Thursday, 27 May 2010
Investment Up On Quarter But Down On Year
Provisional estimates for business investment for the first quarter of 2010 from the ONS say that investment has risen by 6% to £28,974m. It is 11% lower than Q1 2009. Investment in manufacturing has fallen by 9% over the quarter to £2,388m and by 29.3% since Q1 2009.
Increase In Deficit In April
The public sector finances provisional estimates for April from the ONS say that there was a current budget deficit of £9.3bn in April 2010 and net borrowing (PSNB) of £10bn. In April 2009 the budget deficit was £7.6bn and net borrowing was £8.8bn. At the end of April net debt (PSND) was £893.4bn equivalent to 62.1% of GDP compared to £755.4bn and 53.9% last year. If financial interventions are excluded PSNB was £11.12bn and PSND was £772bn or 53.8%.
Wednesday, 19 May 2010
EU External Trade In March
The euro area trade balance first estimate gave a 4.5bn euro surplus with the rest of the world in March 2010. It was 1.6bn euros in March 2009 and 2.4bn in February 2010, revised from 2.6bn euros. The EU27 had an estimated 7.1bn euro deficit in March 2010 compared with -9.2bn euros deficit in March 2009. The deficit was 6.5bn euros in February 2010, revised from 6bn euros, compared with -10.8bn in February 2009.
The euro area consists of the 16 members states that have adopted the euro as their currency.
The euro area consists of the 16 members states that have adopted the euro as their currency.
European Annual Inflation Goes Up To 1.5%
Annual inflation in the euro area went up to 1.5% in April from 1.4% in March, according to the HICP from Eurostat. The monthly rate was 0.5% in April 2010. EU annual inflation was up to 2% in April from 1.9% in March. Last year it was 1.3%. The monthly inflation rate was 0.4%.
At the national level, the lowest rate of HICP inflation was in Latvia with -2.8% and then Ireland with -2.5%. They were the only negative rates this month. The highest rates of inflation were in Hungary 5.7%, Greece 4.7% and Romania with an inflation rate of 4.2%.
The main components contributions were from energy 9.1%, transport 5.9% and alcohol and tobacco with 4.2%. The lowest contributions were from recreation and culture -1%, communications -0.6% and food with a negative percentage of 0.2%.
At the national level, the lowest rate of HICP inflation was in Latvia with -2.8% and then Ireland with -2.5%. They were the only negative rates this month. The highest rates of inflation were in Hungary 5.7%, Greece 4.7% and Romania with an inflation rate of 4.2%.
The main components contributions were from energy 9.1%, transport 5.9% and alcohol and tobacco with 4.2%. The lowest contributions were from recreation and culture -1%, communications -0.6% and food with a negative percentage of 0.2%.
CPI Sharp Rise To 3.7%
The CPI rose from 3.4% in the year to March 2010 to 3.7% this month. It was 3% in February. The largest upward contribution came from clothing and footwear within which the largest effect was made by women's garments. Other significant contributions came from food and non-alcoholic beverages, in particular food but no one item within the food category, alcoholic beverages and tobacco (2.1%), miscellaneous goods and services (0.8%) and restaurants and hotels.
The RPI rose by 5.3% in the year to April up from 4.4% in the year to March 2010. Tne RPIX rose by 5.4% from 4.8% in March.
The RPI rose by 5.3% in the year to April up from 4.4% in the year to March 2010. Tne RPIX rose by 5.4% from 4.8% in March.
Thursday, 13 May 2010
Trade Deficit
The trade deficit in March was £3.7bn compared with £2.2bn in February. On a quarterly basis the trade deficit for the first quarter (Q1) was £9.7bn compared with £8.7bn for Q4 2009. The trade surplus in services was valued at £3.8bn the trade deficit in goods was £7.5bn in March 2010 compared with £4.1bn and £6.3bn respectively in February.
