Wednesday, 27 April 2011

GDP Growth Of 0.5%

The preliminary estimate for GDP published by the ONS show that the economy grew by 0.5% in the 1st quarter of the year. It is also estimated that GDP has returned to the level of the 3rd quarter of 2010 after the abnormal weather conditions took 0.5% from GDP in the 4th quarter.

Agriculture grew by 0.6% over the quarter and 1% over the year. Construction output decreased by 4.7% on the previous quarter but grew by 6% on the year while production grew by 0.4% and services grew by 0.9% on the quarter and 0.3% and 0.8% respectively over the year. Compared with GDP in Q1 2010 GDP in 2011 grew by 1.8%.

Tuesday, 26 April 2011

Small Retailers See Larger Increase In Sales In March

The most recent retail sales index published by the ONS shows that the seasonally adjusted value of retail sales increased by 4.5% in March 2011 compared to March 2010 and the volume increased by 1.3%. The index also showed that on a month by month basis sales increased by 0.1% in value and 0.2% in volume between February and March 2011.

The March bulletin also included a supplementary study on small and large retail stores. The non-seasonally adjusted volume decreased by 0.1%. Over the same period large retailers decreased by 1.2% but small retailers increased by 3.9%. The biggest difference between large and small store growth was on food stores. The growth rate for all stores showed a 3.2% decrease but a 4.1% decrease for large stores and a 2.5% decrease for small stores. Food stores can be sub-divided into specialised and non-specialised stores. Non-specialised stores decreased by 3.1% within which large stores decreased by 4.4% but small stores increased by 12.3%. Specialised stores increased by 0.4%.

The non-food stores showed more varied results. Small non-specialised stores saw the biggest increase with 31.2%, followed by small other non-food stores with 8.5% and all other non-food stores with 7.6%. The biggest decrease was in small household goods stores with -10.2% with all household goods stores and large household goods stores following with -8.7% and -8.1% respectively.

Small stores are those with less than 100 employees. Large retailers are those with more than 100 employees or those with less than 100 employees but a turnover greater than £60m. All 900 large retailers were included in the sample. a representative sample of 4,100 small retailers was also included in the sample. The largest growth was in the 10-39 employment group with an average increase of 6.6%, then 0.9 employees with 6.5% average growth, 40-99 reprted 5.2% growth and the group with over 100 employees reported growth of 2.3%.

Price estimates for retail sales between March 2010 and March 2011 rose by 4.4%. The value of Internet sales in March 2011 was £529m or 9.8% of total retail sales in March.

Thursday, 21 April 2011

Agricultural Prices

The agricultural prices index shows that in February 2011 producer prices for cereals went up to 247.9 from 239.9. Industrial crops also increased from 144.1 in January to 150.2 in February. The index for the total of all products increased from 159.4 to 163.5. The annual series for cereals shows an increase of 21.7 from 150.1 in 2009 to 171.8 in 2010 and from 132 to 138.8 for industrial crops (potatoes, sugar beet and oilseed rape) over the same period. Fesh vegetabes in creased from 113.9 to 131.9. The index for all crop products increased from 131.1 to 149.2. The index for animals and animal products increased from 139.4 to 141.1. The total of all products in 2010 was 144.4 compared to 136 in 2009.

The means of production also generally increased to in the month February 2011. Energy and lubricants increased slightly from 163.7 to 164.3, fertilisaers and soil improvers increased from 219.1 to 223.6 and plant protection products increased slightly from 103.3 to 103.7. The prices of seed remained unchanged. Animal feedingstuffs increased slightly from 191.2 to 191.6. There were increases in the prices involved in the maintenance and repair of plant and buildings but the proces of veterinary services remained the same. Machinery and other equipment increased by 0.1 to 125.6 buildings remained unchanged. The total for all means of agricultural production increased from 150.2 to 154.9.

Over the year 2009-2010 seed prices, fertiliser and soil improvement product prices, plant protection products prices fell slightly but energy and lubricants rose significantly from 132.9 to 151.4. Animal feedingstuffs prices also increased from 152.5 to 160.9. Prices for maintenance and repair of buildings increased and veterinary services rose from 104.7 in 2009 to 118.8 in 2010. Machinery prices increased as did the cost of buildings. All means increased from 129.9 to 135.8.

Small Increase In Green Belt

In March 2011 the area of designated Green Belt in England was 1,639,540 hectares or 13% of the land area of England. London and the wider South East account for over half a million hectares (554,670 ha.) and then the West Midlands with over a quarter of a million hectares(269,380 ha.). The regions with the smallest area of Green Belt were East Anglia (26,030 ha) and the North East (72,990 ha.). Actual boundary changes that result in increases or decreases are rare. The changes that made a difference this time were increases in Slough (30 ha.) and the Vale of the White Horse (less than 5 ha.). A decrease was recorded in Enfield (30 ha.)

