Public Sector Deficit Increase In April

Public sector finances statistics show that in April 2011 the current budget was -£8.4bn and net borrowing was £10bn compared with -£5.6bn and £7.3bn respectively in April 2010. Net debt increased from £765.5bn to £910.1bn or 60.1% of GDP. Public sector net investment was £1.6bn down slightly from £1.7bn in 2010.

An Increase In The Number Of UK Businesses

The estimated number of private sector business in the UK at the start of 2010 increased by 48,000 to 4.5m according to statistics from the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills. They employed an estimated 22.5m people and had a combined annual turnover of £3,200bn. SMEs accounted for 99.9% of all enterprises, 59.1% of private sector employment and 48.6% of turnover. Two thirds, 64.2%, of private sector businesses were sole proprietorships, 27.6% were companies and 8.2% were partnerships.

The largest sector in terms of numbers of enterprises was construction with 899,000 businesses, professional, scientific and technical came next with 602,000. There were 146,000 enterprises in agriculture, forestry and fishing, 498,000 in wholesale, retail trade, repair and 291,000 in human health and social work activities.

The South East had the most private sector enterprises with 732,000, followed by London with 706,000. The East of England came third with 474,000. The North East had the least number of enterprises with 122,000. Next bottom was the East Midlands with 306,000. Scotland had 288,000, Wales 192,000 and N. Ireland 121,000.

Services Up 1% On The Year

The latest statistical bulletin on the seasonally adjusted index of services for March 2011 shows an increase of 1% on March last year. Business services and finance made the most significant contribution to the increase with an increase of 1%. Four of the five components of the services index showed an increase.

No Increase In GDP Estimate

The second estimate of GDP in volume terms remained as in April as an increase of 0.5% in Q1 2011. Output increased by 0.2% within which manufacturing increased by 1.1% and services by 0.9% but construction decreased by 4%. Output is now 2.4% higher than Q1 2010.

Employee income increased by 1.3% in Q1 2011 compared with 0.3% in Q4 2010. The operating surplus of companies increased by 1.4% in the first quarter of 2011. Taxes less subsidies on production increased by 7% but the VAT increase in January should be noted.

Household expenditure fell by 0.6% in the first quarter of 2011 and the level is now lower than in the same quarter last year by 0.3%. Government expenditure increased by 1% in the quarter and 1.1% over the year. Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 4.4% in Q1 2011 following a decrease of 1.8% in Q4 2010. Inventories' levels rose by £1.4bn in the last quarter.

The GDP deflator for Q1 2011 is 2.8% above the sdame quarter last year. Nominal GDP is up by 2.2% in Q1 compared with 0.5% in Q4 2010.

7.1% Fall In Business Investment

Business investment fell by 7.1% to £28.1bn in the first quarter of 2011 compared with the previous quarter and by 3.2% on the first quarter of 2010. Manufacturing investment also fell on the quarter by 1.2% to £2.8bn but increased 14.8% over the year. Non-manufacturing investment fell by 7.7% to £25.3bn over the quarter and 4.8% over the year. In the private sector, investment by services fell to £19.4bn from £21.6bn in Q4 2010.

Services Annual Inflation Up To 2.9%

The latest services PPI from the ONS says that 12 month inflation rose 2.9% in the first quarter of 2011 compared with a 2.7% rise in the last quarter of 2010. The latest quarter on previous quarter inflation figure was an increase of 1%.

The largest upward effect came from sorted recovered materials services with freight transport by road and freight forwarding also having an upward effect. Market research input inflation was 0.7% latest quarter on previous quarter and 1.3% annual inflation, advertising placement quarterly inflation was 2.5% and annual inflation 5.5%.

NIESR Estimate Growth Rate Of 0.3%

The latest NIESR monthly estimates of GDP released on 12 May suggest the underlying quarterly growth rate of GDP was 0.3% in April 2011. The growth estimate for March was 0.5%It does not take into account the Royal Wedding and the activites associated with it. The index for output for industry was estimated to have increased from 89.9 to 90.3. The indices for output by sector also suggest that agriculture remained unchanged at 91.0, private services decreased from 102.8 to 102.5 but public services increased from 103.6 to 104.1.