In terms of changes in commodity value in March oil exports increased by £198m and exports of intermediate goods by £133m, chemicals imports decreased by £314m in value. The value of imports of intermediate goods increased by £268m and cars by £211m. All categories reported an increase in the value of imports during March. The change in the value exports of oil for the quarter was an increase of £511m. The value of consumer goods exports increased £372m. Exports of cars decreased in value by £236m and chemicals by £206m.
Geographical analyses show that within the G7 exports to the US fell by £0.5bn and imports from Germany increased in value by £0.3bn. Imports from Norway fell by £0.2bn during March compared with February. There were no significant changes in exports or imports within the G7 during the quarter but imports from Switzerland increased by £1.1bn, from Norway by £0.6bn and China by £0.5bn.
The volume of exports fell by 1.8% but imports increased by 3.5% with imports of basic materials up 6.5% and exports up 9%. Imports of cars went up 14.9% but exports fell by 5.2% in March. Over the quarter imports of basic materials increased 12.5% but exports fell 0.5%, imports of semi-manufactured goods increased by 13.2% but exports fell by 1.2%. Exports of consumer goods increased by 7.9%.
There was an increase in the terms of trade in March as exports prices rose by 2.9% and import prices rose by 2.7%. Over the quarter the terms of trade increased because export prices rose by 2.7% and import prices rose by 2.4%.
In terms of changes in commodity value in March oil exports increased by £198m and exports of intermediate goods by £133m, chemicals imports decreased by £314m in value. The value of imports of intermediate goods increased by £268m and cars by £211m. All categories reported an increase in the value of imports during March. The change in the value exports of oil for the quarter was an increase of £511m. The value of consumer goods exports increased £372m. Exports of cars decreased in value by £236m and chemicals by £206m.
Geographical analyses show that within the G7 exports to the US fell by £0.5bn and imports from Germany increased in value by £0.3bn. Imports from Norway fell by £0.2bn during March compared with February. There were no significant changes in exports or imports within the G7 during the quarter but imports from Switzerland increased by £1.1bn, from Norway by £0.6bn and China by £0.5bn.
The volume of exports fell by 1.8% but imports increased by 3.5% with imports of basic materials up 6.5% and exports up 9%. Imports of cars went up 14.9% but exports fell by 5.2% in March. Over the quarter imports of basic materials increased 12.5% but exports fell 0.5%, imports of semi-manufactured goods increased by 13.2% but exports fell by 1.2%. Exports of consumer goods increased by 7.9%.
There was an increase in the terms of trade in March as exports prices rose by 2.9% and import prices rose by 2.7%. Over the quarter the terms of trade increased because export prices rose by 2.7% and import prices rose by 2.4%.
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
2.51 Million Unemployed People
Unemployment increased by 53,000 to 2.51 million over the three months to March. The unemployment rate was 8% in March 2010. It is the highest number of unemployed people since December 1994. The number of people unemployed for over 12 months was 757,000 the highest since May 1997. The inactivity rate was up 0.2% to 21.5% with an increase of 88,000 to 8.17 million people of working age economically inactive. The number of vacancies went down 6,000 to 475,000 over the quarter.
Total pay (including bonuses) increased 4% for the three months to March 2010. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) increased by 1.9% from 1.7% in February 2010. Average total pay was £459/week and average regular pay £429/week. Total hours worked per week were 908.4 million with a weekly average of 31.6 in the three months to March 2010.
The public sector employed 6.10 million people and the private sector 22.76 million in December 2009. Average public sector total pay was £467/week and average regular pay was £459/week. Average private sector total pay was £463/week and regular pay £421/week in the three months to March 2010.
Total pay (including bonuses) increased 4% for the three months to March 2010. Regular pay (excluding bonuses) increased by 1.9% from 1.7% in February 2010. Average total pay was £459/week and average regular pay £429/week. Total hours worked per week were 908.4 million with a weekly average of 31.6 in the three months to March 2010.
The public sector employed 6.10 million people and the private sector 22.76 million in December 2009. Average public sector total pay was £467/week and average regular pay was £459/week. Average private sector total pay was £463/week and regular pay £421/week in the three months to March 2010.
