The economic outlook for OECD countries is getting better as the composite leading indicators (CLI) suggest stronger expansion is taking place. The G7 were all close to or above their long term trends. The underlying indicator in all these countries is industrial production and in them it has reached a trough. Expansion in the case of OECD CLIs means that the CLI is above the long term trend of the underlying indicator.
The CLI for the OECD increased by 0.9 in December 2009 and at 103.1 was 10.1 points higher than December 2008. The UK CLI increased by 0.9 from 104.9 to 105.8 and was 11.5 points higher than last year. The US and the Euro area also increased by 0.9 and were 9 and 12.2 points higher than last year respectively.
Inflation indicators from OECD include CPI which increased by 1.9% in year to December 2009. In the G7 it was 1.7%. Consumer prices for food fell by 1% in the year to December and for energy they went up by 8.5%. Consumer prices rose by 0.5% between 2008 and 2009 compared to 3.7% between 2007-8. The annual inflation rate in the UK in December was 2.9%. In the euro area inflation (HICP) was 0.9% in December 2009. US inflation (CPI) rose by 2.7% over the year to December.
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