Retail sales outperformed expectations for January according to the CBI distributive trades survey for February. The survey also revealed that although inflation has increased job losses have slowed down. Investment intentions have also improved.
The majority of respondents said their volumes were up in February with a marked improvement on January's survey results and beat their expectations. Orders improved in line with sales volumes. Retailers also expect further growth in sales and orders next month. Stock adequacy remains low.
The busines situation is expected to be fairly stable over the next three months. The job situation seems to be easing with the balance of businesses cutting back on staff expected to be the same in the next quarter. Annual capital expenditure in the next year is expected to remain about the same as in 2009.
Prices rose steeply in February but they probably reflect the changes in VAT coming in at the beginning of 2010. Clothing and grocers had a good month. Durables, furniture and carpets also did well. Among those that didn't do so well were hardware, china and DIY. Wholesalers did quite well but motor trades sale volumes fell and are expecting a further fall over the next quarter. The next quarter is expected to get worse, by a slight majority, and employment is expected to remain stable.
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