Retail Sales Up By 6.2%

There was a 6.2% increase in the value of retail sales in April 2011 compared with April 2010. The volume of retail sales also increased but by the smaller amount of 2.8%. The combination of the effects of warm weather and the Royal Wedding had an effect on sales.

Unemployment At 7.7%

The unemployment rate for the 16-64 age group for the three months to March 2011 was down 0.1% to 7.7% or a total of 36,000 fewer unemployed people according to the ONS Labour Market Survey for March 2011. The number of unemployed people in March was 2.46m. The employment rater was 70.7% and the number of employed people was 29.57m. In the 16-24 age group unemployment was 20% of the economically active population, down 0.5% on the previous three months. The inactivity rate was 23.3% and the number of economically inactive people was 9.32m. Those inactive due to long-term illness numbered 2.16m. The claimant count increased by 12,400 to 1.47m.

Average regular pay for public sector workers in March 2011 was £471/week and averege total pay (incl. bonuses) was £481/week. For private sector workers average regular pay was £422/week and average total pay (incl. bonuses) was £466/week. The earnings annual growth rate for total pay was 2.3% for the three months to March and for regular pay 2.1%. Actual hours worked per week in tyhe three months to March totalled 921.9. Average weekly hours worked over he same period was 31.6.

There 123,000 redundancies in the three mnoths to March, down 24,000 on the previous three months and 53,00 on the year. The redundancy rate was 4.9 per 1,000 employees. Working days lost due to labour disputes totalled 145,000 in the twelve months to March 2011, the lowest since records began in 1931.

Whole economy output per worker was 0.8% up in Q4 2010 compared with the previous year. hole economy wage costs increased by 0.7% over the same period. In December 2010 there were 31.26m workforce jobs with the largest increase being in human health and social work. Vacancies in the three months to April 2011 were down 30,000 to 469,000. If the temporary vacancies connected with the Census are excluded the total falls to 461,000. There were 1.8 vacancies per 100 employees in the three months to April 2011.

TB In Cattle Up In February 2011

The February 2011 estimate for the incidence of TB in cattle was above the rate for the same month last year. New incidents were up 13% on January-February 2010. There was also an increase in the number of herds tested giving the provisional overall increase in TB incidence (new TB incidents as a proportion of tests on OTF herds) of 5.3%. The average incidence rate for herds from which the OTF status has been withdrawn was 3.6% (OTF-officially TB free).

There were a total of 8,098 tests on herds and 734,049 cattle tests resulting in 456 new herd incidents. There were 2,927 reactors and 21 direct contacts giving a total of 2,948 slaughtered cattle.

CPI At 4.5% In April

CPI annual inflation in April stands at 4.5% up from 4% in March. The most significant contributions to the increase were air transport, alcohol and tobacco and gas. Downward pressure came from petrol and diesel, miscellaneous goods and services, clothing and footwear and communication. The RPI index recorded an annual inflaton rate of 5.2% down from 5.3% in March.

Cereal Usage - Wheat, Barley, Oats

Wheat usage amounted to 605,000 tonnes milled, up 9% and 55,000 tonnes going to brewers, maltsters and distillers up 1% according to data from Defra. Barley usage amounted to 158,000 tonnes going to brewers, maltsters and distillers, down 1%. The usage of oats amounted to 120,000 tonnes milled, up 5%.

Animal Feed Production And Prices

Retail production of animal feed was 5% down in March 2011 compared with last year. Raw material usage in the retail production of animal feed was also down 4.7%. Integrated feed production was up 0.1% compared with March 2010.

The average price of cattle and calf for the October to December 2010 period was £199 per tonne from £180 per tonne July to September 2010, pig feed was £236 per tonne from £213 and sheep feed was £197 per tonne from £183.

Euro Inflation At 2.8%

Euro area inflation in April 2011 was 2.8% from 2.7% in March and 1.6% last year. EU annual inflation was 3.2% in April from 3.1% in March and 2.1% last year.