People Spending But Less Confident
The value of sales on the High Street during April fell 2.3% on a like-for-like basis and 0.2% on a total basis according to the British Retail Consortium's Retail Sales Monitor. Over the three months from February to April food sales increased 0.9%, non-food 2.1% and all categories 1.6% on a like-for-like basis. On a total basis food increased by 2.9%, non-food by 4.4% and all categories by 3.8%. Non-food non-store sales, which include the Internet, mail order and telesales, were 15% up in April on last year but used more promotions to maintain sales.
GDP Rose 0.2% In Europe In First Quarter
GDP rose by 0.2% in Q1 2010 compared with the previous quarter in both the euro area and the EU27 according to Eurostat. Compared with the same quarter in the previous year GDP increased by 0.5% in the euro area and by 0.3% in the EU27.
US GDP rose 0.8% Q1 2010 on Q4 2009 and by 2.5% in Q1 2010 on Q1 2009. In EU27, Slovakia's GDP rose by 4.6% and Latvia's fell by 5.1%. In the euro area, Germany's GDP rose by 1.5% and Greece's fell by 2.3%.
US GDP rose 0.8% Q1 2010 on Q4 2009 and by 2.5% in Q1 2010 on Q1 2009. In EU27, Slovakia's GDP rose by 4.6% and Latvia's fell by 5.1%. In the euro area, Germany's GDP rose by 1.5% and Greece's fell by 2.3%.
Euro Industries Produce 1.3% Growth
Eurostat published figures show the euro area increased industrial production by 1.3% in March 2010 compared with February and the EU27 managed 1.2%. On an annual basis the euro area increased production by 6.9% in March 2010 and the EU27 by 6% compared with March 2009.
Looking at the main industrial groupings on the monthly basis, capital goods increased by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.2% in EU27. Durable consumer goods increased by 0.6% in the euro area. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU27. Intermediate goods rose 0.5 and 0.8% respectively. Energy production fell by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
On annual comparisons intermediate goods rose 11.7% in the euro area and 10.6% in the EU27, capital goods rose by 4.5% and 4.9% respectively and non-durable consumer goods rose 4.6% and 3.2% with durable consumer goods rising by 2.2% and 3.8%. Energy increased production by 4.9% in the euro area and 2.9% in the EU27 over the year between March 2009 and March 2010.
The country with the biggest increase in production over the month according to the survey was Latvia with 9.9% then Portugal with 7.7%. The Czech Republic reported the smallest increase with 0.7%. The biggest decrease in production was in Ireland with a fall of 2.6%. Over the year the largest increase was in Estonia with 11.6% and the biggest decrease was in Greece with 4.5%. Latvia and Poland also had large increases in production over the year on 11.4% and 11.2%. Denmark's production fell by 1.9%. Norway, a member of EFTA and not the European Union, reported a decrease of 5.1%.
Looking at the main industrial groupings on the monthly basis, capital goods increased by 1.5% in the euro area and by 1.2% in EU27. Durable consumer goods increased by 0.6% in the euro area. Non-durable consumer goods increased by 1.2% in the euro area and by 1.1% in the EU27. Intermediate goods rose 0.5 and 0.8% respectively. Energy production fell by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively.
On annual comparisons intermediate goods rose 11.7% in the euro area and 10.6% in the EU27, capital goods rose by 4.5% and 4.9% respectively and non-durable consumer goods rose 4.6% and 3.2% with durable consumer goods rising by 2.2% and 3.8%. Energy increased production by 4.9% in the euro area and 2.9% in the EU27 over the year between March 2009 and March 2010.
The country with the biggest increase in production over the month according to the survey was Latvia with 9.9% then Portugal with 7.7%. The Czech Republic reported the smallest increase with 0.7%. The biggest decrease in production was in Ireland with a fall of 2.6%. Over the year the largest increase was in Estonia with 11.6% and the biggest decrease was in Greece with 4.5%. Latvia and Poland also had large increases in production over the year on 11.4% and 11.2%. Denmark's production fell by 1.9%. Norway, a member of EFTA and not the European Union, reported a decrease of 5.1%.
