Greenhouse Gas Emissions Third Quarter Increase

Total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year to Q3 2012 have been estimated to have been 560.7m tonnes of carbon doixide equivalent (MtCO2e), an increase of 0.3% on the previous quarter (559.1 MtCO2e). The temperature adjusted measure was estimated at 569.6MtCO2e, 0.3% lower than the previous quarter (571.0MtCO2e).

Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Q3 2012 have been provisionally estimated to have been 467.7Mt, an increase of 0.4% on the previous quarter (466.1Mt). Temperature adjusted emissions were estimated at 476.6Mt a decrease of 0.3% on the previous quarter (478.0Mt).

Both the actual emissions and the temperature adjusted measure showed only a very small change on the previous quarter and both actual and temperature emissions were similar to the same quarter 2011.

Source sectors' actual CO2 emissions as Moving Actual Total (MAT) show energy supply as the biggest contributor to the 467.7Mt total with 192.1MtCO2e, an increase of 1.3%, followed by transport with 117.9Mt, down 0.5%, business emissions totalled 71.6Mt (-0.8%) and residential emissions 70.1Mt (+0.7%). The public sector reduced their CO2 emissions by 0.5% contributing the least with 7.4Mt with 'other' making up the remainder with 8.7%, a decrease of 0.3%.

Farm Land Prices At All Time High

Prices for farm land reached all time highs in the first half of 2011 due to strong demand but the availability of land is slowing down the pace of growth according to the farm land survey results from the RICS. The demand is mainly due to commercial farmers being keen to expand production. Residential farmers demand didn't change much over the same period.

The 'transaction' based measure increased by 6% to £7,479/acre and the 'opinion' based measure increased by 5% to £6,115/acre. The growth rate has slowed down since H2 2010 but both measures are at all time highs.

Surveyors are suggesting that the farm land market is experiencing the same sort of subdued activity seen in the broader housing market. Commercial farmers however want to capitalise on higher commodity prices and therefore expand production.

Bare farmland prices increased in most regions but the strongest price increases were in the North East where prices were up by 14% and the East Midlands were they were up 10%. At the end of 2011 the most expensive land was in the North West where prices reached £6,938/acre, the cheapest was Scotland at £3,813/acre.

Less Agricultural Land Used In Development

The majority of the land use change statistics (LUCS) for land changing to residential use are for 2008. The LUCS have 24 land use categories and 58% of dwellings were built on land previously classed as residential, agricultural, vacant or derelict in 2008. The remaining 42% were built on the remaining 20 land use categories.

In 2008, 12% of dwellings were built on previously agricultural land compared to 14% in 2007, a fall of 2%. There has been a general trend since 1998 to use less agricultural land for new dwellings in favour of previously residential land.

Statistics for changes in the use of previously developed land are for 2007 when an estimated 55% of land changing to developed use was previously developed and 35% was previously agricultural land or agricultural buildings.

Provisional estimates also say that the average density of housing increased from 43 dwellings per hectare in 2008 to 45 dwellings/hectare in 2009. The Green Belt has seen an increase in the percentage of land changing to residential use from 5% in 2007 to 7% in 2008. In 2008, 2% of dwellings were built within the Green Belt which is unchanged since 2004.

Supply And Demand Combine To Increase Farm Prices

Farmland prices increased in H2 2009 after a slight fall in H1. The changes were due to a decrease in supply in both commercial and residential farmland sectors, stable demand in the residential sector and increased demand in the commercial sector according the the RICS Rural Land Market Survey for H2 2009. Price expectations increased but more so in commercial.

RICS publishes two different measures of farmland prices, the opinion based and the transaction based measures. The RICS opinion based measure of farmland prices increased by 4% to £12,715/hectare in H2 from £12,172/hectare in H1 2009. Arable land increased by 5% to £13,713/hectare in H2 from £13,085. Pasture land increased by 4%. In H1 it was £11,260/hectare and in H2 it increased in £11,718. The transaction based measure increased by 7.5% in H2 from £15,199 to £16,381/hectare.

Demand for farmland in the residential sector stabilised during H2 2009. Demand for commercial farmland increased. Some surveyors suggest commercial farmers are still interested in expanding their operations. Surveyors also suggest that low interest rates are making commercial farmland more attractive to non-commercial buyers. Supply however is falling in both residential and commercial farmland sectors. These conditions are expected to continue which will help increase prices further during 2010.

Farmland Prices

According to recent RICS data on farmland prices during H1 2008 there was a 47% rise year-on-year, the fastest in the survey's history, compared with 28% year-on-year in H2 2007. In H2 2008 both arable and pasture land prices fell.

Reported sales increased by 50% in year to H1 2008. The revised figures for H2 2007 show a fall of 2%. In H2 2008 farmland sales increased 16% to 270. Individual farmers share of purchases increased from 50-60% between H2 2007 and H2 2008 and agricultural businesses share increased from 5-8%.

Strong demand below all the time high of H1 2007 in H1 2008. Residential demand fell for the first time since Q4 2005 during the same period. In H2 2008 demand for residential and non-residential land both fell and in the residential sector it was the fastest fall in the survey's history. The lifestyle buyers were once one of the main drivers of the residential sector. Commercial sector demand is still strong. UK banks have been willing to lend to the agricultural sector and it has risen by 8.2% year-on-year.

The increases in availability in both residential and commercial sectors from H1 2008 remained stable. Rising input costs have been making it more difficult for many of the smaller farming estates. Residential sector supply fell at the fastest rate since H2 2005.

Commercial sector farmland price expectations remain positive, above the long run averages. Residential farmland price expectations became negative for first time since Q4 2005 in H1 2008 and fell further to the lowest in the survey's history in H2 2008.

The average price for arable land in England and Wales was £13,182/ha in H2 2008 down a fall from £14,463/ha a 20% change over the year and for pasture £11,490, from £11,477/ha and an annual change of 16%. The range was £11,120 to £14,827 for arable and £12,356 to £7,660 for pasture. The average rent in England and Wales for arable land during H2 2008 was £155 (AHA 86) and £226 (ATA 95) and for pasture £114 (AHA 86) and £164 (AHA 95).