Agricultural Producer Prices Up In March

In the monthly API of prices received by producers of agricultural products for March 2011 cereals went up to 251 from 247.9, industrial crops fell to 148.1 from 150.2 and fresh vegetables fell to 129.1 from 141.5. Seeds remained stable. Animal and animal products increased from 146.7 to 150.5 with animals for slaughter or export increasing from 150.4 to 156.4. The total of all products increased to 167.5 in March 2011 from 163.5 in February 2011.

Annual statistics for 2010 show cereals have increased to 171.8 from 150.1 in 2009, industrial crops to 138.8 to 132 and fresh vegetables to 131.9 from 113.9. The total of all crop products increased to 149.2 from 131.1. The total of all products index increased to 144.4 in 2010 from 136 in 2009.

Prices paid by producers for agricultural inputs in March 2011 included energy and lubricants increased in price from an index of 164.3 to 169.6, fertilizers and soil improvers increased from 223.6 to 227.9, plant protection products fell slightly from 103.7 to 103.6 and seeds remained stable. Animal feed fell from 191.6 to 188.7. Maintenance costs generally increased with repair of plant increasing to 132.1 from 131.3 and buildings from 136.7 to 137.4. Veterinary services costs remained stable at 123.9. Other goods and services fell considerably from 150.2 to the more usual 128.9. Machinery and other equipment increased slightly from 125.6 to 126.3 qand buildings from 130 to 132.5. The total for all means of agricultural production fell from 154.9 in February 2011 to 149 in March 2011.

In the annual series, the total of all means of agricultural production increased to 135.8 from 129.9. Within the total, there were increases in the prices of energy and lubricants which increased to 151.4 from 132.9 and animal feed which increased to 160.9 from 152.5. Maintenance costs increased from 121.5 to 126.9 for plant and 122 to 130.4 for buildings. Veterinary costs increased from 104.7 in 2009 to 118.8 in 2010. Machinery and equipment went from 122.1 to 125.3. Buildings increased to 126.9 from 120. There were some decreases. Fertilizers and soil improvers fell to 182.4 in 2010 from 189.8 in 2009 after the massive increases of 2008 (272.5) mainly due to price falls in compound fertilizers and the lime/chalk fertilizers and plant protection products fell across the board from 107.7 to 105.1.

Manufacturing Up By 2.7%

The index of production from thew ONS increased by 0.7% in March 2011 compared with March 2010. Manufacturing increased by 2.7% over the same period (figures are seasonally adjusted). The energy supply sector is also helping to drive growth.

Over the last quarter production grew by 0.2% with manufacturing growing by 1.1%. The largest contributions to the growth in manufacturing were in transport equipment (5.1%), food, drink and tobacco (1.4%) and electrical and optical equipment (2.9%). Mining and quarrying fell by 10.7% in March on March a year ago and by 1.4% on the quarter.

Surplus In Services But Trade Deficit Increases

The latest UK trade figures from the ONS show that in March 2011 there was a deficit on the value of trade in goods and services of £3bn compared with a £2.7bn deficit in February. Trade in goods showed a deficit of £7.7bn compared with £7bn in February. The surplus on trade in services was given as £4.7bn in March up from £4.3bn in February. The volume of exports in March was 3.4% down and imports 0.4% down on February. The price of exports rose by 1.1% and imports by 1.8% compared with February. Exports of services went up by £0.2bn to £13.8bn in March 2011 compared with February but imports fell by £0.2bn to £9.2bn. Over the year to March the trade surplus in services increased by £0.8bn to £12.9bn compared with £12.1bn in the previous quarter (Q4 2010). Total exports rose to £41bn but imports fell to £28.1bn.

European Industrial Production Falls In March

Seasonally adjusted figures for industrial production for March 2011 compared with February 2011 for the euro area fell by 0.1% and by 0.3% in the EU27. Production increased by 0.6% and 0.4% respectively in February.

Production of durable consumer goods grew by 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27. Non-durables decreased by 0.7% and 0.8% respectively. Intermediate goods were stable in the euro area and increased by 0.1% in the EU27. Energy production fell by 0.7% in the euro area and 1.4% in the EU27. Capital goods fell by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. Industrial production fell in eleven of the countries for which data is available and grew in nine.

