Wednesday, 29 April 2009
Food Stores Lead Rise In Sales
An increase of 1.3% by food stores were mainly responsible for the 1.5% growth in retail sales for March compared to March last year while overall retail sales performance seems to be mixed. Non-specialised stores fell slightly but total retail sales in March were up by 0.3% on last month and 2% higher in the quarter to March. Internet sales were 3.4% of total sales in March at a total of circa £172 million.
Worst May Be Over
The worst of the decline may be over. Firms certainly hope so. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey saw demand fall by the biggest margin for 30 years as 60% of businesses reported a fall in the volume of new orders. The fall has resulted in continued job losses but the falls the worst since 1991 are expected to slow reduce the rate of job losses. The CBI estimates 62,000 job losses in first quarter of 2009 anmd estimates another 51,00 in the second quarter. The total unemployed in manufacturing will then reach 2,666,000. Prices are aso expected to fall again during the next three months.
Fall In GDP But Expected To Slow Down
GDP fell for the second quarter in a row in last quarter of 2008 according to the Office for National Statistics. It had risen every quarter since the first quarter of 2007. The preliminary estimate shows that the chained volume estimates decreased by 1.9% during Q1 2009 on the previous quarter. It has been put down to lower activity in both services and production. The CBI said they expected 1.8% and expect a contraction of the economy by 3.9%this year. They do expect the decline to slow over the next few months.
Producer Prices Up And Down
The producer prices output index went up 2.0% on the year to March compared with 3.0% in February. Month on month the rise was 0.1%. Input prices fell by 0.4% annually but have risen 1% since February. Petroleum products have afllen 17.7% since last year while other product groups in the index have risen. Chemical products and transport the biggest risers. Electrical and optical fell during the month to March by 0.6%. The biggest falls in input prices were the crude oil product group by 36.6% over the year to March while fuels were the biggest risers. Fuels prices fell by 5.7% during March while crude oils gained the most by 7.1%.
Thursday, 23 April 2009
Public Sector Finances
Recently published statistics for public sector finances show that in March the public sector had a current budget deficit of £11.6 billion and a current budget deficit of £52.3 over the year 2008-9. This is a £47.0 billion higher deficit than in the same period of 2007/08, when there was a deficit of £5.3 billion. The monthly figures show a £7.7 billion higher deficit than in March 2008, when there was a deficit of £3.9 billion. Public sector net borrowing was £19.1 billion. This is £7.6 billion higher net borrowing than in March 2008, when net borrowing was £11.5 billion. Public sector net borrowing for the year 2008-9 was £90.0 billion. This was a £55.3 billion higher net borrowing than in the same period of 2007/08, when there was net borrowing of £34.6 billion;
Of the total, central government current receipts 2008-9 £492.1 and current spending £543.5bn (including depreciation). At the end of March public sector net investment was £37.7bn for 2008-9.
Public sector net debt (accruals based) was £743.6 billion or 50.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Public sector net debt excluding financial sector interventions was £609.1 billion or 41.7 per cent of GDP. The public sector net cash requirement for March was £28.4 billion, £16.9 billion higher than March last year. The public sector net cash requirement for the year to date was £59.9 billion. This amounts to a £38.3 billion higher net cash requirement compared with the same period of 2007/08 when there was a net cash requirement of £21.6 billion.
Contributions by the Government to banks account for most of the extra year-on-year debt.
(Office for National Statistics & Institute for Fiscal Studies)
Of the total, central government current receipts 2008-9 £492.1 and current spending £543.5bn (including depreciation). At the end of March public sector net investment was £37.7bn for 2008-9.
Public sector net debt (accruals based) was £743.6 billion or 50.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP). Public sector net debt excluding financial sector interventions was £609.1 billion or 41.7 per cent of GDP. The public sector net cash requirement for March was £28.4 billion, £16.9 billion higher than March last year. The public sector net cash requirement for the year to date was £59.9 billion. This amounts to a £38.3 billion higher net cash requirement compared with the same period of 2007/08 when there was a net cash requirement of £21.6 billion.
Contributions by the Government to banks account for most of the extra year-on-year debt.
(Office for National Statistics & Institute for Fiscal Studies)
Monday, 20 April 2009
Business And Economic Indicators
Business and economic indicators are very useful in monitoring and steering a business or an economy. Indices can be developed to monitor almost anything. Some recent figures from various sources may show how they can help give a sense of direction.
