3% in August and 6.6% on last year and Italy by 2% in August and 10.4% higher than last year. Germany increased by 2.4% in August and by 2.1% on last year.

The major emerging economies also increased in August. China increased by 1.5% and India by 0.9%. India was also 0.1% higher than last year whereas China was 0.7% lower. Russia increased by 1.1%, 10.2% down on last year. Brazil increased by 0.4% but was 8.5% lower than last year.

The OECD indicators are constructed from data that have similar fluctuations to the business cycle but precede it. Whereas the business cycle uses GDP data, the OECD use indices of industrial production.