Ageing In The European Union

Ageing in the context of EU statistics is the increase over time of the percentage share of the over 65 age group in the total population of a given area. It is increasing in the EU because of two factors. The first is that the number of people over 65 is growing and the second is because the number of children in age group 0-14 year is getting smaller. This is a general picture though and there are considerable variations in the types of area and NUTS3 areas.

The release from Eurostat tells us that rural areas are losing their young people faster than urban areas. It presents the populaton changes in 1158 NUTS3 areas of 26 member states (not UK) between 2001-2006. It takes the level of rurality of NUTS3 into account for three age groups - 0-14, 15-64, 65 and over. The changes mean variations in the population's composition.

The total population of EU27 has increased by 1.9% or 8,217,047 people with an increase of 9,708,045 people in the EU15 offset by a decrease in the new member states of 1,490,998 people or -1.4%. The 0-14 age group has decreased by 4.4%, the 15-64 age group increased by 1.9% and the over 65s by 8.9% or 5,961,157 people. A contrast can be seen between the 'old' and 'new' member states. In the new member states the 0-14 age group shrank by 14% and the over 65s increased by 5.3%. The over 65s in the EU15 increeased by 9.8%.

The types of area (TOA) analysis also show remarkable results. Ageing continues at a more pronounced rate in predominantly urban areas (46%), except in Spain and remained the same in Ireland and Sweden. Only 16.5% of the increase can be attributed to rural areas in EU27 where 21.4% of the population live. The combined effect of the two factors influencing population change mean that Germany, Greece and Latvia show a rapidly ageing population while France, Spain, Portugal and Italy, where over 20% of the population in rural areas is over 65, show smaller and even negative growth. In Bulgaria there has been a 5% population loss overall with a 10% loss in predominantly rural areas. It is also significant that in there areas the percentage of children fell by up to 17%. Also in Bulgaria where the number of over 65s fell by 4% they were not replaced by numbers from the working population.

The highest population gains at NUTS3 level were in Spain and Ireland with Guadalajara in Spain, an intermediate area, gaining 24.5% in population. At the other extreme Bulgaria and Germany decreased the most in population. The population of Kardzhali in Bulgaria, a predominantly rural area, decreased by 21%. The German areas were exclusively in the former East Germany. Barnim in Germany, an intermediate area, saw the highest increase in people aged 65 and over with an increase of 33.3% with Neubrandenburg on 33.2% and Potsdam on 32.9%. Vratsa, a predominantly rural area in Bulgaria, saw an decrease of 15.9% in the same age group. The highest increase in the over 65 age group was in Germany and the growth was not limited to the east but covered large areas of the west as well.

There were contrasts between east and west Germany and between north and south Italy. Only Berlin in eastern Germany grew in population size. Areas of northern Italy grew while the population of the south of Italy decreased.

Population Increases To Over 61 Million

The resident population of UK in mid-2008 is estimated to have been 61,383,000, up 408,000 on 2007 and 2m on mid-2001. The main contributor to the growth was 'natural change' in the difference between births and deaths. It is the first time in nearly 10 years that it has overtaken net migration as the main contributor.

The higher life expectancy of females is reflected in the fact that older females outnumber older males. The 'baby boomers', now aged between 39-48, are still 'bulging'. The low fertility of the 1970s is reflected in a narrowing of the population pyramid for ages between 31 and 38 and the pyramid also narrows between ages of 7 and 20 due to the low fertility of the late 1980s to early 2000s. From 2003 onwards the base has broadened because of an increasing number of births. The population continues to age. The over 85s reached a record 1.3m or 2% of the population in mid-2008 (422,000 men and 914,000 women). There were more pensioners than under-16s, 11.5m compared to 11.8m.

There are two main theories of population growth, the classical and the modern. Classical theory, the 'dismal science', emphasises real wage rates and the subsistence wage level, modern theory emphasises the improvements in health, hygiene and medicine that have enables people to overcome diseases and live longer and healthier lives. Population growth brings an increase in the demand for capital but is independent of economic growth and can still be very useful in economic model building. The Labour Force Survey and the Workforce-in Employment survey both use population data in comparing the UK with other EU and OECD countries and in calculating the unemployment rate, the participation rate and the employment-to-population ratio. The classical theorists are invalidated to some extent by the inverse relation of real income growth and population growth. Demand of all kinds depends on the size and age structure of the population.