Difficult Summer For Shops

The CBI tell us that shops are still having a bad time in the High Street as retail falls again for the third month in a row. Their forecast for August is no better. The results are mitigated by saying that the fall is no greater than the rises we saw in May and June and a lot better than the falls between July 2008 and March 2009. That's better than expected by a lot of people.

Sales volumes are down but not as much as expected. Stocks are adequate to meet demand even though they are below average for the thrid succesive month. Orders fell again and the outlook for all of these figures is more of the same in August.

When looking at the individual sectors, grocers are seeing strong growth, as are footwear and leather with its best result since August 2007. Hardware, china & DIY, and furniture & carpets are reported falls while household durables fall is slower than last year. Wholesalers sales volumes fell in the year to July. In particular it was a difficult month for industrial materials and builders' merchants wholesalers. Food and drink wholesalers however reported another month of strong growth.

Both Inflation Measures Down In May

The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.2% in May. The largest downward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic drinks with meat particularly bacon the biggest factor. vegetables, bread and cereals also had an effect. Alcoholic drinks and tobacco had the biggest upward effect. Recreation and culture also had an upward effect. The CPI index has been rising since January.

The Retail Prices Index (RPI) all items index fell by 1.1% in May and the RPIX, excluding mortgage payments, went up by 1.6%. The biggest contributor to the difference and the 2 indicators was mortgage payments. Buildings insurance went up as did motoring expenditure particularly the purchases of motor vehicles. Food prices were the main downward contribution.