Slower Rate Of Expansion May Continue

The OECD Composite Leading Indicators for April suggest that there is a slowing down of expansion in most OECD countries. The OECD area CLI increased by 0.4 to in April 2010, following from the 0.5 in March. The increase has slowed now for the nine consecutive months.

The growth cycle outlook suggests that potential peaks have appeared in Brazil and in China, France and Italy. The Major Five Asian economies (China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Korea) also display signs of a potential peak. The continuity is also there in Japan, US and Germany and is expected to be maintained though at a slower pace. Brazil's recent peaks were in October 2004 and May 2008 the most recent trough was in April 2009. The most recent trough in China was in February 2009 and their most recent peak was in December 2007.