Tuesday, 11 May 2010
Less Agricultural Land Used In Development
The majority of the land use change statistics (LUCS) for land changing to residential use are for 2008. The LUCS have 24 land use categories and 58% of dwellings were built on land previously classed as residential, agricultural, vacant or derelict in 2008. The remaining 42% were built on the remaining 20 land use categories.
In 2008, 12% of dwellings were built on previously agricultural land compared to 14% in 2007, a fall of 2%. There has been a general trend since 1998 to use less agricultural land for new dwellings in favour of previously residential land.
Statistics for changes in the use of previously developed land are for 2007 when an estimated 55% of land changing to developed use was previously developed and 35% was previously agricultural land or agricultural buildings.
Provisional estimates also say that the average density of housing increased from 43 dwellings per hectare in 2008 to 45 dwellings/hectare in 2009. The Green Belt has seen an increase in the percentage of land changing to residential use from 5% in 2007 to 7% in 2008. In 2008, 2% of dwellings were built within the Green Belt which is unchanged since 2004.
In 2008, 12% of dwellings were built on previously agricultural land compared to 14% in 2007, a fall of 2%. There has been a general trend since 1998 to use less agricultural land for new dwellings in favour of previously residential land.
Statistics for changes in the use of previously developed land are for 2007 when an estimated 55% of land changing to developed use was previously developed and 35% was previously agricultural land or agricultural buildings.
Provisional estimates also say that the average density of housing increased from 43 dwellings per hectare in 2008 to 45 dwellings/hectare in 2009. The Green Belt has seen an increase in the percentage of land changing to residential use from 5% in 2007 to 7% in 2008. In 2008, 2% of dwellings were built within the Green Belt which is unchanged since 2004.
OECD Points To An Expansion Slowdown
The Composite Leading Indicators from the OECD for March 2010 suggest that where the economic expansion has been taking place there may be a slowdown in the pace. Most of the signs of expansion and recovery say the OECD have been tentative but in France and Italy the signs are stronger. There is also a possibility that expansion may also be slowing in Brazil and China.
The CLI indicator for the OECD area as a whole was 0.6 points up in March 2010 with the US increasing by 0.8 and Japan by 0.9 points. The euro area increased by 0.5. Brazil and China both decreased by 0.3 points indicating the possible halt to expansion in China and to recovery in Brazil. India and Russia increased slightly by 0.3 and 0.6 points respectively.
The CLI indicator for the OECD area as a whole was 0.6 points up in March 2010 with the US increasing by 0.8 and Japan by 0.9 points. The euro area increased by 0.5. Brazil and China both decreased by 0.3 points indicating the possible halt to expansion in China and to recovery in Brazil. India and Russia increased slightly by 0.3 and 0.6 points respectively.
Manufacturing Index Up In March
The ONS' Index of Production statistical release tells us that seasonally adjusted index rose by 2% in March 2010 to 89.4 compared with March 2009 and the manufacturing index rose by 3.3% to 92.0.
The manufacturing index component sub-sectors output increased in 9 of the 13 sub-sectors and decreased in 4 sub-sectors. The largest increases were in transport equipment with a rise of 16.9% and basic metals and metal products with 4.6%. The manufacture of motor vehicles had the largest rise within the transport equipment industries with 52.3%. Within basic metals and metal products the largest rise was in the manufacture of cutlery, tools and general hardware with 20.4%.
In the other broad industry groups, mining and quarrying fell by 3.1% and the electricity, gas and water supply industries fell 1.8% compared with March 2009.
In the main industrial groupings consumer durables rose 2% from 0.2% in the previous month on month. Capital goods rose 8.7% from 5.7% in March 2009 and intermediate goods rose 1.2% after a fall of 2% the previous month.