Defra Biodiversity Survey

The results of a recent survey on knowledge and attitudes towards the environment by Defra show that 92% of respondents said that it is important to hace green spaces nearby and 56% said they use them at least once a week.

The survey also showed that 48% of respondents had some knowledge of biodiversity, up from 44% in 2009. When prompted, 78% agreed that they worry about the loss of native animals and plants and about changes in the countryside. Volunteering had been carried out by 13% in the previous 12 months.

Producer Prices Increases Again

The most recent producer prices statistical bulletin from the ONS shaowed that in the year to March 2011 output prices rose by 5.4% and input prices rose by 14.6%.

Manufacturing inputs rose in price by 3.7% between February and March 2011 mainly reflecting the increase in prices for crude oil.

Output prices for food products rose 0.5% between february and March and 7.4% in the year to March. In particular, dairy products increased 1.1% notably butter, up 0.4% and bakery products up 0.5%.

Saturday, 9 April 2011

Inflation At 4.4%

There was an increase in the headline CPI for February 2011 to 4.4% up from 4% in January. The most significant drivers in the increases between January and February were in domestic heating costs and clothes. Alcohol and tobacco were the main downward pressures on inflation.

Public Sector Deficit £6.5bn

The public sector current budget deficit in February 2011 was £6.5bn (excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions). Net borrowing was £11.8bn. Central government borrowing was £10.3bn and local government £1.7bn (General government borrowing £12bn) with public corporations -£0.2bn. Public sector net investment was £5.2bn, less than the £5.8bn invested in February 2010. Net debt at the end of February was £875.8bn, or 58% of GDP.

Central government receipts were £43.1bn and expenditure was £49.3bn giving a current budget deficit of -£6.8bn. The net investment of £3.5bn gives the net borrowing figure of £10.3bn.

Saturday, 2 April 2011

Balance of Payments Deficit Increase On Quarter

The current account deficit increased to £10.5bn in Q4 2010 from a revised deficit of £8.7bn in Q3. It equates to -2.9% of GDP. The increase was due to hogher deficits on current transfers and on trade in goods and a lower trade in services surplus.

2.2% Rise In Services Over Year

The ONS index of services statistical bulletin for January shows that the index increased by 2.2% in January 2011 compared with January 2010. Business services and finance made the biggest contribution with an increase of 2%.

November Milk Supply Increase

The latest milk statistics released by Defra show that in November 2010 wholesale milk deliveries in the UK were 34.3m litres per day on average an increase of an average 1.5m litres per day on November 2009.

Deprivation In England In 2010

The Department for Communities and Local Government recently released updates for the indices of deprivation for 2007. They measure relative levels of deprivation in small areas of England called Lower layer Super Ouput Areas (LSOAs).

The key results included tha fact that over 5m people lived in the most deprived areas in England and 38% of these were income deprived in 2008. The most deprived areas of England in terms of high proportions of LSOAs were Liverpool (51%), Middlesbrough (47%), Manchester (46%), Knowsley (45%), Hull (43%), Hackney (42%) and Tower Hamlets (40%).

Most of the deprived areas are urban (98%) but pockets of deprivation exist in rural areas. Over half of Local Authorities (56%) contain at least one LSOA of the 10% most deprived in England. Many of the most deprived areas of 2007 are still among the most deprived in 2010. The percentage is very high at 88%. 5,055,000 people live in the most deprived areas and 1,919,000 are income deprived.

The indices are concerned with deprivation not affluence, they refer to unment needs caused by lack of all kinds of resources not just financial, but not everyone in the deprived areas will be deprived themselves.

The most deprived LSOA in England is to the east of Jaywick in Clacton on Sea and the least deprived in north west of Chorleywood. Both of these areas are in the East of England. Over half (52%) of the 1% most deprived areas are in the North West, 17% in Yorkshire and The Humber and 12% in the North East and 35% of the most deprived areas are also in the North West, 18% in Yorkshire and The Humber, 17% in the West Midlands and 10% in the North East. The highest proportion of LSOAs that are the least deprived were in Hart (77%), Wokingham (69%), Surrey Heath (58%), Elmbridge (57%) and Waverley (51%).

The largest rductions were in the London area (80 LSOAs, -17%). The largest increases were in the West Midlands (36 LSOAs, 7%) and the South East (29 LSOAs, 31%).