UK retail sales fell 1.2% on a like-for-like basis and 0.6% total compared with March last year. Food sales were slightly up. Non-food non-store sales, a part of total sales and an index that includes Internet sales, were 10.8% up on last year. The timing of Easter made comparisons with March last year difficult because Easter was included in last years March calculations (Interpreted from BRC figures) but will be in April's this year.
The CBI's March survey reported that the majority of retailers said year-on-year sales for March were down but that expectations had been higher. They do not expect any improvement next month.
Manufacturing output decreased by 6.5% in February. The Index is at 90.4, 12.2% down on the same p[eriod last year. Between January and February output decreased by 0.9% from revised figures. Falls were mainly in the car industry, metals and machinery industries (Interpreted from ONS figures).
Producer output prices rose by 2% in the year to March 2009. The Index rose 0.1% from February to March 2009. Excluding food and beverages the rise was 3.3% over the year and 0.2% February to March. Input prices fell 0.4% over the year but rose by 1% from February to March 2009. Input prices excluding food and beverages rose by 7.4% in the year to March and 0.2% February to March (Interpreted from ONS figures).
Consumer confidence is increasing gradually. It is the highest since May 2008 and has risen 5 points to -30 according to NOP. It is still well down on March 2008 by 11 points but the recession hadn't taken hold then. Confidence in the general economic situation is up 7 points to -75 but it is still 32 points down on this time last year. Expectations for the next 12 months have increased by 9 points. Consumers are also more confident about saving than last month but again well down on this time last year (Interpreted from the Consumer Confidence Barometer, NOP/GfK).
The Net Rate of Return of UK companies in private non-financial category for Q4, 2008 was 12.8%. The revised estimate for Q3 was 13.7% or down 0.9%. NRR for manufacturing was 8.5% and services 15.8%. The annual net rate of return for 2008 was 13.8%. It compares with 14.8% of 2007. The Net Rate of Return is an indicator of the profitability of a company (An interpretation of ONS figures).
These indicators can tell us about a business or an economy. They may be accurate, they may not but even if not, that might tell us something about the researchers and/or their methodology.
UK retail sales fell 1.2% on a like-for-like basis and 0.6% total compared with March last year. Food sales were slightly up. Non-food non-store sales, a part of total sales and an index that includes Internet sales, were 10.8% up on last year. The timing of Easter made comparisons with March last year difficult because Easter was included in last years March calculations (Interpreted from BRC figures) but will be in April's this year.
The CBI's March survey reported that the majority of retailers said year-on-year sales for March were down but that expectations had been higher. They do not expect any improvement next month.
Manufacturing output decreased by 6.5% in February. The Index is at 90.4, 12.2% down on the same p[eriod last year. Between January and February output decreased by 0.9% from revised figures. Falls were mainly in the car industry, metals and machinery industries (Interpreted from ONS figures).
Producer output prices rose by 2% in the year to March 2009. The Index rose 0.1% from February to March 2009. Excluding food and beverages the rise was 3.3% over the year and 0.2% February to March. Input prices fell 0.4% over the year but rose by 1% from February to March 2009. Input prices excluding food and beverages rose by 7.4% in the year to March and 0.2% February to March (Interpreted from ONS figures).
Consumer confidence is increasing gradually. It is the highest since May 2008 and has risen 5 points to -30 according to NOP. It is still well down on March 2008 by 11 points but the recession hadn't taken hold then. Confidence in the general economic situation is up 7 points to -75 but it is still 32 points down on this time last year. Expectations for the next 12 months have increased by 9 points. Consumers are also more confident about saving than last month but again well down on this time last year (Interpreted from the Consumer Confidence Barometer, NOP/GfK).
The Net Rate of Return of UK companies in private non-financial category for Q4, 2008 was 12.8%. The revised estimate for Q3 was 13.7% or down 0.9%. NRR for manufacturing was 8.5% and services 15.8%. The annual net rate of return for 2008 was 13.8%. It compares with 14.8% of 2007. The Net Rate of Return is an indicator of the profitability of a company (An interpretation of ONS figures).
These indicators can tell us about a business or an economy. They may be accurate, they may not but even if not, that might tell us something about the researchers and/or their methodology.
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