The manufacturing index component sub-sectors output increased in 9 of the 13 sub-sectors and decreased in 4 sub-sectors. The largest increases were in transport equipment with a rise of 16.9% and basic metals and metal products with 4.6%. The manufacture of motor vehicles had the largest rise within the transport equipment industries with 52.3%. Within basic metals and metal products the largest rise was in the manufacture of cutlery, tools and general hardware with 20.4%.
In the other broad industry groups, mining and quarrying fell by 3.1% and the electricity, gas and water supply industries fell 1.8% compared with March 2009.
In the main industrial groupings consumer durables rose 2% from 0.2% in the previous month on month. Capital goods rose 8.7% from 5.7% in March 2009 and intermediate goods rose 1.2% after a fall of 2% the previous month.
Friday, 7 May 2010
Factory Gate Prices Increase Again
Output prices for home sales of manufactured goods went up 5.7% over the year to April 2010 compared to 5% to March. Excluding excise duties changes the increase was 5.3% over the year and 1.3% over the month. The monthly index rose 1.4% between March and April.
Input prices went up 13.1% in the year and 0.6% over the month. The increase mainly reflects the increases in the price of crude oil and imported metals. Imported materials increased in price by 0.8% between March and April.
Input prices went up 13.1% in the year and 0.6% over the month. The increase mainly reflects the increases in the price of crude oil and imported metals. Imported materials increased in price by 0.8% between March and April.
Shop Prices Up 2% In April
Shop price inflation went up to 2% in April 2010 from 1.2% in March according to the British Retail Consortium's Shop Price Index. Both food inflation and non-food inflation went up 2%. A BRC spokesperson said that even though the index is up some produce is cheaper than it was last year. It should also be remembered that last month's index was a three year low.
Wednesday, 5 May 2010
Increase In European Industrial PPI In March
The monthly industrial producer price index for the euro area went up 0.6% and the EU27 0.7% in March 2010 compared with February 2010. Price rises in the energy sector increased by 1.7% i the euro area and 1.6% in the EU27. Durable consumer goods also rose by 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27. Capital goods were unchanged in the euro area but increased by 0.2% in the EU27. Non-durables fell by 0.1% and remained stable respectively.
The index went up by 0.9% in the euro area and 1.7% in the EU27 in March 2010 compared with March 2009. The total industry index excluding energy 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27. The prices index in the energy sector rose by 2.8% and 5.12% respectively. Intermediate goods rose by 0.8% in both zones. Durables increased by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU27. Non-durables fell by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Capital goods fell by 0.5% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU27.
The index went up by 0.9% in the euro area and 1.7% in the EU27 in March 2010 compared with March 2009. The total industry index excluding energy 0.1% in the euro area and 0.3% in the EU27. The prices index in the energy sector rose by 2.8% and 5.12% respectively. Intermediate goods rose by 0.8% in both zones. Durables increased by 0.3% in the euro area and 0.5% in the EU27. Non-durables fell by 0.5% and 0.2% respectively. Capital goods fell by 0.5% in the euro area and 0.1% in the EU27.
Eurpean Retail Trade Stable In March
In Europe, retail trade in both the euro area and the EU27 remained stable during March 2010 on February 2010 according to Eurostat. The volume of retail trade in March 2010 decreased by 0.1% on March 2009 in the euro area but increased by 0.3% in the EU27. During February 2010 retail trade volume fell 0.2% in the euro area but grew by 0.3% in the EU27.
The food drinks and tobacco sector fell by 0.2% in March 2010 compared with February 2010 in the euro area but increased by 0.3% in the EU27. The non-food sector decreased by 0.1% in euro area but increased by 0.2% in EU27. Over the year, food, drink and tobacco increased by 0.9% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU27. The non-food sector was unchanged in the euro area but grew by 1.4% in the EU27.
The food drinks and tobacco sector fell by 0.2% in March 2010 compared with February 2010 in the euro area but increased by 0.3% in the EU27. The non-food sector decreased by 0.1% in euro area but increased by 0.2% in EU27. Over the year, food, drink and tobacco increased by 0.9% in the euro area and 0.6% in the EU27. The non-food sector was unchanged in the euro area but grew by 1.4% in the EU27.
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