In March 2011 compared with March 2010 capital goods grew by 10.5% in the euro area and 10% in the EU27 Durables grew by 2.4% and 1.3% respectively and non-durables fell by 0.6% in both groups. There was a decline in energy production of 2.2% in the euro area and 3.2% in the EU 27. The data availbale shows that between March 2010 and March 2011 industrial production grew in fourteen countries and fell in six countries. The largest growth was in Estonia with 32.7% and the biggest fall was in Greece with 7.5%.

OECD CLIs Show Signs Of Expansion

The composite leading indicators of the OECD countries for February 2011 signify continued expansion in the economies of most member countries. The OECD area annual growth rate was 1.8% compared with the Euro area 1%. The trend of expansion is continuing in Germany and the United States. The rate of expansion seems to be slower but stable in the UK. France and Canada are possibly regaining momentum but Italy may be losing momentum.

Russia seems to be continuing its current economic expansion phase while China shows signs of more moderate economic activity. India is pointing towards a slowdown but Brazil should remain near its long-term potential. The Major 5 Asian economies grew by 0.2% over the last year and the Major 7 by 2.1%.

Farm Incomes Show Slight Increase In 2010

The provisional estimates of the total income from farming for 2010 and previous years published by Defra and ONS show that TIFF per annual work unit (AWU) of entrepreneurial labour fell in 2010 by 3.4% in real terms to £23,953. Total Income from Farming increased marginally by £3.7m to £4.38bn and in real terms with adjustments for inflation fell by £198.4m.

Total factor productivity for the agricultural industry in the UK has increased by 49% since 1973. During that time the volume of the final output has risen by 25% while inputs have fallen by 16%.

Decrease In Trade Union Membership In 2010

Trade union membership fell slightly in 2010 compared with 2009. Membership density fell 0.8% to 26.6% and membership fell by 179,000 or 2.7% to 6.5m. During this time employment actually increased by almost 0.5% between 2009 and 2010. Density in the private sector fell by 0.9% and by 0.3% in the public sector acording to statistics from the Labout Force Survey and published by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and the ONS.

The professional occupations reported the largest percentage of union density with 43.7%. Sales occupations were lowest with 12.9%. Females are now more likely to be union members than males whether by age, public sector, workplace size, job or other individual characteristics.

Geographically, density rose in Scotland by 0.5% to 32.3% but the other nations recorded falls of 0.9% in England and Wales and 4.2% in N.Ireland. The trend over the last 10 years shows that trade union density has fallen by about 3% in England, Scotland and N.Ireland and by about 5% in Wales. The North East recorded the largest fall in trade union density of 7.4% over the last 10 years. The East of England recorded the smallest fall of 1%. The last 10 years has also seen an increase in union density in the professional and administrative services, wholesale, retail trade and motor repair sectors but fell in the other sectors. Water supply, electricity and gas recorded the biggest falls of over 15% each.

Trade union presence reached 46.1% in 2010, a fall of 0.5% on 2009 and 2.8% over the last 10 years (2010). Collective agreements affected the pay and conditions of over 30% of employees from 36.4% in 2000. They covered 16.8% of private sector employees and 64.5% of public sector employees. The public sector accounted for 62.4% of union members, professional, associated professional and technical occupations accounted for 45.5% of all trade union members.

Business And Finance Lead Services Growth In February

The seasonally adjusted index of services from the ONS increased by 1.5% in February 2011 compared with February 2010. All of the five components of the index recorded an increase but the largest increase was in business services and finance with an increase of 1.5%. The largest contribution to the increase was from computer services with 7.1% which contributed 1.5 percentage points to the 1.5% increase.

Looking at the most recent month on a year earlier distribution increased by 1.6% with wholesale contributing 3.7%. Transport, storage and communication increased by 2.7% with post and telecommunications contributing a 7.7% increase or 3 percentage points to the 2.7% increase. Government and other services increased by 1.2%. Health and social care made the largest contribution with an increase of 4.3% or 1.4% to the increase. Hotels and restaurants increased by 0.5%.